STAR POWER PART 2 – Computing SUPER STARDOM

If you haven’t read PART 1 of this article, click here

In continuation to our first article in this series, here’s the next write up which will guide us in calculating the X-Factors and Star-Power. The prime consideration which we’ve made is to be as transparent as possible so that there’s practically nothing hidden from our readers. The exceptional response from our readers in the first article helped us a lot in improving our system.

The first thing which we need to understand is that the 10 X-Factors don’t have equal impact on the boxoffice. So, we need to identify what is the measure of impact of all these X-Factors.

X-FACTOR List with corresponding Impact

  • Release Date [+/- 25%]
  • Franchise [0 to +25%]
  • Response to Theatrical Trailer [+/- 15%]
  • Music [+/- 7.5%]
  • Gap between Releases [+/- 7.5%]
  • Genre [+/- 4%]
  • Banner [+/- 4%]
  • Co-Star [+/- 4%]
  • Director [+/- 4%]
  • Ticket Prices [+/- 4%]

TOTAL IMPACT RANGE OF X-FACTORS      : -75% to +100%       

As explained in the first article, wherever an actor has an advantage, the X-Factor shall become negative and vice versa. Once you have X-Factor Figure, just subtract it from Opening collections and you will get the Star Power.

The +100% and -75% effects are hypothetical scenarios and 99% of the times the impact shall be in between these two yard-stick parameters.

Now that we’ve the impact measures, let’s do a case study of all the X-Factors and analyze Advantages/ Disadvantages in each category.

NOTE: The impact of X-Factors and the Advantages/ Disadvantages in each X-Factor category is bound to change time and again depending upon industry standards.

X-FACTOR COMPUTATION

1. RELEASE DATE

RELEASE DATE ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)
EXCELLENT ADVANTAGE -25%
GOOD ADVANTAGE -12.5%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +12.5%
MAJOR DISADVANTAGE +25%

It’s an established fact that Release Date has become the key to grand openings and irrespective of all other prospects, business is almost sure to get escalated for any film on holidays. This is the reason why there is competition nowadays to block the perfect release date as soon as the project is announced. Please find below various categories of release dates.

  • Excellent – Advantage – NATIONAL HOLIDAY
    Diwali, Eid, Christmas, Independence-Day, Republic-Day, Gandhi Jayanti
    Ex: Happy New Year
  • Good Advantage – FAVOURABLE PERIOD/ PARTIAL HOLIDAY
    Post IPL Weekend, Valentine’s Day, Good Friday, May Day, etc.
    Ex: Holiday – A Soldier Is Never Off Duty
  • Average – NORMAL RELEASE
    [Any normal Friday] Ex: PK
  • Disadvantage – UNFAVORABLE PERIOD
    Pre-Eid, Diwali Puja, Crucial Cricket Match etc.
    Ex: Kick
  • Major Disadvantage – CLASH
    A clash resulting in division of considerable number of screens
    Ex: Gadar and Lagaan

Another interesting point which is worth mentioning is that sometimes an X-Factor can neutralize on its own. For Example, Bang Bang was released on Gandhi Jayanti 2014, so its Release Date total should be -25%, but it also faced a clash with Haider (imposing a +25%). So for Bang Bang we will take Release Date X-Factor as zero, i.e. normal.

2. FRANCHISE

FRANCHISE ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of  Opening Day Collections)
EXCELLENT ADVANTAGE -25%
GOOD ADVANTAGE -12.5%
AVERAGE 0

Hit Franchises have tremendous recall value amongst the audience. The factors which contribute in escalation of appeal/ buzz of a brand can be attributed as:

1. Goodwill from Theatrical Word of Mouth
2. Success on Television (Satellite TRPs)

Based upon these factors, we’ve divided popular franchises into two groups as depicted below. Below groupings have few examples for comparison and franchises shall be added/ removed to this as we move further.

  • Excellent Advantage:
    Dhoom, Munnabhai, Krrish, Welcome, Dabangg, Hera Pheri
  • Good Advantage:
    Singham, Golmaal, Housefull, Don, Tanu Weds Manu, Masti, etc.
  • Average:
    Any Normal Release that doesn’t belongs to any franchise.

3. RESPONSE TO THEATRICAL TRAILER

RESPONSE TO TRAILER ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of  Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -15%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +15%

We received many comments in our first article highlighting two important points – ‘Content’ and ‘Perception amongst audience’. Well, normal movie-goers judge any film’s content and form their perception only on the basis of that film’s first theatrical trailer. It’s something like judging a book from its cover.

  • Advantage – VERY GOOD TRAILER
    Ex: Bang-Bang, Kick
  • Average – MEDIOCRE TRAILER
    Ex: Happy New Year, Jai Ho
  • Disadvantage – POOR TRAILER
    Ex: It’s Entertainment

4. MUSIC

RESPONSE TO MUSIC ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of  Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -7.5%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +7.5%

“Get few chartbusters in your film and a good opening is very much on.” Strength of good music converting into footfalls is not hidden from anybody. We’ve 3 categories under this factor as well.

  • Advantage – CHARTBUSTER MUSIC
    Ex: Happy New Year [Lovely Song]
  • Average – MEDIOCRE ALBUM
    Ex: PK
  • Disadvantage – POOR
    Ex: Action Jackson

5. TIME GAP SINCE LAST RELEASE

TIME GAP ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -7.5%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +7.5%
  • Advantage – Time gap between Current and Last Release > 6 months
  • Average – Time gap between Current and Last Release = 6 months
  • Disadvantage – Time gap between Current and Last Release < 6 months

We believe that an actor can very much maintain his stardom with 2 releases per year, i.e. a release every 6 months. A film’s appeal and buzz diminishes gradually if its lead actor has over exposed himself with frequent releases and vice versa. Akshay Kumar and Ajay Devgn are the two stars who have mostly experienced this wrath in the recent past.

Consider Salman Khan in 2014 as an example. For Jai Ho, this X-Factor would be -7.5% (as his last release was Dabangg-2 which was released more than 6 months back) and for Kick it would be 0 (as Kick released exactly 6 months after Jai Ho).

6. GENRE

GENRE ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of  Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -4%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +4%
  • Advantage – Action, Family Films
  • Average – Comedy, Romance, Comedy-Drama, Romance-Drama
  • Disadvantage – Drama, Social, Sports, Suspense-Drama, Thriller-Drama, Biography

Just like all other X-Factors, the genres shall also keep getting moved from Advantage to Disadvantage as per the industry trends.

We would like to mention here that some films might fall under more than one category and then we’ll have to adjust the Genre X-Factor accordingly. For an instance a Jai Ho or a Gabbar Is Back is an Action Film with a social issue, Corruption, as back drop. So, instead of -4%, we’ll take -2%.

7. BANNER

BANNER ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -4%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +4%
  • Advantage – Yash Raj Films, Dharma Productions, UTV Motion Pictures
  • Average – EROS International, Vishesh Films, Nadiadwala Grandson, Balaji Motion Pictures, Viacom18, Red Chillies Entertainment.
  • Disadvantage – Others

The Banner is responsible for selecting right scripts, designing a good marketing strategy and increasing the production value.

Nowadays, the Distribution Company is as vital as the Makers of the film. In fact, on most of the occasions, Producers make good profits by selling their films at a very early stage and thus the Distribution Company is also involved in all the key decisions. Thus, firstly, Banner will include both the Producers & distributors. Secondly, we’ll consider the better of the two companies. Like for PK (Producer: Vidhu Vinod Chopra & Raju Hirani | Distributor: UTV) and Brothers (Producer: Dharma | Distributor: Fox Star), the X-Factor will be -4% as Top 3 Banners are associated in some way or the other.

8. CO-STAR

CO-STAR ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of  Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -4%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +4%
  • Advantage – Deepika Padukone, Katrina Kaif, Kareena Kapoor, Kangna Ranaut, Priyanka Chopra, Alia Bhatt
  • Average – Shraddha Kapoor, Madhuri Dixit, Aishwarya Rai, Kajol, Anushka Sharma
  • Disadvantage – Others

The Co-Stars can also contribute in bringing audience to the theatres, but contrary to the general perception, the effect is restricted and here’s an explanation to that. Deepika Padukone is arguably the No 1 actress in the industry today. But, on her own goodwill, she got an opening of just around 5 crore for Piku, which also had Amitabh Bachchan and Irfan Khan.

Another point worth mentioning is that here we’ve mainly considered the actresses, but there can be a Multi-Hero project. Like in Brothers, if we take only the actress, Jacqueline Fernandez would have Disadvantage on Akshay Kumar’s opening, but there’s another star in the form of Siddharth Malhotra who will surely contribute in footfalls. If we create a similar table for Actors, Akshay Kumar shall most probably fall in first category (Top 5) and Siddharth Malhotra in second (Rank 6-10). So, the Co-Star X-Factor in Brothers will turn out to be -2% for Akshay Kumar and -4% for Siddharth Malhotra.

9. DIRECTOR

DIRECTOR ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -4%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +4%
  • Advantage – Director with Success Rate > 50%. Example: Raju Hirani, Rohit Shetty
  • Average – Director with Success Rate = 50%. Example: Mohit Suri
  • Disadvantage – Director with Success Rate < 50% or Debutant. Example: Sajid-Farhad

10. TICKET PRICES

DIRECTOR ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -4%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +4%
  • Advantage – High Rates. Example: Singham Returns
  • Average – Normal Rates. Example: Action Jackson

Though, generally ticket prices are more or less similar to Release Date factor because Holiday/ Festival releases tend to have higher prices than normal ones. However, there might be special occurrences when festival/ holiday doesn’t falls on first day, still the rates are high. Kick (Eid Holiday on 2nd Day) and Brothers (Independence Day on 2nd Day), for an instance, fall in this category. This is the reason we’ve taken a separate parameter for ticket rates as well.

This is the theory and we’ve lots of practical stuff in store. We would soon come back with the actual Star Power Rankings of top stars. Till then keep surfing. This formula will be tweaked depending on the industry trends.

We hope that you will like our concept. Please share your feedback / suggestions in the comments section.

By Archit Mishra (Tweets @architmishra_06)

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132 Comments

  • Hatsss of to indicine and team…
    what a way to find out startom of our superstars….
    I can feel dat u and your team have did a lot of hardwork…
    will be egarly waiting for next article…

  • Gap formula os not justifiedis u have to work more on it how can u put ajay akhsay,salman srk,hr amir in same league every1 knows amir and hr get a huge advantage of gap in comparison to srk salman u have to add 1 year adjustment into it if not so u r saying jab tak hai jaan and talaash get a same gap advantage??

  • Gap formula is not justified so u r saying jab tak hai jaan and talaash have a same advantage??every1 knows amir and hr took a huge gap advantage in comparison to srk and salman

  • Great article Archit, well done!

    Profound analysis & detailed breakdown of all the important parameters to judge an individual’s superstardom, some of the factors can change slightly over a period of time but still these parameters can be more or less used as a standard measure to evaluate star power.

    If we take all these factors into consideration and take the actor’s last 5 movies then my analysis would be ( I would try to be as fair as possible setting aside my personal preferences to a large extent ):

    1.Salman khan :

    for movie Bajrangi bhaijaan :

    x-factor release date – +12.5%

    x-factor franchise – 0%

    x-factor response to theatrical trailer – (-9%) as the trailer’s response was from average to good

    x-factor music – (-3.5%) as except for the chartbuster ‘selfie ley’ & 2 good songs BB’s music was just above average

    x-factor time gap – (-7.5%) from kick to BB

    x-factor genre +4%

    x-factor banner – 0%

    x-factor co-star – (-4%) for kareena

    x-factor director – (-4%)

    x-factor ticket prices -(-4%)

    so the total is 12.5+0-9-3.5-7.5+4+0-4-4-4 = -15.5 %

    Similarly for movie ‘kick’ , the total is 12.5+0-15-7.5+0-4+0+4+4-4 = -10 %

    For ‘jai ho’ it is 0+0+0+7-7.5-2+0+4+4+4 = 9.5% (jai ho’s music was almost as poor as action jackson’s music , indeed it was the most ridiculed & the most unsuccessful music album for a salman khan starrer since a long time)

    For ‘Dabaang 2’ , the total is 0-25+0-7.5+7.5-4+4+4+4-4 = -21%

    For ‘ek tha tiger’ the total is -25+0-15-7.5-7.5-4-4-4+0-4 = -71%

    (note: the more -ve the point the more advantage the movie had i.e ett had so many advantages over jai ho)

    So the grand total is (-15.5)+(-10)+9.5+(-21)+(-71) = -108%.

    The average rating for salman for his last 5 movies is (-108)/5 = -21.6%!

  • @Indicine : Where are my first two comments? There is no point in publishing the last comment when you have not published the first two ! Please publish them at earliest. Thanks

  • 11:01 am

    @kk r u mad. According to u emran’s hak is ahead then shahid’haider !!!!!!!!!!!!. Haider is just release in 1200 screens with tought competition from bang bang. And it is dark thriller drama. But hak is solo release in more than 2000 screens. And it is romance drama with good music.So get it bro.

  • @indicine:
    Only +-4% to co stars & heroines!!! If Deepika+multistarcast was not there in hny then it would not have collected even 30cr. Queen’s previous best was just 15cr (without Deepika). And Deepika’s best was 18cr (without queen). So, its clear Deepika was one of the main reason for hny’s record breaking opening..

  • @archit mishra:
    Don’t you think the budget or the scale with which a particular movie has been made also impacts the opening day collection??
    For ex: A high budget movie Dhoom 3 or a Bang Bang will look like a movie that deserves the price of a costly multiplex ticket whether the director is trustworthy or not!!

    Also,action films should be classified into 2 categories..if they are Kick,Dhoom 3,Bang Bang type entertainers they are meant for family audiences,kids will love the stunts but if they are Brothers or a commando or a force type of Raw gruesome action films filled with blood then female and family audiences pretty much stay away from them as with the case with Brothers recently.

  • now d article seems very gud…..but point is how u gonna measure d trailer effect..its very tough to calculate d trailer effect of a movie…waiting for d list..cum soon before PRDP release ….gudluck….

  • Also considering -12.50% for a film released on post IPL weekend..that’s way too much i think! It should be considered as a normal friday release,there is’nt holiday in any parts of the country,just bcoz few films have worked in past at this time.

  • I think this music factor should be as big as the trailer factor.

    Films like Roy,Yaariyaan did well despite poor trailer solely on the basis of music!

  • Continuing from the 1st part:

    2.Aamir khan:

    For movie PK the total is 0+0-10+0-7.5+0-4+0-4-4 = -29.5

    For ‘Dhoom 3’ the total is 0-25-10-7.5-7.5-4-4-4+4-4 = -62

    For Talaash it is 0+0-8+1-7.5+4+4-4+4+0 = -6.5

    For 3 idiots (as dhobi ghat was not aamir’s movie) it is -25+0-15-7.5-7.5+0-4-4-4-4 = -71

    For ‘Ghajini’ it is -25+0-15-7.5-7.5+0+4+4-4-4 = -55,

    Aamir’s grand total is (-224 ) & average per movie is -44.8

    3.srk :

    For ‘Happy new year’ the total is -25+0+0-7.5-7.5+0-4-4-4-4 = -56

    For CE it is -25+0-15-7.5-7.5+0-4-4-4-4 = -71

    For JTHJ , it is -25+0-15-7.5-7.5+0-4-4-4-4 = -71

    For Don 2 it is -25-12.5-15+0+7.5-4+0-4-4-4 = -61

    For Ra.1 it is -25+0-15-7.5-7.5-4+0-4+0-4 = -67

    So srk’s grand total is -326 and average is -65.2 !

  • in bang bang case i am not agree with u. u r showing us about clash but doesn’t matter as bang bang was released in 3800 screens and was action flicked and second one is that Haider was released in less than 1400 theatres and haider had dark themed movie drama genre only, that is suitable for only Adults.

  • As per indicine agar prdp solo nitin mukesh ka movie hota toh iska opening pe sirf 4’/, ka effect parta. How can it possible. Plz clarify.

  • A star is the one who dont need these advantages.PK would have done almost if we exclude Anushka and put any new comer.Little low even if take it to non holiday…These things are just shits.Mere excuses for those who dont have stardom.SRK,SK,AK,HR are the only stars of bollywood.Only content of the film can affect a star,nothing else.Give a movie with great content to these stars and forget about heroine,music,release date.

  • please post a article about how the movies of other superstars do if they release 4 movies a year, as I am pretty sure that there will be huge drop in box office figures because there will be no hype then.salman,aamir,srk movies just becomes a hypefest,don’t you think the real testimony of stardom is releasing back to back movies and still getting good openings and appreciation

  • As per indicine Agar dilwale me srk nahi raheta to iska opening day sirf 4’/, kam hota. How can it possible? Plz clarify.

  • @ wap4- your calculation is wrong because acording to this model bajrangi has only 1.5% advantage so after deduct this amount from 27 plus opening still he has 27 crore opening so this is the power of Salman for you and srk has more advantage and he have 22 approx opening after deducting his advantages.

  • What about promotions? It should be 5% too. Those who conspired step to door step to promote their movies like one of the highly respected khans who loves to attend birthday parties😁
    I also agree with one reader about action genre. They don’t appeal much too senoritas.

  • Franchise is it not too much? Eid Diwali Xmas should be the highest. Not independence day. It should fall under Good. We all saw what happened with brothers day1

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