STAR POWER PART 2 – Computing SUPER STARDOM

If you haven’t read PART 1 of this article, click here

In continuation to our first article in this series, here’s the next write up which will guide us in calculating the X-Factors and Star-Power. The prime consideration which we’ve made is to be as transparent as possible so that there’s practically nothing hidden from our readers. The exceptional response from our readers in the first article helped us a lot in improving our system.

The first thing which we need to understand is that the 10 X-Factors don’t have equal impact on the boxoffice. So, we need to identify what is the measure of impact of all these X-Factors.

X-FACTOR List with corresponding Impact

  • Release Date [+/- 25%]
  • Franchise [0 to +25%]
  • Response to Theatrical Trailer [+/- 15%]
  • Music [+/- 7.5%]
  • Gap between Releases [+/- 7.5%]
  • Genre [+/- 4%]
  • Banner [+/- 4%]
  • Co-Star [+/- 4%]
  • Director [+/- 4%]
  • Ticket Prices [+/- 4%]

TOTAL IMPACT RANGE OF X-FACTORS      : -75% to +100%       

As explained in the first article, wherever an actor has an advantage, the X-Factor shall become negative and vice versa. Once you have X-Factor Figure, just subtract it from Opening collections and you will get the Star Power.

The +100% and -75% effects are hypothetical scenarios and 99% of the times the impact shall be in between these two yard-stick parameters.

Now that we’ve the impact measures, let’s do a case study of all the X-Factors and analyze Advantages/ Disadvantages in each category.

NOTE: The impact of X-Factors and the Advantages/ Disadvantages in each X-Factor category is bound to change time and again depending upon industry standards.

X-FACTOR COMPUTATION

1. RELEASE DATE

RELEASE DATE ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)
EXCELLENT ADVANTAGE -25%
GOOD ADVANTAGE -12.5%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +12.5%
MAJOR DISADVANTAGE +25%

It’s an established fact that Release Date has become the key to grand openings and irrespective of all other prospects, business is almost sure to get escalated for any film on holidays. This is the reason why there is competition nowadays to block the perfect release date as soon as the project is announced. Please find below various categories of release dates.

  • Excellent – Advantage – NATIONAL HOLIDAY
    Diwali, Eid, Christmas, Independence-Day, Republic-Day, Gandhi Jayanti
    Ex: Happy New Year
  • Good Advantage – FAVOURABLE PERIOD/ PARTIAL HOLIDAY
    Post IPL Weekend, Valentine’s Day, Good Friday, May Day, etc.
    Ex: Holiday – A Soldier Is Never Off Duty
  • Average – NORMAL RELEASE
    [Any normal Friday] Ex: PK
  • Disadvantage – UNFAVORABLE PERIOD
    Pre-Eid, Diwali Puja, Crucial Cricket Match etc.
    Ex: Kick
  • Major Disadvantage – CLASH
    A clash resulting in division of considerable number of screens
    Ex: Gadar and Lagaan

Another interesting point which is worth mentioning is that sometimes an X-Factor can neutralize on its own. For Example, Bang Bang was released on Gandhi Jayanti 2014, so its Release Date total should be -25%, but it also faced a clash with Haider (imposing a +25%). So for Bang Bang we will take Release Date X-Factor as zero, i.e. normal.

2. FRANCHISE

FRANCHISE ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of  Opening Day Collections)
EXCELLENT ADVANTAGE -25%
GOOD ADVANTAGE -12.5%
AVERAGE 0

Hit Franchises have tremendous recall value amongst the audience. The factors which contribute in escalation of appeal/ buzz of a brand can be attributed as:

1. Goodwill from Theatrical Word of Mouth
2. Success on Television (Satellite TRPs)

Based upon these factors, we’ve divided popular franchises into two groups as depicted below. Below groupings have few examples for comparison and franchises shall be added/ removed to this as we move further.

  • Excellent Advantage:
    Dhoom, Munnabhai, Krrish, Welcome, Dabangg, Hera Pheri
  • Good Advantage:
    Singham, Golmaal, Housefull, Don, Tanu Weds Manu, Masti, etc.
  • Average:
    Any Normal Release that doesn’t belongs to any franchise.

3. RESPONSE TO THEATRICAL TRAILER

RESPONSE TO TRAILER ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of  Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -15%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +15%

We received many comments in our first article highlighting two important points – ‘Content’ and ‘Perception amongst audience’. Well, normal movie-goers judge any film’s content and form their perception only on the basis of that film’s first theatrical trailer. It’s something like judging a book from its cover.

  • Advantage – VERY GOOD TRAILER
    Ex: Bang-Bang, Kick
  • Average – MEDIOCRE TRAILER
    Ex: Happy New Year, Jai Ho
  • Disadvantage – POOR TRAILER
    Ex: It’s Entertainment

4. MUSIC

RESPONSE TO MUSIC ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of  Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -7.5%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +7.5%

“Get few chartbusters in your film and a good opening is very much on.” Strength of good music converting into footfalls is not hidden from anybody. We’ve 3 categories under this factor as well.

  • Advantage – CHARTBUSTER MUSIC
    Ex: Happy New Year [Lovely Song]
  • Average – MEDIOCRE ALBUM
    Ex: PK
  • Disadvantage – POOR
    Ex: Action Jackson

5. TIME GAP SINCE LAST RELEASE

TIME GAP ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -7.5%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +7.5%
  • Advantage – Time gap between Current and Last Release > 6 months
  • Average – Time gap between Current and Last Release = 6 months
  • Disadvantage – Time gap between Current and Last Release < 6 months

We believe that an actor can very much maintain his stardom with 2 releases per year, i.e. a release every 6 months. A film’s appeal and buzz diminishes gradually if its lead actor has over exposed himself with frequent releases and vice versa. Akshay Kumar and Ajay Devgn are the two stars who have mostly experienced this wrath in the recent past.

Consider Salman Khan in 2014 as an example. For Jai Ho, this X-Factor would be -7.5% (as his last release was Dabangg-2 which was released more than 6 months back) and for Kick it would be 0 (as Kick released exactly 6 months after Jai Ho).

6. GENRE

GENRE ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of  Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -4%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +4%
  • Advantage – Action, Family Films
  • Average – Comedy, Romance, Comedy-Drama, Romance-Drama
  • Disadvantage – Drama, Social, Sports, Suspense-Drama, Thriller-Drama, Biography

Just like all other X-Factors, the genres shall also keep getting moved from Advantage to Disadvantage as per the industry trends.

We would like to mention here that some films might fall under more than one category and then we’ll have to adjust the Genre X-Factor accordingly. For an instance a Jai Ho or a Gabbar Is Back is an Action Film with a social issue, Corruption, as back drop. So, instead of -4%, we’ll take -2%.

7. BANNER

BANNER ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -4%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +4%
  • Advantage – Yash Raj Films, Dharma Productions, UTV Motion Pictures
  • Average – EROS International, Vishesh Films, Nadiadwala Grandson, Balaji Motion Pictures, Viacom18, Red Chillies Entertainment.
  • Disadvantage – Others

The Banner is responsible for selecting right scripts, designing a good marketing strategy and increasing the production value.

Nowadays, the Distribution Company is as vital as the Makers of the film. In fact, on most of the occasions, Producers make good profits by selling their films at a very early stage and thus the Distribution Company is also involved in all the key decisions. Thus, firstly, Banner will include both the Producers & distributors. Secondly, we’ll consider the better of the two companies. Like for PK (Producer: Vidhu Vinod Chopra & Raju Hirani | Distributor: UTV) and Brothers (Producer: Dharma | Distributor: Fox Star), the X-Factor will be -4% as Top 3 Banners are associated in some way or the other.

8. CO-STAR

CO-STAR ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of  Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -4%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +4%
  • Advantage – Deepika Padukone, Katrina Kaif, Kareena Kapoor, Kangna Ranaut, Priyanka Chopra, Alia Bhatt
  • Average – Shraddha Kapoor, Madhuri Dixit, Aishwarya Rai, Kajol, Anushka Sharma
  • Disadvantage – Others

The Co-Stars can also contribute in bringing audience to the theatres, but contrary to the general perception, the effect is restricted and here’s an explanation to that. Deepika Padukone is arguably the No 1 actress in the industry today. But, on her own goodwill, she got an opening of just around 5 crore for Piku, which also had Amitabh Bachchan and Irfan Khan.

Another point worth mentioning is that here we’ve mainly considered the actresses, but there can be a Multi-Hero project. Like in Brothers, if we take only the actress, Jacqueline Fernandez would have Disadvantage on Akshay Kumar’s opening, but there’s another star in the form of Siddharth Malhotra who will surely contribute in footfalls. If we create a similar table for Actors, Akshay Kumar shall most probably fall in first category (Top 5) and Siddharth Malhotra in second (Rank 6-10). So, the Co-Star X-Factor in Brothers will turn out to be -2% for Akshay Kumar and -4% for Siddharth Malhotra.

9. DIRECTOR

DIRECTOR ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -4%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +4%
  • Advantage – Director with Success Rate > 50%. Example: Raju Hirani, Rohit Shetty
  • Average – Director with Success Rate = 50%. Example: Mohit Suri
  • Disadvantage – Director with Success Rate < 50% or Debutant. Example: Sajid-Farhad

10. TICKET PRICES

DIRECTOR ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -4%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +4%
  • Advantage – High Rates. Example: Singham Returns
  • Average – Normal Rates. Example: Action Jackson

Though, generally ticket prices are more or less similar to Release Date factor because Holiday/ Festival releases tend to have higher prices than normal ones. However, there might be special occurrences when festival/ holiday doesn’t falls on first day, still the rates are high. Kick (Eid Holiday on 2nd Day) and Brothers (Independence Day on 2nd Day), for an instance, fall in this category. This is the reason we’ve taken a separate parameter for ticket rates as well.

This is the theory and we’ve lots of practical stuff in store. We would soon come back with the actual Star Power Rankings of top stars. Till then keep surfing. This formula will be tweaked depending on the industry trends.

We hope that you will like our concept. Please share your feedback / suggestions in the comments section.

By Archit Mishra (Tweets @architmishra_06)

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132 Comments

  • Last 5 release films Analysis of Hindi Cinema Stars ;
    .
    .
    With just one release in one of E.D.X (Eid.Deepawali.Xmas) holidays, Hrithikis giving tough competition to Khans
    .
    .
    Khans are little up just because of 4 out of their last 5 films are released on most safe date E.D.X
    .
    if Hrithik would have at least 3 out of his last 5 films would released on most safe E.D.X then he would definitely top of Khans means he would be in no.1 position
    .
    .
    if we not count E.D.X holidays releases, then Khans are nothing in front of Hrithik
    .
    even Akshay and Ranbir are far ahead of Khans and Khans has complete zero star power without E.D.X
    .
    in anther words we can say
    .
    Hrithik is already no.1 superstar of our Hindi Cinema and far far ahead of Khans and most powerful superstar of our country
    .
    HRITHIK ALWAYS MADE US PROUD BECAUSE HE DONE IMPOSSIBLES IN UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS !
    .
    THANK YOU HRITHIK FOR YOUR IMPOSSIBLES WORKS !

  • great great work indicine… ausm,..
    for me simple way of stardom is u take tht name on street people says he is ausm…
    he cm in tv commercial we talk abt him…
    his tv apprarances generate high trp…
    n general sense his name is synonim to superstadom…
    i think today its SALMAN KHAN.. ONLY…

  • So Vidya Balan , Fox Star were disasdvantage for HAK. Mohir suri, music worked as average parameter . And Vishesh films, Ticket price, Screen count were disadvantages for HAK along with its regressive genre. And also it clashed with Jurassic Park which did 100cr.

    On other hand, genre of Tevar, its Solo release date , Masala factor, Screen count, EROS factor worked as disadvantage and Sonakshi worked as average factor.

    So by subtracting advantages of Tevar, its opening becomes 3.4cr.

    And adding disadvantages of HAK and subtracting its advantages , HAK opening becomes approx 7.9cr.

    So HAK > Tevar.
    Similarly MrX > > Finding Fanny,tevar.

    Emraan Hashmi > Arjun Kapoor , shahid Kapoor > Arjun Kapoor
    shahid kapoor Saif > Shahid Kapoor > Arjun kapoor.

    @indicine i wish to see this change. Thank You.

  • So Vidya Balan , Fox Star were disasdvantage for HAK. Mohir suri, music worked as average parameter . And Vishesh films, Ticket price, Screen count were disadvantages for HAK along with its regressive genre. And also it clashed with Jurassic Park which did 100cr.

    On other hand, genre of Tevar, its Solo release date , Masala factor, Screen count, EROS factor worked as disadvantage and Sonakshi worked as average factor.

    So by subtracting advantages of Tevar, its opening becomes 3.4cr.

    And adding disadvantages of HAK and subtracting its advantages , HAK opening becomes approx 7.9cr.

    So HAK > Tevar.
    Similarly MrX > > Finding Fanny,tevar.

    Emraan Hashmi > Arjun Kapoor , shahid Kapoor > Arjun Kapoor
    shahid kapoor Saif > Shahid Kapoor > Arjun kapoor.

    @indicine i wish to see this change. Thank You…

  • I mean to say finally justice woll be done to emraan hashmi.

    Emraan hashmi’s hak races ahead of Shahid’s Haider, arjun kapoor’s tevar and saif’s phantom.
    Wish to see this changes..

  • it clearly shows,
    #PRDP has a chance to become the biggest holiday earner,bcoz it is release on best festival release date of the year i.e post diwali
    + Advantage of Action, Family Film + Sooraj ji-Salman bhai Combo after 15 yrs + Salman bhai’s Megastardom at its Peak now + Salman bhai’s last release #BB is went on to be a historic ATBB..
    means all over Benefits..no one can stop #PRDP to open huge

    waiting for #PRDP

  • Actors like emraan hashmi will be benefitted by this model.. I feel.. He does film with new actress and low PR banners.. Also screen count, promotion factor is less.. Along with genre is not appealing to universal audience like Hak.. Still it did 40cr..

    An emraan hashmi film like Ghanchakkar with flop songs and niche appeal or film with Humaima malik like Raja natwarlal releases on 1600 screens n does 7.4cr opening … And an arjun kapoor or Ranveer singh releases films with Sonakshi parineeti on double screen count does also 6cr n 7cr like Tevar and kill dill…
    I was waaitin for such article..

  • U know what happened when ranbir did a Fox star film .. It bombed badly n become all time disaster..
    So banner play huge role.. Emraan hashmi films with Fox did better bizness than Ranbir’s film with Fox applying same -ve wom formula… Inspite of having KJo,anushka at helm.

  • So inorder to prove ur starpower u hav to come up with a bad trailer,music,heroine and director That’s jai ho also
    no adv like festival,gud co-stars,increased tickt rates and no manipulation

  • Dnt forgt… jai ho republic day holiday on sunday anther adv canceld out

    also dnt forgt that BB was nt a solo eid release there was bahubali.. its hindi version did more than 100crs

  • Best way to measure stardom is to see an actor’s openings over a number of films and films of different genres. Some actors can only give hits or good openings with mass friendly films.

  • @INDICINE; once again superb article!!! But 1 thing dnt You think to judge a trailer good/avg Actor’s star power is main factor?? So to include Trailer into X-Factors category is little bit controversial i think!! Ex: if there was Sid or Arjun would be there in Kick/Bang Bang….with same trailer….The opening would not be same!! Isn’t it??i just want to say that for good trailer…deduct something from Opening Collection is little bit unfair to film like Kick/Bang Bang!!! if that would be the case then Brothers would open with 20cr min surely!!

  • Indicine
    Sorry to tell u , but i don’t believe dat dere can be a formula to calculate stardom

    Karan openly says dat he owes his career to srk
    Ajay is d reaaon behind rohit’s
    supersuccess

    In short bollywood industry is all about stars. I mean actors

    The fact dat Red chillies entertainment is now one of the bigest production house of country proves dat what superstar wants he wil get it

    Also when huge international celebrities
    Lyk hugh jackman admire u and dey don’t know name of your fellow contemporaries
    Shows ur stardom

  • Based on your formula i calculated the first day collection of last movies of 3 khans:-
    HNY-24.51crs
    BB-21.52 crs
    PK- 18.51 crs.
    So in terms of star power
    1.SRK
    2.SK
    3.AK

  • So, after doing the calculations for the last 5 films of actors according to above data, this is the list:
    1. Aamir
    2. Salman
    3. SRK
    4. Hrithik
    5. Akshay
    6. Ajay
    7. Ranbir
    8. Ranvir
    9. Varun
    10.

  • i really do appreciate ur effort but in my opinion its really no maths to calculate stardom.. u can just feel the craze, xcitement n hysteria.. this is wat true stardom is.. that for me is salman n shahrukh.. yes m a salman fan n m not a fan of shahrukh but m no fool to not acknowledge his superstardom.. aamir on the other hand may not have superstardom but he commands respect.. irrespective of whoever’s fans they are, people come n watch aamir’s movie, such is the respect for him n his movies.. that respect in a way is his superstardom.. now coming to akshay n ajay, they have done very well for themselves but never ever have they come even close to what salman n shahrukh are in terms of sheer superstardom or the kind of respect aamir commands.. hrithik too is very huge but somehow i feel he has not done justice to his true potential n his stardom.. he has the potential to go even further.. ranbir on the other hand is seeing the ups n downs of becoming a superstar.. whether he becomes one only time will tell..

  • Yeas well said.HNY suffered huge due to Farah Khan otherwise IT would be the 1ST 300CR FILM OF BOLLYWOOD.

    KING KHAN obviously the BIGGEST MEGASTAR of the country with out any doubt.but I have to disagree with holiday advantage of HMY why because gmday after DEEWALI is not a NATIONAL HOLIDAY.and I’m challenging if prem ratan dildos payo will release on the same date than it’ll struggle to surpass 35CR.whatever HNY pulled THE CROWD only dilie to MEGASTAR KING OF BOLLYWOOD SRK.KING KHAN RULES BOLLYWOOD.

  • I agree with this articles indicine.com except one thing
    .
    .
    In Release Date ;

    you include Republic day, Independence day & Gandhi Jayanti in Excellent Advantage category which is completely wrong place for these three !
    .
    .
    All three are not as extraordinary dates as EDX ( EidDipawaliXmas ) holidays
    .
    because
    .
    All EDX holidays contain more than holidays as compared to rest three holiday ;

    Eid → Eid & Basi Eid → two holidays

    Dipawali→ Post Dipawali & Bhaiya Dooj→ two holidays

    Xmas→ Xmas, Ending Year, New Year, Schools-Colleges-some people are in long holiday from their National/ Bigness Works→four Holidays
    .
    .
    But

    Republic day, Independence day & Gandhi jayanti contain just one day itself
    .
    .
    EDX holidays are more excellent not just for more holidays , because All Families come together in EDX holidays & they pass their holidays watching movies even after EDX holidays end.
    .
    Whereas Republic day, Independence day & Gandhi jayanti are one time holiday ( but not excellent than EDX ) and Before-After this holiday total normal days unlike EDX where Families are still in holidays After holidays
    .
    .
    For me list should be like ;

    Excellent Advantage→EDX holidays
    .
    Good Advantage→ Republic day, Independence day, Gandhi Jayanti, V-day, good Friday etc
    .
    Average Advantage→ Normal days
    .
    Disadvantage→ Pre-Holidays periods & Matches etc
    .
    Major Disadvantage→ Clashes
    .
    .
    EDX are more excellent than Republic day, Independence day & Gandhi Jayanti

  • KING KHAN IS THE BIGGEST CROWD PULLER MEGASTAR OF INDIA AND WW

    HNY—-44.95 CR
    CE—-33.12 CR
    RA ONE—-18.38 CR
    DON 2—-15.27 CR(23 DECEMBER)
    JTHJ—-15.23CR

    THIS THE REAL SIGN OF A MEGASTAR.THE GIANT STAR OF THE NATION.

    DILWALE OPENING(WITH CLASH)—-40CR
    DILWALE OPENING (WITH OUT CLASH)—-60CR

    WHEN MEGASTAR RELEASES A FILM ,THAT’LL AUTOMATICALLY TURNS INTO A CEBRATIKN FESTIVAL FOR PEOPLES.HE IS THE PEOPLE’S MAN,THE ONE AND ONLY SELF MADE GLOBAL MEGASTAR NOT ONLY OF INDIA BUT ALSO OF THE EARTH.

    BADSHAH KHAN RULES BOLLYWOOD.

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