STAR POWER PART 2 – Computing SUPER STARDOM

9 years ago
132 Comments
by Indicine Team
9 min read

If you haven’t read PART 1 of this article, click here

In continuation to our first article in this series, here’s the next write up which will guide us in calculating the X-Factors and Star-Power. The prime consideration which we’ve made is to be as transparent as possible so that there’s practically nothing hidden from our readers. The exceptional response from our readers in the first article helped us a lot in improving our system.

The first thing which we need to understand is that the 10 X-Factors don’t have equal impact on the boxoffice. So, we need to identify what is the measure of impact of all these X-Factors.

X-FACTOR List with corresponding Impact

  • Release Date [+/- 25%]
  • Franchise [0 to +25%]
  • Response to Theatrical Trailer [+/- 15%]
  • Music [+/- 7.5%]
  • Gap between Releases [+/- 7.5%]
  • Genre [+/- 4%]
  • Banner [+/- 4%]
  • Co-Star [+/- 4%]
  • Director [+/- 4%]
  • Ticket Prices [+/- 4%]

TOTAL IMPACT RANGE OF X-FACTORS      : -75% to +100%       

As explained in the first article, wherever an actor has an advantage, the X-Factor shall become negative and vice versa. Once you have X-Factor Figure, just subtract it from Opening collections and you will get the Star Power.

The +100% and -75% effects are hypothetical scenarios and 99% of the times the impact shall be in between these two yard-stick parameters.

Now that we’ve the impact measures, let’s do a case study of all the X-Factors and analyze Advantages/ Disadvantages in each category.

NOTE: The impact of X-Factors and the Advantages/ Disadvantages in each X-Factor category is bound to change time and again depending upon industry standards.

X-FACTOR COMPUTATION

1. RELEASE DATE

RELEASE DATE ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)
EXCELLENT ADVANTAGE -25%
GOOD ADVANTAGE -12.5%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +12.5%
MAJOR DISADVANTAGE +25%

It’s an established fact that Release Date has become the key to grand openings and irrespective of all other prospects, business is almost sure to get escalated for any film on holidays. This is the reason why there is competition nowadays to block the perfect release date as soon as the project is announced. Please find below various categories of release dates.

  • Excellent – Advantage – NATIONAL HOLIDAY
    Diwali, Eid, Christmas, Independence-Day, Republic-Day, Gandhi Jayanti
    Ex: Happy New Year
  • Good Advantage – FAVOURABLE PERIOD/ PARTIAL HOLIDAY
    Post IPL Weekend, Valentine’s Day, Good Friday, May Day, etc.
    Ex: Holiday – A Soldier Is Never Off Duty
  • Average – NORMAL RELEASE
    [Any normal Friday]
    Ex: PK
  • Disadvantage – UNFAVORABLE PERIOD
    Pre-Eid, Diwali Puja, Crucial Cricket Match etc.
    Ex: Kick
  • Major Disadvantage – CLASH
    A clash resulting in division of considerable number of screens
    Ex: Gadar and Lagaan

Another interesting point which is worth mentioning is that sometimes an X-Factor can neutralize on its own. For Example, Bang Bang was released on Gandhi Jayanti 2014, so its Release Date total should be -25%, but it also faced a clash with Haider (imposing a +25%). So for Bang Bang we will take Release Date X-Factor as zero, i.e. normal.

2. FRANCHISE

FRANCHISE ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of  Opening Day Collections)
EXCELLENT ADVANTAGE -25%
GOOD ADVANTAGE -12.5%
AVERAGE 0

Hit Franchises have tremendous recall value amongst the audience. The factors which contribute in escalation of appeal/ buzz of a brand can be attributed as:

1. Goodwill from Theatrical Word of Mouth
2. Success on Television (Satellite TRPs)

Based upon these factors, we’ve divided popular franchises into two groups as depicted below. Below groupings have few examples for comparison and franchises shall be added/ removed to this as we move further.

  • Excellent Advantage:
    Dhoom, Munnabhai, Krrish, Welcome, Dabangg, Hera Pheri
  • Good Advantage:
    Singham, Golmaal, Housefull, Don, Tanu Weds Manu, Masti, etc.
  • Average:
    Any Normal Release that doesn’t belongs to any franchise.

3. RESPONSE TO THEATRICAL TRAILER

RESPONSE TO TRAILER ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of  Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -15%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +15%

We received many comments in our first article highlighting two important points – ‘Content’ and ‘Perception amongst audience’. Well, normal movie-goers judge any film’s content and form their perception only on the basis of that film’s first theatrical trailer. It’s something like judging a book from its cover.

  • Advantage – VERY GOOD TRAILER
    Ex: Bang-Bang, Kick
  • Average – MEDIOCRE TRAILER
    Ex: Happy New Year, Jai Ho
  • Disadvantage – POOR TRAILER
    Ex: It’s Entertainment

4. MUSIC

RESPONSE TO MUSIC ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of  Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -7.5%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +7.5%

“Get few chartbusters in your film and a good opening is very much on.” Strength of good music converting into footfalls is not hidden from anybody. We’ve 3 categories under this factor as well.

  • Advantage – CHARTBUSTER MUSIC
    Ex: Happy New Year [Lovely Song]
  • Average – MEDIOCRE ALBUM
    Ex: PK
  • Disadvantage – POOR
    Ex: Action Jackson

5. TIME GAP SINCE LAST RELEASE

TIME GAP ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -7.5%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +7.5%
  • Advantage – Time gap between Current and Last Release > 6 months
  • Average – Time gap between Current and Last Release = 6 months
  • Disadvantage – Time gap between Current and Last Release < 6 months

We believe that an actor can very much maintain his stardom with 2 releases per year, i.e. a release every 6 months. A film’s appeal and buzz diminishes gradually if its lead actor has over exposed himself with frequent releases and vice versa. Akshay Kumar and Ajay Devgn are the two stars who have mostly experienced this wrath in the recent past.

Consider Salman Khan in 2014 as an example. For Jai Ho, this X-Factor would be -7.5% (as his last release was Dabangg-2 which was released more than 6 months back) and for Kick it would be 0 (as Kick released exactly 6 months after Jai Ho).

6. GENRE

GENRE ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of  Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -4%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +4%
  • Advantage - Action, Family Films
  • Average - Comedy, Romance, Comedy-Drama, Romance-Drama
  • Disadvantage - Drama, Social, Sports, Suspense-Drama, Thriller-Drama, Biography

Just like all other X-Factors, the genres shall also keep getting moved from Advantage to Disadvantage as per the industry trends.

We would like to mention here that some films might fall under more than one category and then we’ll have to adjust the Genre X-Factor accordingly. For an instance a Jai Ho or a Gabbar Is Back is an Action Film with a social issue, Corruption, as back drop. So, instead of -4%, we’ll take -2%.

7. BANNER

BANNER ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -4%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +4%
  • Advantage - Yash Raj Films, Dharma Productions, UTV Motion Pictures
  • Average - EROS International, Vishesh Films, Nadiadwala Grandson, Balaji Motion Pictures, Viacom18, Red Chillies Entertainment.
  • Disadvantage - Others

The Banner is responsible for selecting right scripts, designing a good marketing strategy and increasing the production value.

Nowadays, the Distribution Company is as vital as the Makers of the film. In fact, on most of the occasions, Producers make good profits by selling their films at a very early stage and thus the Distribution Company is also involved in all the key decisions. Thus, firstly, Banner will include both the Producers & distributors. Secondly, we’ll consider the better of the two companies. Like for PK (Producer: Vidhu Vinod Chopra & Raju Hirani | Distributor: UTV) and Brothers (Producer: Dharma | Distributor: Fox Star), the X-Factor will be -4% as Top 3 Banners are associated in some way or the other.

8. CO-STAR

CO-STAR ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of  Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -4%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +4%
  • Advantage - Deepika Padukone, Katrina Kaif, Kareena Kapoor, Kangna Ranaut, Priyanka Chopra, Alia Bhatt
  • Average - Shraddha Kapoor, Madhuri Dixit, Aishwarya Rai, Kajol, Anushka Sharma
  • Disadvantage - Others

The Co-Stars can also contribute in bringing audience to the theatres, but contrary to the general perception, the effect is restricted and here’s an explanation to that. Deepika Padukone is arguably the No 1 actress in the industry today. But, on her own goodwill, she got an opening of just around 5 crore for Piku, which also had Amitabh Bachchan and Irfan Khan.

Another point worth mentioning is that here we’ve mainly considered the actresses, but there can be a Multi-Hero project. Like in Brothers, if we take only the actress, Jacqueline Fernandez would have Disadvantage on Akshay Kumar’s opening, but there’s another star in the form of Siddharth Malhotra who will surely contribute in footfalls. If we create a similar table for Actors, Akshay Kumar shall most probably fall in first category (Top 5) and Siddharth Malhotra in second (Rank 6-10). So, the Co-Star X-Factor in Brothers will turn out to be -2% for Akshay Kumar and -4% for Siddharth Malhotra.

9. DIRECTOR

DIRECTOR ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -4%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +4%
  • Advantage - Director with Success Rate > 50%. Example: Raju Hirani, Rohit Shetty
  • Average - Director with Success Rate = 50%. Example: Mohit Suri
  • Disadvantage - Director with Success Rate < 50% or Debutant. Example: Sajid-Farhad

10. TICKET PRICES

DIRECTOR ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)
ADVANTAGE -4%
AVERAGE 0
DISADVANTAGE +4%
  • Advantage - High Rates. Example: Singham Returns
  • Average - Normal Rates. Example: Action Jackson

Though, generally ticket prices are more or less similar to Release Date factor because Holiday/ Festival releases tend to have higher prices than normal ones. However, there might be special occurrences when festival/ holiday doesn’t falls on first day, still the rates are high. Kick (Eid Holiday on 2nd Day) and Brothers (Independence Day on 2nd Day), for an instance, fall in this category. This is the reason we’ve taken a separate parameter for ticket rates as well.

This is the theory and we’ve lots of practical stuff in store. We would soon come back with the actual Star Power Rankings of top stars. Till then keep surfing. This formula will be tweaked depending on the industry trends.

We hope that you will like our concept. Please share your feedback / suggestions in the comments section.

By Archit Mishra (Tweets @architmishra_06)

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132 Comments

  • Excellent article. No method is perfect but the logic is sound. It is only when the results are published can we evaluate it better. And I think, Shah Rukh Khan and Salman Khan will come out as the top stars.
    Indicine, please do 2 calculatons – based on weekend collections also along with first day.
    And please use trade figures. Else manipulated and inflated collections will render the results meaningless. E.g. If you use producer figures of Krrish 3 and Bang Bang instead of trade figures, Hrithik Roshan will gain an unfair advantage by cheating.

    Reply

  • wow..very well written
    good work archit..havnt read a more detailed explanation of an article from quite some time.
    keep it up..waiting foh the final article..i.e. the rankings

    Reply

  • The X factor of co-star and banner should not be termed as x-factor in real terms..when deepika padukone comes with Shahrukh Khan and Ranbir kapoor she is a part of record openings and huge blockbusters,on the other hand when she comes with Arjun Kapoor and Irfan Khan she struggles for a hit…I personally believe that heriones are an important part of a film but they do not contribute anything in terms of opening..Katrina kaif with huge superstars like Salman,Aamir,Shahrukh and Hrithik gets to be a part of huge money spinners but when she is paired with saif Ali Khan then the weekend collections of that film are in the range of opening day of Dhoom 3 and ek tha tiger..
    Coming to the banner we all know what overrated big banners are doing without superstars..Yash Raj films are struggling for a hit with newcomers and when the have superstars they churns out blockbusters..we can clearly see that their upcoming films have Shahrukh Khan,salman Khan and rumoured Hrithik Roshan film..they are falling back to the superstars who are responsible for their major part of success..and we all know how many flops and disasters Dharma productions utv eros and so on have without big superstars.. So I think that heriones and banners should be taken as 0 only because they deliver huge only when they get a superstar which is huge.
    I also feel that genre should be given as an excuse for poor collections..it is a superstars responsibility to bring in the audience to theatres..when he has signed a particular project he has to make sure that his film reaches to a wider segment of audience..Talaash did not have universally appealing genre but it managed excellent opening just because of Aamir Khan..so this is called star power

    Reply

  • which one have power those only release his film on diwali eid xmas
    small actor have no power thats why his movie not release on these holiday period

    when they try to relese his movie in diwali xmas eid ther not solo release clash will happen

    resent exaple bajirao mastani and tamasha first they release in xmas tamasha sift and mastani face dilwale

    Reply

  • From the above without any sentiments and following this formula we have.
    1. ??????
    2, ??????
    3. ???? ????
    4. ?????
    5. ????
    6. ??????
    7. ??????
    8. ?????
    9. ???????
    10. ????

    Based on indicine index parameters induced.

    Reply

  • Nice analysis and very good points made.

    Salman
    Hritik
    Aamir
    Shah Rukh
    Ajay
    Ranbir
    Akshay.
    Rest are not superstars so they should just chill.

    Reply

  • Only two objections :

    1. Why are you giving less importance to directors ? You should make at least 10% adjustment in opening day collections in case of ‘directors’. For example, I saw many non-Aamir fans going to watch PK, just because it’s a Hirani film .

    2. Only three categories for ‘gap between releases’. For example, Salman came with Kick 6 months after Jai Ho, Aamir came with Talaash 22 months after Dhobi Ghat . But you are putting both of them in the same category . Aamir got a bigger advantage in this case, I guess .

    Rest of the article is great !

    Reply

  • Agree on most of it
    Regardless of few

    Don’t agree with music contribution to just 7.5%
    Action film not advantageous ,action drama is

    Directors adcantage can not be upto 4%
    Differs from director to director
    As if anand l rai success rate fairly good can’t be as good as raju hirani in terms of drawing audience by his name

    Reply

  • Bingo thanks @indicine
    Based on that the model should represent our heroes like this order
    1. Salman
    2. Aamir
    3. Hritik
    4. Ajay
    5. Srk
    6. Akshay
    7. Ranbir
    8. Varun
    9. Saif
    10. Ranveer
    Good luck all are wonderful actors

    Reply

  • Interesting. Probably the only best way to figure out stardom using a logical method. I am sure many Salman and Aamir fans will not like this method too much.

    Reply

  • Agree but not totally

    Music advantage should be more
    Upto 10-15%

    Action film is not advantageous as it lacks universal appeal especially to girls

    Director credit should has other measures as it can not be concluded on this way only

    As Anand l rai who have fairly good record ,but at the same time can not draw the audience to theater by his name like raju hirani
    So it can be vary director to director.

    Reply

  • I must say Shah Rukh and Ranbir have been having lots of advantages to their names be it banners co stars director tickets holiday bla bla.

    Srk and Ranbir bottom 2 meaning either 6 or 7.

    Hard to choose top 2 it’s reserved for Salman and Aamir meaning either 1st or 2nd.

    Hritik is safe in his position no doubts 3rd.

    Another though call is between Akshay and Ajay?? Definitely both are above Srk and Ranbir meaning Akshay and Ajay should be 4th or 5th.

    Thus,
    1. Aamir/Salman
    2. Salman/Aamir
    3. Hritik
    4. Akshay/Ajay
    5. Ajay/Akshay
    6. Srk/ranbir
    7. Ranbir/srk most likely srk on number 6.

    At the end of the day I think ajay and akshay deserves some extra kudos for doing many movies without really having much advantages in their favour. While aamir and Salman are up there where they deserve to be .

    Reply

  • I am have a different opinion on this subject, but the amount of effort put in here is truly commendable!

    Thanks to your out-of-box thinking and innovative articles, Indicine has/might soon surpass all the other trade sites of Bollywood!

    Well Done!

    Reply

  • So it’s been around 2 years and one month, exactly when I left my favorite Bollywood site “Indicine” temporarily due to some personal assignment.
    But never expected that “Temporary span” will be extended to such a long period of time. But “Turning up late” is always better than “Turning up never”. So yeah, I am back !!!

    A die-hard SRK fan and the biggest critic of a criminal-turned-actor (yeah, I don’t have any issue or hesitation to admit that).
    @Indicine : Seriously, missed your website a lot !!! Specially, your comment section.
    Not sure if my fav SRK fans – Hamza Khan, King, Soroop, @BeingSalluFan and many more are still visiting this website or not. Similarly, I am unsure about my fav Sallu fans – Chulbul Pandey and Amir fan Niks.
    I was going through comment section of recent articles and didn’t see any trace of them.
    Anyway, its going to be too much fun now on and I believe some of my “Easy targets” (who used to get bashing from me like hell) will start getting goosebumps after reading this comment, for sure :D

    Reply

  • Meanwhile, its very sad to see that the “Lonely Aunt” Naveena is still visiting Indicine. I was going through some previous articles and I was surprised to see that she has not changed a bit. She was same as what I left her two years back. Same Typical rant about other actors, same repetitive dialogues, same foolish assumptions.
    I am not sure if people currently visiting this site know or not, but she is a certified retard. Even Indicine had honored her with a “Certificate of retardness”.

    Reply

  • @Indicine : Sorry for posting something not related to the article. But since this was my comeback article, wanted to make a comment related to that. From next article onwards, I will stick to the topic. Please be kind enough to publish above two comments. Thanks :)

    Reply
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