If you haven’t read PART 1 of this article, click here
In continuation to our first article in this series, here’s the next write up which will guide us in calculating the X-Factors and Star-Power. The prime consideration which we’ve made is to be as transparent as possible so that there’s practically nothing hidden from our readers. The exceptional response from our readers in the first article helped us a lot in improving our system.
The first thing which we need to understand is that the 10 X-Factors don’t have equal impact on the boxoffice. So, we need to identify what is the measure of impact of all these X-Factors.
X-FACTOR List with corresponding Impact
- Release Date [+/- 25%]
- Franchise [0 to +25%]
- Response to Theatrical Trailer [+/- 15%]
- Music [+/- 7.5%]
- Gap between Releases [+/- 7.5%]
- Genre [+/- 4%]
- Banner [+/- 4%]
- Co-Star [+/- 4%]
- Director [+/- 4%]
- Ticket Prices [+/- 4%]
TOTAL IMPACT RANGE OF X-FACTORS : -75% to +100%
As explained in the first article, wherever an actor has an advantage, the X-Factor shall become negative and vice versa. Once you have X-Factor Figure, just subtract it from Opening collections and you will get the Star Power.
The +100% and -75% effects are hypothetical scenarios and 99% of the times the impact shall be in between these two yard-stick parameters.
Now that we’ve the impact measures, let’s do a case study of all the X-Factors and analyze Advantages/ Disadvantages in each category.
NOTE: The impact of X-Factors and the Advantages/ Disadvantages in each X-Factor category is bound to change time and again depending upon industry standards.
1. RELEASE DATE
|RELEASE DATE||ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)|
It’s an established fact that Release Date has become the key to grand openings and irrespective of all other prospects, business is almost sure to get escalated for any film on holidays. This is the reason why there is competition nowadays to block the perfect release date as soon as the project is announced. Please find below various categories of release dates.
- Excellent – Advantage – NATIONAL HOLIDAY
Diwali, Eid, Christmas, Independence-Day, Republic-Day, Gandhi Jayanti
Ex: Happy New Year
- Good Advantage – FAVOURABLE PERIOD/ PARTIAL HOLIDAY
Post IPL Weekend, Valentine’s Day, Good Friday, May Day, etc.
Ex: Holiday – A Soldier Is Never Off Duty
- Average – NORMAL RELEASE
[Any normal Friday] Ex: PK
- Disadvantage – UNFAVORABLE PERIOD
Pre-Eid, Diwali Puja, Crucial Cricket Match etc.
- Major Disadvantage – CLASH
A clash resulting in division of considerable number of screens
Ex: Gadar and Lagaan
Another interesting point which is worth mentioning is that sometimes an X-Factor can neutralize on its own. For Example, Bang Bang was released on Gandhi Jayanti 2014, so its Release Date total should be -25%, but it also faced a clash with Haider (imposing a +25%). So for Bang Bang we will take Release Date X-Factor as zero, i.e. normal.
|FRANCHISE||ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)|
Hit Franchises have tremendous recall value amongst the audience. The factors which contribute in escalation of appeal/ buzz of a brand can be attributed as:
1. Goodwill from Theatrical Word of Mouth
2. Success on Television (Satellite TRPs)
Based upon these factors, we’ve divided popular franchises into two groups as depicted below. Below groupings have few examples for comparison and franchises shall be added/ removed to this as we move further.
- Excellent Advantage:
Dhoom, Munnabhai, Krrish, Welcome, Dabangg, Hera Pheri
- Good Advantage:
Singham, Golmaal, Housefull, Don, Tanu Weds Manu, Masti, etc.
Any Normal Release that doesn’t belongs to any franchise.
3. RESPONSE TO THEATRICAL TRAILER
|RESPONSE TO TRAILER||ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)|
We received many comments in our first article highlighting two important points – ‘Content’ and ‘Perception amongst audience’. Well, normal movie-goers judge any film’s content and form their perception only on the basis of that film’s first theatrical trailer. It’s something like judging a book from its cover.
- Advantage – VERY GOOD TRAILER
Ex: Bang-Bang, Kick
- Average – MEDIOCRE TRAILER
Ex: Happy New Year, Jai Ho
- Disadvantage – POOR TRAILER
Ex: It’s Entertainment
|RESPONSE TO MUSIC||ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)|
“Get few chartbusters in your film and a good opening is very much on.” Strength of good music converting into footfalls is not hidden from anybody. We’ve 3 categories under this factor as well.
- Advantage – CHARTBUSTER MUSIC
Ex: Happy New Year [Lovely Song]
- Average – MEDIOCRE ALBUM
- Disadvantage – POOR
Ex: Action Jackson
5. TIME GAP SINCE LAST RELEASE
|TIME GAP||ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)|
- Advantage – Time gap between Current and Last Release > 6 months
- Average – Time gap between Current and Last Release = 6 months
- Disadvantage – Time gap between Current and Last Release < 6 months
We believe that an actor can very much maintain his stardom with 2 releases per year, i.e. a release every 6 months. A film’s appeal and buzz diminishes gradually if its lead actor has over exposed himself with frequent releases and vice versa. Akshay Kumar and Ajay Devgn are the two stars who have mostly experienced this wrath in the recent past.
Consider Salman Khan in 2014 as an example. For Jai Ho, this X-Factor would be -7.5% (as his last release was Dabangg-2 which was released more than 6 months back) and for Kick it would be 0 (as Kick released exactly 6 months after Jai Ho).
|GENRE||ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)|
- Advantage – Action, Family Films
- Average – Comedy, Romance, Comedy-Drama, Romance-Drama
- Disadvantage – Drama, Social, Sports, Suspense-Drama, Thriller-Drama, Biography
Just like all other X-Factors, the genres shall also keep getting moved from Advantage to Disadvantage as per the industry trends.
We would like to mention here that some films might fall under more than one category and then we’ll have to adjust the Genre X-Factor accordingly. For an instance a Jai Ho or a Gabbar Is Back is an Action Film with a social issue, Corruption, as back drop. So, instead of -4%, we’ll take -2%.
|BANNER||ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)|
- Advantage – Yash Raj Films, Dharma Productions, UTV Motion Pictures
- Average – EROS International, Vishesh Films, Nadiadwala Grandson, Balaji Motion Pictures, Viacom18, Red Chillies Entertainment.
- Disadvantage – Others
The Banner is responsible for selecting right scripts, designing a good marketing strategy and increasing the production value.
Nowadays, the Distribution Company is as vital as the Makers of the film. In fact, on most of the occasions, Producers make good profits by selling their films at a very early stage and thus the Distribution Company is also involved in all the key decisions. Thus, firstly, Banner will include both the Producers & distributors. Secondly, we’ll consider the better of the two companies. Like for PK (Producer: Vidhu Vinod Chopra & Raju Hirani | Distributor: UTV) and Brothers (Producer: Dharma | Distributor: Fox Star), the X-Factor will be -4% as Top 3 Banners are associated in some way or the other.
|CO-STAR||ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)|
- Advantage – Deepika Padukone, Katrina Kaif, Kareena Kapoor, Kangna Ranaut, Priyanka Chopra, Alia Bhatt
- Average – Shraddha Kapoor, Madhuri Dixit, Aishwarya Rai, Kajol, Anushka Sharma
- Disadvantage – Others
The Co-Stars can also contribute in bringing audience to the theatres, but contrary to the general perception, the effect is restricted and here’s an explanation to that. Deepika Padukone is arguably the No 1 actress in the industry today. But, on her own goodwill, she got an opening of just around 5 crore for Piku, which also had Amitabh Bachchan and Irfan Khan.
Another point worth mentioning is that here we’ve mainly considered the actresses, but there can be a Multi-Hero project. Like in Brothers, if we take only the actress, Jacqueline Fernandez would have Disadvantage on Akshay Kumar’s opening, but there’s another star in the form of Siddharth Malhotra who will surely contribute in footfalls. If we create a similar table for Actors, Akshay Kumar shall most probably fall in first category (Top 5) and Siddharth Malhotra in second (Rank 6-10). So, the Co-Star X-Factor in Brothers will turn out to be -2% for Akshay Kumar and -4% for Siddharth Malhotra.
|DIRECTOR||ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)|
- Advantage – Director with Success Rate > 50%. Example: Raju Hirani, Rohit Shetty
- Average – Director with Success Rate = 50%. Example: Mohit Suri
- Disadvantage – Director with Success Rate < 50% or Debutant. Example: Sajid-Farhad
10. TICKET PRICES
|DIRECTOR||ADJUSTMENT IN OPENING (Percentage of Opening Day Collections)|
- Advantage – High Rates. Example: Singham Returns
- Average – Normal Rates. Example: Action Jackson
Though, generally ticket prices are more or less similar to Release Date factor because Holiday/ Festival releases tend to have higher prices than normal ones. However, there might be special occurrences when festival/ holiday doesn’t falls on first day, still the rates are high. Kick (Eid Holiday on 2nd Day) and Brothers (Independence Day on 2nd Day), for an instance, fall in this category. This is the reason we’ve taken a separate parameter for ticket rates as well.
This is the theory and we’ve lots of practical stuff in store. We would soon come back with the actual Star Power Rankings of top stars. Till then keep surfing. This formula will be tweaked depending on the industry trends.
We hope that you will like our concept. Please share your feedback / suggestions in the comments section.
By Archit Mishra (Tweets @architmishra_06)
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