There were two films releases last weekend. One film had arguably the biggest star cast of 2015 in a genre that was expected to hold universal appeal. The other was expected to take a slow start and perform well in a couple of states if the word-of-mouth was nothing less than excellent.
Not a single trade analyst gave Bajirao Mastani a chance. Even in the worst case scenario, Dilwale was expected to lead. After all, the audience tend to like entertainers. Like we mentioned in one of our articles, Dilwale had a team that never failed (read). The director has given several blockbusters, the lead star is arguably the biggest the industry has ever produced and his pairing with Kajol is evergreen. The younger star, Varun Dhawan, had taken giant strides in the last couple of years.
But the box office game is unpredictable and a great leveller. Every star, big or small, has to go through this test every time his / her film releases. For someone like Shah Rukh Khan – who we firmly believe is beyond box office numbers, for the simple reason that he has achieved everything (and more) in the industry – it is still a test. He is the face of films like Dilwale and the responsibility of ensuring that the investors of his films recover their investment and earn profits, is on his shoulders.
The responsibility further increased with a film like ‘Dilwale’ because his company turned distributors and is now adopting a semi-studio model by both producing and distributing their films. Territories were also sold for exorbitant prices because the film was expected to collect no less than Rs 200 crore and recovery for individual distributors might prove to be tough if the film doesn’t sustain in the long run.
On the other hand, we have a film that was written off by everyone in trade, including us. It’s that very film that could eventually win the battle and topple the all mighty against all odds.
We are going with a very bold prediction for both Bajirao Mastani and Dilwale. We expect the Shah Rukh Khan starrer to finish below the 150 crore mark at the domestic box office and Sanjay Leela Bhansali’s Bajirao Mastani to cross the 165 crore in India.
| Movie | Word of Mouth | Prediction | Actual Collection | Difference | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mr X | Negative | 24 cr | 24.9 cr | 0.03% | Accurate | |
| Gabbar Is Back | Positive | 89 cr | 85 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Piku | Positive | 75 cr | 79 cr | 5% | Accurate | |
| Bombay Velvet | Extremely Negative | 24 cr | 24 cr | 0% | Accurate | |
| Tanu Weds Manu | Extremely Positive | 86 cr | 151 cr | 75% | Inaccurate | |
| Dil Dhadakne Do | Mixed | 85 cr | 78 cr | 8% | Accurate | |
| Hamari Adhuri Kahani | Mixed | 33 cr | 37 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| ABCD 2 | Positive | 102 cr | 105 cr | 2% | Accurate | |
| Bajrangi Bhaijaan | Extremely Positive | 285 cr | 320 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| Bangistan | Extremely Negative | 8 cr | 6.2 cr | 22% | Inaccurate | |
| Drishyam | Positive | 66 cr | 73 cr | 10% | Accurate | |
| Brothers | Negative | 103 cr | 83 cr | 20% | Inaccurate | |
| All Is Well | Negative | 16 cr | 15 cr | 6% | Accurate | |
| Phantom | Mixed | 61 cr | 54 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Welcome Back | Mixed | 120 cr | 98 cr | 18% | Inaccurate | |
| Hero | Mixed | 38 cr | 34 cr | 10% | Accurate | |
| Katti Batti | Extremely Negative | 24 cr | 24 cr | 0% | Accurate | |
| Calendar Girls | Negative | 8 cr | 7.1 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Kis Kisko Pyaar Karu | Positive | 57 cr | 50 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| Talvar | Positive | 20 cr | 29 | 31% | Inaccurate | |
| Jazbaa | Mixed | 29 cr | 27 cr | 6% | Accurate | |
| Pyaar Ka Punchnama 2 | Positive | 35 cr | 61 cr | 42% | Inaccurate | |
| Shaandaar | Extremely Negative | 48 cr | 43 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Prem Ratan Dhan Payo | Mixed | 230 cr | 213 cr | 7% | Accurate | |
| Tamasha | Negative | 68 cr | 69 cr | 0% | Accurate | |
| Dilwale | 145 cr | 148 cr | 2% | Accurate | ||
| Bajirao Mastani | 168 cr | 187 cr | 10% | Accurate | ||
Even Bang Bang did more than 180 crore clashing with Haider (critically acclaimed film)
A whole section of media has always been agnst SRK as well as ROHIT SHETTY.. And by not supporting SRK in such a poor situation(nt tlkng abt collections as m still going with what I predicted) they just proved me right. SRK is a king who nvr lost even though he is fighting whole army alone.. And next 10 will prove me right.
Indicine Team
December 22, 2015 at 6:54 pm
@Mitesh, we really wouldn’t want to discuss about verdicts right now.. Let’s wait and see how it performs both in India and Overseas.
@indicine:You do not want to talk now about the sale of film, then why not a weekend Both films passed the final sale is writing two films?
I feel you have done with this action you want to tell people who do not look Dilwale. If you are really sincere in what you’re doing, you let the film over a weekend or two after you have written the final forecast. Still sell two films outside of India and within India is not final. You do this inequity in the right of a movie. You saw the work being done to tap the Indian film industry. Each film was good and people love to have more sales this were natural But you are at a sensitive time for the Christmas holidays approaching with this action did you lead your people to the video to show enmity yourself an actor.
It is my Open challenge to Indicine BM wont cross Dilwale BO collection.Even it is my challenge that dilwale will cross 170cr.If BM beat Dilwale then i will never visit indicine or even Dilwale end its run below 150cr then also i will leave indicine.This is also brave comment from true SRkian..My prediction First week 102cr 2nd weekend-39cr 2nd week-57 cr and remaining week 20cr total will be around 180cr.. and overseas it will earn 170cr..Mark my word
I predicted a bigger disaster than Bombay Helmet- still hope for me as it may not cross 100cr…!
Omg…i cant believe on my eyes… Srk fans r gonna cry very badly… Nice article… Moral of the story: content is the mighty king(exception: salman khan)
Srk takes his stardom to lightly n also thinks his fans r his atm machine.. Produce some crap…while salman wants his fans to enjoy the film…we know about aamir khan…today my frnd watched bm so my first question was WHY didn’t go for Dilwale? His answer was simple:i dont expect anything great from srk….this is situation right now.
BTW I apologise for creating negativity for Bajirao Mastani.Slb has surely bounced back and showed the power of content
King of Clashes has become King of u-turns n now King of Excuses -all within a week- lol
Content is the main problem of Dilwale… I dont know why srk accepted this below avg story…If ranbir or ranveer acted this film fill would not 50cr..thats sure…I hope FAN and RAEES will give answer to dear haters….
@@@@End of 2nd week ready to take harsh comments from Srk fans including me.Dilwale will never loss to BM in any case…
@NVS 7:15 pm : You don’t understand sarcasm. Do you ? :P
I called it “sensible” because it got published.
Else, all your comments were going to trash without giving a second thought because you used to post same old rant everywhere.
So now rejoice this moment that finally you made it ;-)
indicine I think you will be going to prove wrong once again after weekend prediction at that time you was over excited and gave huge collection wid clash and now you again over exciting bt this time for bajirao
ya I can understand you are facing problem bcoz u r not use to this type of clash bt mark my word dilwale is going to collect anywhere above bajirao bcoz nobody understand the trend
Its a joke because srk movie pickup on 24 25 second weekend
If this clash from a ‘small’ film has shaken up the kingdom of paglapur this much then imagine the shockhorror next Eid when the clash from SULTAN arrives…? Old kings will be dethroned, the common man/ enslaved youtube workers will be freed, the poor in bakrapur will be sheltered/ fed, and a revolution will take place all across the Nation…! Hhhmmmm I cant wait
It will cross at least 200 crores
Kkkkkkkiran bachao na muje odions paise wapas maang rahe h … Aaaa uuu aeaeaeae I am the king …. Save me plz
If any young super stars acted in dilwale..it will become biggest disaster…. It rides on only star power….Thats it…. FAN WILL GIVE TIGHT SLAP TO HATERS…MARK MY WORDS….
Im a srk fan…but Lets be practical dilwale will finish 160/170 cr
Another think, some srk haters are saying that salman Khan is the king of box office: well i want to remind that jai ho released on a “non’holiday” and did 117 cr. And prdp was expected to do 280 cr but it failed.
So i think the top stars are:
1 aamir khan
2 srk
3 salman khan
4 hirtikh
5 akky
6 ajay
Varun dawan fans is more than ranveer Singh fans and this is true
Bajiro mastani movie only for depika fans
Dilwale will be an all time blockbuster at overseas enough is said.
@HAMAZ KHAN dont be an ass and an idiiot. The films you mentioned were both over 100 crores. So put your brains back in your derriere and get some sense. The issue here is not about Salman Khan it is about BM kicking the butt of Dilwale. So stopping grabbing at the straws and face facts. Salman Khan has 9 straight back to back top movies, when did any other actor in the past twenty years do this, plus he is also the first actor to have the highest earnings in one year. You keep trying to hash the past but we today are looking at the present. SRK and fans like you has caused his demise, he is now a wash out, that’s why he has been calling and begging Salman to postpone Sultan so that he can at least save face by manipulation of his box office figures. Go get your facts straight before coming and commenting your stupid nonsense.
@indicine, did u take effect of star wars 7 as this big movie will affect both movies..???
BM has surpassed my expectations. Very very sad now. Not going to make any predictions for srk films from now on. Apologies to indicine users for my awful predictions
From now SRK should think which is more important script or friends…Hope Fan raees will get back his power as an actor….
My prediction:
Bm: 138 to 145
Dilwale: 125 to 130
Note: star wars 7 is going to release on 25th it will affect both movies..
What a joke by indicine. Still licking the foot of srk? Just accept that reality that srk doesn’t have stardom. His movies hardly become blockbuster and that too in a leap year. Now even deepika is set to bear him with clash. Thats proves that CE and HNY’s credit goes to deepika. Srk id nothing in front of real megastar aamir khan.
every one think MB affect Dilwale collection but the political reason and protest is the reason who affect collection other then 4 days collection should cross 100cr .
I think BM 145 – 155
Dilwale 135- 145
history has been made. srk has been defeated. It means slb’s stardom is more than srk’s stardom. Really a shameful act indeed.
dilwale 1st week 75+9+8+8=100cr 2nd week 17+15+13+6+5+8+7= 70cr 170cr 2weeks indicine be positive