There were two films releases last weekend. One film had arguably the biggest star cast of 2015 in a genre that was expected to hold universal appeal. The other was expected to take a slow start and perform well in a couple of states if the word-of-mouth was nothing less than excellent.
Not a single trade analyst gave Bajirao Mastani a chance. Even in the worst case scenario, Dilwale was expected to lead. After all, the audience tend to like entertainers. Like we mentioned in one of our articles, Dilwale had a team that never failed (read). The director has given several blockbusters, the lead star is arguably the biggest the industry has ever produced and his pairing with Kajol is evergreen. The younger star, Varun Dhawan, had taken giant strides in the last couple of years.
But the box office game is unpredictable and a great leveller. Every star, big or small, has to go through this test every time his / her film releases. For someone like Shah Rukh Khan – who we firmly believe is beyond box office numbers, for the simple reason that he has achieved everything (and more) in the industry – it is still a test. He is the face of films like Dilwale and the responsibility of ensuring that the investors of his films recover their investment and earn profits, is on his shoulders.
The responsibility further increased with a film like ‘Dilwale’ because his company turned distributors and is now adopting a semi-studio model by both producing and distributing their films. Territories were also sold for exorbitant prices because the film was expected to collect no less than Rs 200 crore and recovery for individual distributors might prove to be tough if the film doesn’t sustain in the long run.
On the other hand, we have a film that was written off by everyone in trade, including us. It’s that very film that could eventually win the battle and topple the all mighty against all odds.
We are going with a very bold prediction for both Bajirao Mastani and Dilwale. We expect the Shah Rukh Khan starrer to finish below the 150 crore mark at the domestic box office and Sanjay Leela Bhansali’s Bajirao Mastani to cross the 165 crore in India.
| Movie | Word of Mouth | Prediction | Actual Collection | Difference | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mr X | Negative | 24 cr | 24.9 cr | 0.03% | Accurate | |
| Gabbar Is Back | Positive | 89 cr | 85 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Piku | Positive | 75 cr | 79 cr | 5% | Accurate | |
| Bombay Velvet | Extremely Negative | 24 cr | 24 cr | 0% | Accurate | |
| Tanu Weds Manu | Extremely Positive | 86 cr | 151 cr | 75% | Inaccurate | |
| Dil Dhadakne Do | Mixed | 85 cr | 78 cr | 8% | Accurate | |
| Hamari Adhuri Kahani | Mixed | 33 cr | 37 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| ABCD 2 | Positive | 102 cr | 105 cr | 2% | Accurate | |
| Bajrangi Bhaijaan | Extremely Positive | 285 cr | 320 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| Bangistan | Extremely Negative | 8 cr | 6.2 cr | 22% | Inaccurate | |
| Drishyam | Positive | 66 cr | 73 cr | 10% | Accurate | |
| Brothers | Negative | 103 cr | 83 cr | 20% | Inaccurate | |
| All Is Well | Negative | 16 cr | 15 cr | 6% | Accurate | |
| Phantom | Mixed | 61 cr | 54 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Welcome Back | Mixed | 120 cr | 98 cr | 18% | Inaccurate | |
| Hero | Mixed | 38 cr | 34 cr | 10% | Accurate | |
| Katti Batti | Extremely Negative | 24 cr | 24 cr | 0% | Accurate | |
| Calendar Girls | Negative | 8 cr | 7.1 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Kis Kisko Pyaar Karu | Positive | 57 cr | 50 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| Talvar | Positive | 20 cr | 29 | 31% | Inaccurate | |
| Jazbaa | Mixed | 29 cr | 27 cr | 6% | Accurate | |
| Pyaar Ka Punchnama 2 | Positive | 35 cr | 61 cr | 42% | Inaccurate | |
| Shaandaar | Extremely Negative | 48 cr | 43 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Prem Ratan Dhan Payo | Mixed | 230 cr | 213 cr | 7% | Accurate | |
| Tamasha | Negative | 68 cr | 69 cr | 0% | Accurate | |
| Dilwale | 145 cr | 148 cr | 2% | Accurate | ||
| Bajirao Mastani | 168 cr | 187 cr | 10% | Accurate | ||
@indicine what kind of logic is this ???-
Both dilwale and bm budget are the same
dilwale 125 crore
Bm 125 crore
if bm earns 120 crore it will be a hit
but if dilwale earns 120 crore it will be considered a flop …????
if u talk about satellite rights then dilwale is ahead
if u talk about overseas performance then
again dilwale is far ahead !!!!
I am waiting for a clarification plz ??????
@indicine
Please stop flogging a dead horse aka dilwaale
Aamir yesterday met a fan with progeria….hope to see an article on it
Dilwale trend isn’t bad what hurt Dilwale is openning day n Monday drop otherwise Dilwale trending is very good everything will be clear in next 5days but my heart says Dilwale win the clash margin may not be huge
Bm got more screens due to eros-3050
Dilwale got lesser screen less than 3000 and negativity has been created
But still my prediction dilwale 200cr+
BM 125-150 cr
Dimaag to har kisi ke paas hota hai, magar sab samajhdaar nahi hote!!!
So question is do u really think flop excel entertainment will release raees with brand yrf movie sultan? I have doubt on it
But I think Salman – srk is friend now
May be Salman will move back to save his friend career…. Or may be srk will move back but I think clash of sultan and raees will not happen sure shot
@xzone, 6.57 p.m lol i don’t need a certificate from someone like u to talk about by sensibility , its the last thing i expect something like these coming out from a “srk fan”, yes from a “srk fan!” :D :D it would do ur idol & his fans a world of good if u can do such things to ur compatriots from lungipur :D
I bashed BM a lot before the release but now I accept my defeat
I will still predict 300 crore for dilwale but after losing i will accept my defeat.
Some SRKtards were chanting on twitter, It was Khooni Monday!!! Deepika ne hi SRK ko Super Star Banaya aur Aaaj SRK ka Pack Up bhi karwa diya….
Agree with indicine about dilwale prediction but bajirao mastani prediction is too much….
Both will collect 150 cr… Don’t know but feel sad for dilwale team they should be strict on 25th Dec release…
Really happy for bajirao mastani team there hard work of 365 days got success
I don’t know what to say clearly accept the fact that bm has surpassed everybody’s expectations and Dilwale has clearly disappointed
Not only was their negativity from political parties but certainly srk doing 3 masala movies on a trot also didn’t augur well with the audiences.It’s unfortunate that fan had to be postponed
It’s clear that srk needs to be more careful when it comes to green lighting films directed by his friends
As an Srk fan I am terribly disappointed with the collections and also it might be the least successful movie of bollywoods most beloved pair.Wish rohit had stuck to his strength rather than getting bogged down by the pressure of delivering an intense romantic film.The end result was an underwhelming film
Every one has a right to express theri own opinion and so does everyone has a right to criticise others.
Here Indicine i will like to critices your LBO..
Firstly , yes BM has excellent reports. It has a better WOM than compared to Dilwale but does it mean it can beat Dilwale which is already leading by a margin of 17 Crore!
It will take a long time first to cover this gap of 17 crore and on the other hand it isn’t like that Dilwale has stopped collecting or has been crashed. Its too early to predict a lifetime total so early
Secondly , Dilwale is a family entertainer which usally performs better on weekends rather than weekdays , as families usually tend to flock on theatres more on weekends rather than weekdays. Yet Dilwale has held reasonably weel even on weekdays and has not come crashing down.
Thirdly , Reports for Tuesday are not bad even. It has maintained the same level as on monday with minor drops. Overall very steady! BM is a film which will perform well on weekdays as compared to Dilwale as it has a better WOM! Comes the weekend families will again flock to theatres and Dilwale will again grow and would not be suprised if it again beats BM even it has better WOM!
Lastly , Festive season is yet to begin and people especially families would prefer Dilwale than BM as it is a film they can enjoy together. Nothing against BM. Happy for both the films. But rating Dilwale so low is not justified. If it had crashed badly would have agreed but even when it is performing decently if not good writing it so down is not justified!!
Since 2008, SRK hasn’t given 1 highest grossing movie of the year. Things have definitely changed.
It looks like 2016 will be even tougher because Hrithik, Akshay, Ajay, Salman, Aamir have interesting movies coming up. the Blockbuster King Rohit Shetty failed to deliver a blockbuster this time.
Salman fans have seen disappointment thrice in two years.
Jai Ho – Washout
Kick – Only 6-8cr more than CE which released a year earlier.
PRDP – Finished under CE more than 2 years later with the widest release ever.
BB is the only saving grace, as it was a good movie all in all.
So stop pointing fingers.
If your film is content rich, it has already won you half the battle, the other half depends on the release date, align these factors and you have a winner all the way.
U know poor content like prdp work due to extended weekend and it cross 200 cr
But about dilwale everything goes wrong
They were overconfident
Clash with bajirao mastani again overconfidence they thought it’s sawariya2
And most important is release before Christmas festival… Overconfidence
I think if dilwale release on 25th dec they get min 3700 screen …. mostly get single screen and mostly it get benefit of Christmas weekend , week and New year weekend but now result r out… It’s performing badly… Negative wom spreading fastly…
I’m sure if they released on 25th Dec atleast movie cross 200 cr ….
Salman khan and Aamir khan are far ahead of Shahrukh khan as far as boxoffice is corncerned..even Shahrukh Khan told that…Shahrukh Khan is ageing and his end is near…All of his film opens well because of curiosity…He is a great businessman and a marketing genius…He knows how to market his products well…But always at the end quality wins…From 2016 onwards the festival release monopoly of khans will be targetted…Ajay devgan has diwali releases in 2016 and 2017 and he plans to release his future films for diwali too…Salman and Aamir will survive…Salman has loyal fan base who liks his masala movies and Aamit has class audience…Age is not a bar for them but Shahrukh khan will be hugely affected by ageing process as he is not romantic anymore…let’z c how long Shahrukh Khan extends his ageing process and keep his tag as KING KHAN
everyones loving itbin malaysia.I don’t know what is wrong with indian audience.
why are you so hell bent on bringing down the one person who makes you proud all over the world!
it is indeed a shame!
#gowatchdilwale
Won’t be using indicine for few weeks for obvious reasons
But will make a grand comeback for sure because srk has given me million reasons to feel happy.Even now most of my weekends is spent in watching his previous movies.It’s just a minor hiccup but for sure he would bounce back with Fan
I was chanting the pro BM mantra long before even SLB dared to dream such a thing happening…!
Lol at how Indicine murdered @Tiger and now @Ultron
=D
Just Wait And Watch Who Will Win
After 10Days Everything Will Be Cleared,
Don’t Forget Dilwale Is Still Stady On BO!
I always knew n predicted that Bajirao would eventually cut in half the Wankhede Hooligan- I was shouting it from the rooftops for months…!
All Hail the Maratha Warrior and the NEW Wankhede Warrior
@indicine I think you became more harsh toward srk 10cr with 2700-2800screen, protest clash with high budget dream project extremely positive WOM movie is far better yar I think you forgot some of solo reliesed with 4500screen without clash prdp Monday collection you also know that not every movie is like sholay and ddlg so why u treated dilwale with OSO even you r also know positive wom movie will always do great from Monday but otherside with lots of factor dilwale match it with mixed response and less screen and I feel thatdilwale will do really well lifetime collection just wait and watch other sites also appreciat dilwale and know factor involves around it but you are just want OSO V/s sawariya so every time BB nhibanti kabhi jai ho v banti h imaging if jai ho realesed wid clash of positive wom movie than it can’t be cross even 50cr but here dilwale is going to take place in top 3 list so don’t be baise
dilwale and bm worldwide nett prediction dil india nett india gross overseas total 170 260 85 345 crore bm 180 270 65 335 crore. versdict dil: average bm: losing
Please give today’s update
If Dilwale does not cross 250 crore then I will leave indicine forever. Its a bet!!
@Indicine please do a reasoning, analysis of underperformance of dilwale and bm toppling it. Thanks!
@Himanshu, this is a prediction. It could go wrong. Analysis will be after the two films end their run. First week of January.
My Predictions :- Dilwale…
1 – 21
2 – 20
3 – 24
weekend – 65
4 – 10
5 – 10
6 – 9
7 – 11
week – 105
8 – 20
9 – 15
10 – 16
weekend 2 – 51
11 – 6
12 – 5
13 – 4
14 – 4
week 2 – 71
15 – 5
16 – 4
17 – 5
weekend 3 – 14
18 – 3
19 – 2
20 – 1
21 – 1
week 3 – 21
Total – 205 crs
That means dilwale will be average movie bcoz total budget is 145 cr