IndicineLBO: Dilwale and Bajirao Mastani Lifetime Prediction

There were two films releases last weekend. One film had arguably the biggest star cast of 2015 in a genre that was expected to hold universal appeal. The other was expected to take a slow start and perform well in a couple of states if the word-of-mouth was nothing less than excellent.

Not a single trade analyst gave Bajirao Mastani a chance. Even in the worst case scenario, Dilwale was expected to lead. After all, the audience tend to like entertainers. Like we mentioned in one of our articles, Dilwale had a team that never failed (read). The director has given several blockbusters, the lead star is arguably the biggest the industry has ever produced and his pairing with Kajol is evergreen. The younger star, Varun Dhawan, had taken giant strides in the last couple of years.

But the box office game is unpredictable and a great leveller. Every star, big or small, has to go through this test every time his / her film releases. For someone like Shah Rukh Khan – who we firmly believe is beyond box office numbers, for the simple reason that he has achieved everything (and more) in the industry – it is still a test. He is the face of films like Dilwale and the responsibility of ensuring that the investors of his films recover their investment and earn profits, is on his shoulders.

The responsibility further increased with a film like ‘Dilwale’ because his company turned distributors and is now adopting a semi-studio model by both producing and distributing their films. Territories were also sold for exorbitant prices because the film was expected to collect no less than Rs 200 crore and recovery for individual distributors might prove to be tough if the film doesn’t sustain in the long run.

On the other hand, we have a film that was written off by everyone in trade, including us. It’s that very film that could eventually win the battle and topple the all mighty against all odds.

We are going with a very bold prediction for both Bajirao Mastani and Dilwale. We expect the Shah Rukh Khan starrer to finish below the 150 crore mark at the domestic box office and Sanjay Leela Bhansali’s Bajirao Mastani to cross the 165 crore in India.

MovieWord of MouthPredictionActual
Mr XNegative24 cr24.9 cr0.03%Accurate
Gabbar Is BackPositive89 cr85 cr3%Accurate
PikuPositive75 cr79 cr5%Accurate
Bombay VelvetExtremely Negative24 cr24 cr0%Accurate
Tanu Weds ManuExtremely Positive86 cr151 cr75%Inaccurate
Dil Dhadakne DoMixed85 cr78 cr8%Accurate
Hamari Adhuri KahaniMixed33 cr37 cr12%Accurate
ABCD 2Positive102 cr105 cr2%Accurate
Bajrangi BhaijaanExtremely Positive285 cr320 cr12%Accurate
BangistanExtremely Negative8 cr6.2 cr22%Inaccurate
DrishyamPositive66 cr73 cr10%Accurate
BrothersNegative103 cr83 cr20%Inaccurate
All Is WellNegative16 cr15 cr6%Accurate
PhantomMixed61 cr54 cr11%Accurate
Welcome BackMixed120 cr98 cr18%Inaccurate
HeroMixed38 cr34 cr10%Accurate
Katti BattiExtremely Negative24 cr24 cr0%Accurate
Calendar GirlsNegative8 cr7.1 cr11%Accurate
Kis Kisko Pyaar KaruPositive57 cr50 cr12%Accurate
TalvarPositive20 cr2931%Inaccurate
JazbaaMixed29 cr27 cr6%Accurate
Pyaar Ka Punchnama 2Positive35 cr61 cr42%Inaccurate
ShaandaarExtremely Negative48 cr43 cr11%Accurate
Prem Ratan Dhan PayoMixed230 cr213 cr7%Accurate
TamashaNegative68 cr69 cr0%Accurate
Dilwale145 cr148 cr2%Accurate
Bajirao Mastani168 cr187 cr10%Accurate


  • See the results.. Now SRK fans should not comment big after seeing this

    Just accept the truth that Dilwale is not good and BM is a better movie

  • This is what I really wanted. A good film should be the winner.Not a star driven crap should rull the box office. Hats off to the sensible indian audience who now knows which film to give the priority and make it a win.

  • Before release many articles were published that Dilwale will beat BM by a big distance and SRK has played masterstroke by taking PVR.. but see results, all masterstrokes got failed and SRK got bowled with goggley which is called content.

  • what to say. just hope u r proved wrong in case of dilwale. no problem with what BM earns. good movies must earn good at BO.
    But being a sincere fan, wants dilwale to excell too. hope it does

  • Before release srk films are over hyped but box-office result is dull…king of mannat will be finished in 2016 by sultan and flop fan

  • I can assure that now srk will change his release date of next eid to clash with salman will be danger stay as Salman is more popular and more have fan following than srk

  • Terming srk as beyond BO numbers is the last thing u can say exaggeratedly indicine, if not for B.O collections srk wouldn’t have never done movies like CE or HNY or Dilwale and instead would have done movies like CDI or swades or ‘phir milenge’ or Airlift or baby or drishyam or BB and even if u still believe he is beyond B.O then i can say the same for salman or aamir or even akki but the truth is that the bigger the star the bigger the mooolah ur movies are expected to collect at the B.O , as simple as that .

  • It’s again proven that content always wins. I hope that your prediction turns out to be true, Indicine. Cheers to Sanjay Leela bhansali for such a bold move of releasing his film alongside dilwale and beating it in India domestic collections, hopefully.

  • the list of highest grossing movie of that particular year. last 11 year data.

    2005- no entry- salman Khan
    2006- dhoom 2 – hritik Rishab
    2007- om shanti om – srk
    2008 – gajini – aamir khan
    2009- 3idiots- aamir khan
    2010- dabang- salman Khan
    2011- body guard – salman Khan
    2012- ek tha tiger – salman khan
    2013- dhoom 3 – aamir khan
    2014- pk – aamir khan
    2015- bajrangi Bhai jaan – salman khan

    5 times it was salman Khan
    4 times it was aamir khan
    1 time hritik Rishab
    1 time its srk.

    time has changed. it is amir( most popular worldwide from the box office point of view) and salman who is ruling the Bollywood.
    the thing is simple these 2 stars are down to earth and not as active as srk in social media. , that’s why some of us have the wrong impression that srk is still ruling the Bollywood. it’s been more than 10 years. he is now behind these 2 stars. and box office collection shows this.

  • #Dilwale becomes biggest opening hindi film in pakistan beating #dhoom3. Friday.. 2.12cr Saturday.. 2.25cr Sunday.. 2.05cr Total.. 6.42cr

  • Now srkians will say that rubbish things like clash, protests etc, the truth is that dilwale is a crap and people have not liked the movie so they rejected it. As far as screen count is concerned ett also had similar or less screens than dilwale about 3yrs ago and still did 200crs, thats the star power of salman. Even with so much of negativity by srkians or should I say biggest fools prdp did 215 cr, infact it clashed with spectre in its second week which did 8 cr on first day. My family loved prdp and think it will be a rage on tv. Bajirao mastani was a good movie but still expected much more from slb who has given classics like hddck khamoshi black. It will be also a hit as the budget is over 120 cr.
    indicine please post my comment. jai ho!

  • DILWALE is the beginning Of the end for Shahrukh Khan…He is still undisputed king in overseas as per openings are considered,but his popularity is fading gradually because of his bad choice of scripts..Hope SRK will learn from Dilwale and bounce back…Best Wishes King Khan

  • I don’t think Dilwale finish under 150 crore , it will be 170-180 in worst case scenario .
    I know will surely come back with fan & Raees . But why people are saying end of Srk . In 2010 some stupid people has said that Akki is finished but comes strongly .
    Srk & Akki Sir are only superstar of Bollywood . Both has huge fan following .

  • Indicine am I dreaming?
    Can’t believe you guys have gone so bold that too at your favourite Shah Rukh K expense!!!
    Really things are changing… Time is taking a new dimension in hindi cinema.
    Wish both d movies recover their cost and must say I am going to be taking Ranveer much more serious.

  • Indicine u guys are pathetic! Stop jumping bandwagons and stick to your original prediction! Dilwale is going to beat BM at the box office and u just wait and watch! Wait for the holidays to come about!

  • going fully packed for third consecutive day in Pakistan.. Biggest ever Weekend for Hindi films and now chasing FF7 and JPN

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