There were two films releases last weekend. One film had arguably the biggest star cast of 2015 in a genre that was expected to hold universal appeal. The other was expected to take a slow start and perform well in a couple of states if the word-of-mouth was nothing less than excellent.
Not a single trade analyst gave Bajirao Mastani a chance. Even in the worst case scenario, Dilwale was expected to lead. After all, the audience tend to like entertainers. Like we mentioned in one of our articles, Dilwale had a team that never failed (read). The director has given several blockbusters, the lead star is arguably the biggest the industry has ever produced and his pairing with Kajol is evergreen. The younger star, Varun Dhawan, had taken giant strides in the last couple of years.
But the box office game is unpredictable and a great leveller. Every star, big or small, has to go through this test every time his / her film releases. For someone like Shah Rukh Khan – who we firmly believe is beyond box office numbers, for the simple reason that he has achieved everything (and more) in the industry – it is still a test. He is the face of films like Dilwale and the responsibility of ensuring that the investors of his films recover their investment and earn profits, is on his shoulders.
The responsibility further increased with a film like ‘Dilwale’ because his company turned distributors and is now adopting a semi-studio model by both producing and distributing their films. Territories were also sold for exorbitant prices because the film was expected to collect no less than Rs 200 crore and recovery for individual distributors might prove to be tough if the film doesn’t sustain in the long run.
On the other hand, we have a film that was written off by everyone in trade, including us. It’s that very film that could eventually win the battle and topple the all mighty against all odds.
We are going with a very bold prediction for both Bajirao Mastani and Dilwale. We expect the Shah Rukh Khan starrer to finish below the 150 crore mark at the domestic box office and Sanjay Leela Bhansali’s Bajirao Mastani to cross the 165 crore in India.
| Movie | Word of Mouth | Prediction | Actual Collection | Difference | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mr X | Negative | 24 cr | 24.9 cr | 0.03% | Accurate | |
| Gabbar Is Back | Positive | 89 cr | 85 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Piku | Positive | 75 cr | 79 cr | 5% | Accurate | |
| Bombay Velvet | Extremely Negative | 24 cr | 24 cr | 0% | Accurate | |
| Tanu Weds Manu | Extremely Positive | 86 cr | 151 cr | 75% | Inaccurate | |
| Dil Dhadakne Do | Mixed | 85 cr | 78 cr | 8% | Accurate | |
| Hamari Adhuri Kahani | Mixed | 33 cr | 37 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| ABCD 2 | Positive | 102 cr | 105 cr | 2% | Accurate | |
| Bajrangi Bhaijaan | Extremely Positive | 285 cr | 320 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| Bangistan | Extremely Negative | 8 cr | 6.2 cr | 22% | Inaccurate | |
| Drishyam | Positive | 66 cr | 73 cr | 10% | Accurate | |
| Brothers | Negative | 103 cr | 83 cr | 20% | Inaccurate | |
| All Is Well | Negative | 16 cr | 15 cr | 6% | Accurate | |
| Phantom | Mixed | 61 cr | 54 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Welcome Back | Mixed | 120 cr | 98 cr | 18% | Inaccurate | |
| Hero | Mixed | 38 cr | 34 cr | 10% | Accurate | |
| Katti Batti | Extremely Negative | 24 cr | 24 cr | 0% | Accurate | |
| Calendar Girls | Negative | 8 cr | 7.1 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Kis Kisko Pyaar Karu | Positive | 57 cr | 50 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| Talvar | Positive | 20 cr | 29 | 31% | Inaccurate | |
| Jazbaa | Mixed | 29 cr | 27 cr | 6% | Accurate | |
| Pyaar Ka Punchnama 2 | Positive | 35 cr | 61 cr | 42% | Inaccurate | |
| Shaandaar | Extremely Negative | 48 cr | 43 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Prem Ratan Dhan Payo | Mixed | 230 cr | 213 cr | 7% | Accurate | |
| Tamasha | Negative | 68 cr | 69 cr | 0% | Accurate | |
| Dilwale | 145 cr | 148 cr | 2% | Accurate | ||
| Bajirao Mastani | 168 cr | 187 cr | 10% | Accurate | ||
U r saying for the next 17 days dilwale will collect only 70 crores??.. with christmas weekend cmg up..plz indicine..baad mein maafi mangni padegi…u do know that the footfalls of dilwale were more than BM on monday…BM has booked all the high end SS…no worries…my prediction is 170-180 for dilwale and 160-170 for BM…
I m not downgrading BM..but annoyed u r hell bent on spreading negativity around dilwale..why ??
@iamsrk Its not child’s play to surpass a huge hollywood brand like #StarWars in a major world city like Dubai. Only a global megastar can d
I hope your prediction will go inaccurate.but @indicine why dilwale collection is so low overall it is good entertainment movie.
prediction is fr two films but article on only one film…indicine, its not going to help dilwale to collect 145 cr
BM 168cr Dilwale 145cr impossible because Dilwale will show much better growth than BM on Sunday n it will show more groth on holidays also twesday trend is very good but monday drop n opening is disappointing
Why i like srk i don’t know. But from my childhood i get excited for srk movies. The fact is that dilwale hurt me so much. Why srk,Why u play such a bakwas movie? We awaits ur movie as festival but u let down our feeling. We want our star to play damdar movie ,not a lazy movie. It is the fan that get more tensed and troubled when their superstar flim get failed. Look the FANS of salman khan and aamir. They give solid movie and their fan are proud of them. But look to our superstar Srk ,he gives us crap movie like hny and dilwale which make us feel so sad. When get out of the theater from the last 4 5 years watching srk movies, we are getting cheated. The enjoyment that salman and aamir flim gives is lacking in ur movie why? Make a nice movie ,have a damdar script then even after 1000 clash nobody can defeat you. But please srk dont play movie like dilwale and hny. But hope that u will be back with bang in coming years. Anyway either ur flim get flop or hit u always remain in my heart. Love u srk.
Why?picture abi baki h indicine.be positive.
Surely Ranveer now topping the youngistaan chart.
Ranveer >Varun >Ranbir
Y is there a sense of hyprocrisy for SRK and Salman !!! who said the film was small …As a neutral audience i know BM was big considering SLB last film was a huge hit, No1 actress in Bollywood nd another top actress in priyanka chopra !! Rising star!! Just that trade thought doesnt mean everyone thinks the same….BM doing well bcoz its a good film :) DIlwale had a excellent opening thanks to SRK but content is the king nd now Rohit Shetty work starts…if it isnt performing well its not only SRK but also Rohit Shetty and his team!! nd in no way Dilwale wld effect SRK he along with Salman are equally potent at BO ..still dilwale opens better than BB and PRDP in overseas collects 40% more than PRDP nd better than BB thats brilliant actually…Diwlale underperforming in India cant deny that..
With The release of Star Wars this Friday, it could hurt the collections of Dilwale more than BM, it seems, for the coming weekend.
Dilwale 180cr
Indicine,if Dilwale collects <150cr what would be its verdict? Flop, below average or what? Will this be SRK's 1st failure after Paheli?
Salute mr sanjay leela bhansali.
Over rated romantic king finished now.
If Bajirao Mastani will cross 150 crore it will be big success for the team . Bajirao kabhi hara Tha na harega .
dilwale 140 and bajirao will do 160 crore.
Bajirao Mastani at the most 150cr+
and Dilwale too 150cr+
i dont think that Bajirao can over take Dilwale with a margin of 15cr.
Its a neck to Neck fight….
Yeh toh LOL ho gaya…
the biggest fault of SRK is doing masala movies with worst directers like farah khan & rohit. But I have believe on his hard work and great acting talent. He surely come back with nice films like FAN and RAEES
will take sanyas for few days from your site. really very sad. feeling so unhappy after so many days.
@Romance Dilwale.. aren’t you the same guy who spammed every day on Indicine saying “Bajirao less than 60 crore lifetime mark my words” LOL.
Saw Dilwale, songs and car flying show only, hope it had a much better story…then would have a much stronger run at BO.
If you really love Bollywood Movies, you would never talk about seeing dilwale.
Some amusing logics of srk PR fans:
1)movie music, distribution ke rights toh bik gae, hume kya?:p ~~bhai aaj tum distributor/exhibitor ko loss ho raha hai toh haath khade kar rhe ho, kal jab agar raees -sultan type clash hua toh woh tumhe screen kyu denge?, aur woh bhi thik,, srk ki kya respect reh jayegi fraternity mai?
2)overseas mai super hit hai “UAE” ka king::)
~~achi baat hai! , but ek baat yeh btao ki kya overseas primary market hai kya tumhara,, agar modi ji india mai hi haar jae toh wembley, madison square pe kab tak public aayegi unhe dekhne?
3)bjp bhakts ke protest ki wajah se yeh sab hua:(
~~srk is the biggest Marketing king in india and the first rule of mrktng says”any publicity is good publicity ” moreover ‘pk’ ke time bhi yeh bhot hua, result sab ke samne hai,acha kya sarey reviewers aur audience bhi sanghi bjp bhakt hai kya,? Aur abhi dekhna amir ne toh aur bada statement diya hai lekin agar movie achi hui toh dangal blockbuster hogi! Bcoz This my nation is most tolerant nation!
4)clash hone ke baad bhi itna kamaya, ab kya jaan loge? :(
~~srk ka dhyan picture se jyada, slb ki watt lagane mai tha(personal) , warna koi bhi jana jo bollywood mai itne years se hai aur itni hit movies de chuka hai,, woh dilwale ka final print dekh ke keh hi nahi sakta tha ki yeh bajirao ke samne tik payegi, yeh overconfident srk sahab h jinko apne stardom ka example dikhana tha,, backfire ho gaya!
5)purane stats dikhaenge yeh dekho hny, ce, ddlj, oso:)
~~bhai tum aur tumhara badshaah ddlj ke zamane se nikal nahi paa rhe ho yahi toh problem hai,, srk ka objective uss time achi movie banane mai tha ab uska objective Salman – amir ko beat karna hai at any cost, train hi galat pakdi hai toh sahi destination pe kaise pahochoge, baat samjho pyaaro!
~~A man may fall many times, but he won’t be a failure until he says that someone pushed him.~~
No srkianz will comment in coming days because they all need time to make execuses…
Note ; I m a die hard salman fan but i not a blind and does not hate any other actor
Shocking.
Dilwale requires collection of more than 150 cr to be cleared in Safe Zone. That’s impossible.
Now its a first time indicine have not publish any excuse for dilwale in this article.
Respect_/\_
Srk is my idol. One average flim will not affect his glorious 23 years. All srk fans support u r idol and prove indicine wrong by making dilwale 150+. Even salman fans made jai ho a 120 crore movie why not us. Common lets do it.
Hahahahahaahahahahaaa, King of clashes my foot! ?????
Stardom less SRK, will lose to Kal ka chorra Ranveer!
SRK fans, muhh chupane ki jagah dhundhlo, boht lagne wali hai tumhari aane wale dino me. ???
Ab toh SRK fans Aamir-Salman fans se fight tak nahi Kr sakte. Inko Ranbir-Ranveer, Tushar Kapoor Aur Uday Chopra fans se ladne do. ROFLMAO!
That’s bold. To turn this scenario into reality, BM will first have to overcome the deficit incurred so far and then gain on the total of Dilwale. Let’s see who eventually comes on top in this battle between David and Goliath. May the best team win.
oho oho….at 145cr the verdict will be FLOP…..