RAEES vs SULTAN: The Mother of all box office clashes!

By Archit Mishra (Tweets @architmishra_06)

Come Eid-2016 and the mightiest superstars of Bollywood might lock horns with each other at the ticket window. No points for guessing, we’re talking about Shah Rukh Khan’s Raees taking on Salman Khan’s Sultan. Though, I’m still skeptical about this clash because, keep aside Salman, I really can’t imagine Yash Raj Films fighting it out against their all-time favourite star Shahrukh. But both the stars coming out in media and putting their claim at Eid-2016 couple of times, something that was evident during JTHJ-SOS clash, has only weakened my thought. Well, as of now we don’t know whether this clash will take place or not, but in this write up, we will attempt to foresee different aspects of this clash, if it happens.

Prospects of SULTAN

1. It’s known to all that the biggest advantage for Sultan is the man himself, Salman Khan. The present box office feat that Salman enjoys is just unparalleled.

With Chennai Express (2013), Shahrukh had managed to maintain a lead over Salman in Mumbai, Andhra/Nizam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Mysore circuits even after the release of Kick (2014). But, Bajrangi Bhaijaan has just altered the rules. From North to South, East to West, today Salman has an edge over Shahrukh in all the circuits except Tamil Nadu/ Kerala.

All India Circuit-Wise Comparison of Highest Grossers
Salman Khan v/s Shahrukh Khan

Territory	Salman Khan	Shahrukh Khan
Mumbai	90.7 (Bajrangi Bhaijaan)	68.5 (Chennai Express)
Delhi/ UP	70.5 (Bajrangi Bhaijaan)	38.8 (Chennai Express)
East Punjab	32.9 (Bajrangi Bhaijaan)	15.2 (Happy New Year)
Rajasthan	18.4 (Bajrangi Bhaijaan)	11.5 (Chennai Express)
CP Berar	19.0 (Bajrangi Bhaijaan)	10.0 (Chennai Express)
CI	12.5 (Bajrangi Bhaijaan)	7.5 (Chennai Express)
Nizam/ Andhra	16.2 (Bajrangi Bhaijaan)	15.2 (Chennai Express)
Mysore	17.3 (Bajrangi Bhaijaan)	15.1 (Chennai Express)
Tamil Nadu/ Kerala	4.4  (Bajrangi Bhaijaan)	6.9 (Chennai Express)
West Bengal	17.1 (Bajrangi Bhaijaan)	11.0 (Chennai Express)
Bihar	8.5   (Bajrangi Bhaijaan)	4.8   (Chennai Express)
Assam	3.3   (Bajrangi Bhaijaan)	1.8   (Chennai Express)
Odisha	3.8   (Bajrangi Bhaijaan)	2.2   (Chennai Express)

Note: All the collections are in CRORES.

2. Another big benefit for Sultan is that it is backed by the country’s best production house, Yash Raj Film (YRF). Thus, one can expect the budgeting, marketing and distribution to be top notch. Prior to Sultan, Salman and YRF have collaborated for Ek Tha Tiger which was super successful. Moreover, YRF are extremely smart in handling distribution, especially during a clash (everybody’s aware of their tactics during JTHJ vs SOS clash). The question is will they fight that hard against someone as influential as SRK?

3. Though, not much is revealed about the film so far, frankly speaking it’s too difficult to figure out any disadvantage for Sultan. Still, if one has to point a thing, I would like to know more about its genre – Action, Romance, Biography, Family or Sports, what exactly is Sultan all about because that might decide how big a winner it has the potential to turn out eventually.

Prospects of RAEES

1. Just like Sultan, the biggest plus for RAEES is its lead actor, Shah Rukh Khan. Moreover, Shahrukh’s impeccable record on clashes makes him invincible at the box-office. Just a look at the below data and you would know that Shahrukh’s best has come when someone has challenged him. In fact, except Aamir Khan, there’s practically no A-List actor from the present lot that hasn’t tasted defeat in the hands of SRK. Amitabh Bachchan, Salman Khan, Akshay Kumar, Hrithik Roshan, Ajay Devgn, Govinda and Ranbir Kapoor, all have finished second to SRK in a clash.

The Clash Record
Shah Rukh Khan vs others

Year	Shahrukh Khan	Opposition
1998	KKHH[46.9 cr – ALL TIME BLOCKBUSTER]	Bade Miya Chhote Miya[19.2 cr – HIT]
2000	Mohabbatein[42 cr – BLOCKBUSTER]	Mission Kashmir[23 cr – AVERAGE]
2004	Veer Zara[41.9 cr – SUPER HIT]	Aitraaz[15.6 cr – AVERAGE]
2006	Don[50.3 cr – HIT]	Jaan-E-Mann[25.1 cr – FLOP]
2007	Om Shanti Om[78.2 cr – BLOCKBUSTER]	Saawariya[21 cr – DISASTER]
2012	JTHJ[120 cr – SUPER HIT]	SOS[101 cr – HIT]

2. Secondly, the genre and the subject of Raees goes very well with the festivities of Eid. The intention of the makers to cash in on this advantage is pretty much visible in their tag line “Baniye ka dimaag… Miya bhai ki daring…” SRK’s menacing, yet intelligent avatar, was liked by one and all. The fact that Raees also has Nawazuddin Siddiqui only adds brownie points in its favour.

3. It’s quite an irony that when the last time Shahrukh (Don) and Salman (Jaan-E-Mann) indulged in a face off, Shahrukh’s film was backed by the same banner, Farhan Akhtar and Ritesh Sidhwani’s Excel Entertainment. But, in reality, this only can be counted as a minus for Raees when compared with the veteran YRF.

An Insight of this Clash: Positive and Negative Aspects

1. Number of Screens – The Toughest Test: The biggest challenge for the producers / distributors will be to maximize the screen size of the country to a number that can house the enormous audience. Below is the depiction of Screen Count Distribution and Footfalls (Number of tickets sold) during Eid since last five years.

Year	Movie	Screen Count	Footfalls(in crores)
2015	Bajrangi Bhaijaan	4100 (+8%)	3.55 (+47%)
2014	Kick	3800 (+ 5%)	2.42 (-3%)
2013	Chennai Express	3600 (+13%)	2.52 (+2%)
2012	Ek Tha Tiger	3200 (+16%)	2.47 (+11%)
2011	Bodyguard	2750	2.22

Today, a Khan film to be declared a Blockbuster must have at least 2 crore footfalls. Here an interesting point is that footfalls have remained more or less same between 2012 and 2014 before Bajrangi Bhaijaan grew magnanimously (+47%) and a similar growth in 2016 shall not be a cake walk. Still, considering the grandeur of this clash, if we consider the maximum growths in footfall and screen count, the picture for 2016 could something turn out like below.

Screen Count (with +16%) : 4800 (approx.)
Footfall (with +47%) : 5.2 crore

The screen size might be manageable, but footfall looks like a fantasy. This probably is the best case scenario which seems to be highly improbable. These footfalls are comparable only to that of Gadar which has the highest footfalls since last 20 years.

2. Magnitude of Success: Honestly, it is practically impossible to predict the moolah that these two films can bring in together on a festival as big as Eid. And this is also a proven fact that as far as content is accepted, two films can easily survive together, for ex. Gadar vs Lagaan or Jab Tak Hai Jaan vs Son of Sardaar. But the more relevant question is that will it be equivalent to what both these films are capable of minting as solo festival releases?

Have we ever wondered how many films does Bollywood make every year and how many of them actually succeed in keeping their distributors and producers happy? Consider 2014 as an example and the below facts can come as a shocker to many.

2014 Box Office Scenario

Total Films Released	200
Safe Ventures Films that recovered their money (includes Hit Films)	21
Clean Hits	11
Success Percentage	10%
Hit Percentage	5%

The major chunk of this 5% profit and 10% recovery come from the Khans every year. Considering the current trade system, the least cost that a Khan film would land is 120 crore. Now the question is, would YRF and EXCEL consider the clash factor and mutually agree to sell their films at lesser prices to the distributors? Well, honestly speaking, that’s very difficult.
Minimum Combined Cost = 240 crore
Minimum Net Theatrical Business for Recovery = 450 crore plus.

• Huge Increase in Ticket Prices: It’s very much given that to accommodate the dearth of screens, producers/ distributors of both the films may release their films at all-time high rates which will eventually take a toll on the common man’s pocket.
• Unprecedented craze: As soon as there was an announcement of this clash, everybody starting from fans, to distributors and social media started speculating. Imagine what would happen if this clash turns into reality. The curiosity shall be beyond any comparisons and the media might present this as the D-Day battle with the winner taking everything and the loser left empty hands.

Author Note: This article is not to create fan-wars, but to give the box office lovers at Indicine a clearer picture as to what to expect if the massive clash does take place. I would love to know what you feel about the article. Do share your feedback and suggestions in the comments section. Any article suggestions are welcome!  Also, do read my older article that were published on Indicine before.

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