There were two films releases last weekend. One film had arguably the biggest star cast of 2015 in a genre that was expected to hold universal appeal. The other was expected to take a slow start and perform well in a couple of states if the word-of-mouth was nothing less than excellent.
Not a single trade analyst gave Bajirao Mastani a chance. Even in the worst case scenario, Dilwale was expected to lead. After all, the audience tend to like entertainers. Like we mentioned in one of our articles, Dilwale had a team that never failed (read). The director has given several blockbusters, the lead star is arguably the biggest the industry has ever produced and his pairing with Kajol is evergreen. The younger star, Varun Dhawan, had taken giant strides in the last couple of years.
But the box office game is unpredictable and a great leveller. Every star, big or small, has to go through this test every time his / her film releases. For someone like Shah Rukh Khan – who we firmly believe is beyond box office numbers, for the simple reason that he has achieved everything (and more) in the industry – it is still a test. He is the face of films like Dilwale and the responsibility of ensuring that the investors of his films recover their investment and earn profits, is on his shoulders.
The responsibility further increased with a film like ‘Dilwale’ because his company turned distributors and is now adopting a semi-studio model by both producing and distributing their films. Territories were also sold for exorbitant prices because the film was expected to collect no less than Rs 200 crore and recovery for individual distributors might prove to be tough if the film doesn’t sustain in the long run.
On the other hand, we have a film that was written off by everyone in trade, including us. It’s that very film that could eventually win the battle and topple the all mighty against all odds.
We are going with a very bold prediction for both Bajirao Mastani and Dilwale. We expect the Shah Rukh Khan starrer to finish below the 150 crore mark at the domestic box office and Sanjay Leela Bhansali’s Bajirao Mastani to cross the 165 crore in India.
| Movie | Word of Mouth | Prediction | Actual Collection | Difference | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mr X | Negative | 24 cr | 24.9 cr | 0.03% | Accurate | |
| Gabbar Is Back | Positive | 89 cr | 85 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Piku | Positive | 75 cr | 79 cr | 5% | Accurate | |
| Bombay Velvet | Extremely Negative | 24 cr | 24 cr | 0% | Accurate | |
| Tanu Weds Manu | Extremely Positive | 86 cr | 151 cr | 75% | Inaccurate | |
| Dil Dhadakne Do | Mixed | 85 cr | 78 cr | 8% | Accurate | |
| Hamari Adhuri Kahani | Mixed | 33 cr | 37 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| ABCD 2 | Positive | 102 cr | 105 cr | 2% | Accurate | |
| Bajrangi Bhaijaan | Extremely Positive | 285 cr | 320 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| Bangistan | Extremely Negative | 8 cr | 6.2 cr | 22% | Inaccurate | |
| Drishyam | Positive | 66 cr | 73 cr | 10% | Accurate | |
| Brothers | Negative | 103 cr | 83 cr | 20% | Inaccurate | |
| All Is Well | Negative | 16 cr | 15 cr | 6% | Accurate | |
| Phantom | Mixed | 61 cr | 54 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Welcome Back | Mixed | 120 cr | 98 cr | 18% | Inaccurate | |
| Hero | Mixed | 38 cr | 34 cr | 10% | Accurate | |
| Katti Batti | Extremely Negative | 24 cr | 24 cr | 0% | Accurate | |
| Calendar Girls | Negative | 8 cr | 7.1 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Kis Kisko Pyaar Karu | Positive | 57 cr | 50 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| Talvar | Positive | 20 cr | 29 | 31% | Inaccurate | |
| Jazbaa | Mixed | 29 cr | 27 cr | 6% | Accurate | |
| Pyaar Ka Punchnama 2 | Positive | 35 cr | 61 cr | 42% | Inaccurate | |
| Shaandaar | Extremely Negative | 48 cr | 43 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Prem Ratan Dhan Payo | Mixed | 230 cr | 213 cr | 7% | Accurate | |
| Tamasha | Negative | 68 cr | 69 cr | 0% | Accurate | |
| Dilwale | 145 cr | 148 cr | 2% | Accurate | ||
| Bajirao Mastani | 168 cr | 187 cr | 10% | Accurate | ||
After seeing disatrous collections of varunwale all the srk fans are giving excuses like clash, protests and blah.. blah..
In reality the protests of Bhakts help varunwale big time by giving lots of free publicity & sympathy.
Without the Bhakts’ protest varunwale would not have collected even 60cr in weekend & 10cr on Monday…
Rong prediction indicine….dilwale–155cr and bajiraw mastani—125+
If bm released alone then it’s not gonna be touch 100 crore bm gets advantage of free publicity of Srk like SOS did, they get the advantage of protest against SRK and negativity spread by all other actor’s fan! What they expect from a mass entertainer movie a critics movie??? No they were just try to pull down king Khan but shahrukh rules the overseas box office by huge margins after lack of screens half of prdp and make 21 crore day 1 and also take lead in India!! Bm called a classic just bcoz of haters publicity Bcz it’s not a warrior story nor love story nor be a historical movie or not a entertaining Its a total mess & earlier a site (BOI) mentioned in it’s article that bhansali’s all movie except devdas which is appreciate everywhere only work bcoz of Maharashtra & gujrat unfortunately these are strong territory for business and his movie is like regional movie but due to clash with srk now BM will get benefit of awareness other part of country too otherwise we already see what tamasa did previous
After Dilwale debacle its clear now Mr srk is nothing without Deepika. Even multistarcast & Rohit shetty can’t help him to survive!!!
Dilwale
Week 1 – 101cr
Week 2 – 56cr
Week 3 – 20cr
Others – 7cr
183cr
Bajirao Mastani
Week 1 – 82cr
Week 2 – 59cr
Week 3 – 25cr
Others – 8cr
– 174cr
Kya Kool Hain Hum will collect 48cr while Airlift will make 71cr
So according to this Prediction , the total combined collection of both the films is less than Bajrangi Bhaijaan !!! Damn , Ouch .
@Indicine, why do you need to wait for overseas collections for (only) Dilwale? Isn’t it what you and every trade analyst say a film’s verdict is based on its DOMESTIC collections??? Why special method for SRK film?
And why are you being so harsh to @Ultron Salmaniac??? I know he is anti-SRK. But it doesnt mean you have to ve so harsh.
When have you been so harsh to an SRK fan? Dont they rant against you when you post Salman or so? Are SRK fans sane?
Why should anybody call you SRKCine unless he/she has the feeling for you being biased towards SRK? If you have spotted, they are not only Salman fans but other actors’ fans too call you so.
However, you should gracefully respond to them or ignore them. You should not get nervous just because somebody calls your sponsor is SRK. You are a full-fledeged professional website now.
I’ve been following you and BOI since Wanted release in 2009. You were just a small website. You have achieved much success in these years. One of the major reasons to that is ‘Comment Section.’ So, the commentators matter.
Let us know if you don’t want us, Salman fans, to visit your site. We will gracefully say Good Bye.
As we depart, at least try to give equal Ajay, Akki and Aamir as well.
I am not lecturing you but telling my feelings out of my years of experiences on your website.
So, one piece of advice: learn how to manage success. If you become arrogant and take success into your head like Vivek or Ranbir, you will fail.
Having said that, I too will ask you how SRK happened to make a tweet attaching a link of your website (i.e. link to the first day BO reports of Dilwale)? What’s your connection with him?
I am looking forward to your answer. Whether or not, you answer me as you hardly answer to my good questions but only troll me back when I post some troling comments; or if you post this comment or not; Thanks to you!
@Shobitt at 6:38PM Dec 22
You and your comments rock dude! You have nailed perfectly on the heads of SRKians. A full-mark comment.
Keep rocking!
Wonder if Aamir/ Salman have guts to star in film like Dilwale and do clash with big film and face bans. They wud be crying all now and their movie wud have crashed, Dilwale is still performing well in SS.
Top 5 highest grossers of the year will be…
1. Bajrangi Bhaijaan.
2. PRDP.
3. Bajirao mastani.
4. TWMR
5. Dilwale
#maratha warrior beats wankhede villain.
srk fans are using illogical logics that srk is Global Star bcz Dilwale beats Star wars in UAE but they don’t know one thing that their global star lost to a Boy (Ranveer Singh) in North America….
dr srk fans dnt expect anything from xmas holliday for dilwale.star wars is coming next friday and it will thrash dilwale in multiplexes
Thanks Indicine for the very good article. Every time your predictions were correct except Salman movies. Dilwale is bad film and SRK is not a biggest super star. SRK is media’s person. He ratings are below to hritik, forget Aamir or Salman.
Hats off to the sensible indian audience who now knows which film to give the priority and make it a win. I always knows good film wins not like crap films like HNY and Diljale Dilwale.
@nadia ??on behalf frm indicine i would like to answer ur question yes offcourse dilwale has a chance to rebounce back only in next birth ??
Ha ha ha. Seriously? Boyzone u are a bad guy. Thumbs up to u. Bouncing back for Dilwale is in the next life.
This proves that Only one and only megastar aamir khan rules. Christmas is nothing without him. It was him who made Christmas the most ludicrous period. No one has given as big blockbusters as ultimate megastar aamir khan has given. No one comes close to him. Those 2 overrated and overhuped khans released their dabba crap movies on Christmas I.e. Don, dabba 2 and now flopwaale, and result all underperformed. While megastar’s all movies on Christmas have become ATBBs and ATHGs and even offbeat TZP despite facing clash with commercial multi starrer movie welcome still became blockbuster. That’s the power of real megastar of Bollywood aamir khan. No one can come close to him.
Sad to see that the undisputed queen of clashes will become a defeated maid by clashing with samll star’s film at the box office. :(
@Timyman 12:59 am, cry baby cry. I am loving your frustration.
Let’s just say for argument sake that Dilwale did manage to earn even 10 crore more than BM. Do you think you can measure it’s success by its box office numbers. I don’t think so because even so many SRK fans express disappointment about the film. This tells me whereas many of them might have gone to see the film more than once is now not prepared to spend money on seeing it a second time which is what the wom is coming across. This tells me that the no collection is not the prerequisite for its success but it’s failure.
My niece who came in from London a couple days ago never misses an SRK movies but she has express her disappointment and dissatisfaction at SRK because since 2009 none of his films were that enjoyable. She said that many of his fans have continued to go watch his films but the feeling now is that they won’t in the future and it is obvious that Salman and Aamir will be the ones that many folks will now be following. For her having seen most of Salman and Aamir films she finally agrees with me that in their films you see a lot of what their true characters are like. No ego or overacting
She also said that Ranveer blew her and the audiences away with his character in BM.
There is a lesson to be learned do not presume or assume one can predict the future. Only God can not even the devil, his angels or man can accurately predict what the future holds.
Why are you SRK fans bashing indicine because things did not go your way and in your disappointment you are lashing out at them, they are doing their best.
Just admit that another one bites the dust.
Being srk’s fan , it is disappointing to see such result, but hoping that dilwale could at least be a hit. I watched it last week, it wasn’t that good nor it was that bad, it just doesn’t meet the expectation. Hopefully he will come back stronger, both with content and box office result.
dilwale-160-170 crore
bm-120-130 crore
From Thursday onwards it ll be dilwale…
I m having a feeling tht ppl r bored of watching same masala movies.So ppl hv started rejecting such movies.E.g : HNY,PRDP,DILWALE,JAI HO!Audience want something new something unique!!!E.g : Vicky Donor no film was made on the concept of a sperm donor.The film gt hit status.Another e.g is DLKH.Achieved hit status with zero promotions.
So by now on content is the king 4 khans too!!!SRK has impressive films line – FAN,RAEES,ANAND .L. RAI’ S NXT!!!
I m having a feeling tht ppl r bored of watching same masala movies.So thy r rejecting such movies.E.g : HNY,PRDP,DILWALE,JAI HO!Audience want something new something unique!!!E.g : Vicky Donor no film was made on the concept of a sperm donor.The film gt hit status.Another e.g is DLKH.Achieved hit status with zero promotions.
So by now on content is the king 4 khans too!!!SRK has impressive films line – FAN,RAEES,ANAND .L. RAI’ S NXT!!!
@hrithik
I never said that SLB is going to be on roads,or BM will be another Sawariya.BM was his dream project with established actors.So expecting sawwariya was foolish thing.Actually BM performance is 10-15% above my expectation but Dilwale BO performance is a big letdown.I expected weekend of 80 cr with monday start from 14-15 cr but its dilwale that performed poorly not BM that performed extraordinary.
Bajrangi bhaijaan ke time bhaubali ka first week ka collection 45cr tha uske bad usne bb release hon ke bad 70 cr or kamaye fir darshyam movie ne 80 cr kamaye.iska matlab bb release hone k bad bhi indian box off-ice pe 150-160cr ka business hua fir bhi bb ne 321cr ka collection kr lia to iss time tum srkians clash ka excuse kyu de rahe ho…srk is low popularity terms of salman. Dilwale ke waqt itne holiday bhi h jabki bb ke time sirf eid ka holiday tha.agar itne holuday hote toh akshay bhi 200cr kr leta or haklu srk ke 150 ke bhi lale pd rahe h
So this year belongs to salman khan that’s prove who is biggest superstar. Prdp : 213cr super hit
Bb : 321cr atbb
Hatters just chill…
@ nadia here as well all Dubai, UAE loves him as the film opened by storm and making history ; hope coming days definitely will be the positive sides & bouncing back in the domestic circuit, we’ll not let down our IDOL.
After rocking in the kolkata & stardust awards the positive response all over definitely the film will be going to rock next weekend. Be happy.
salman ke fans se panga , Akshay dooba
ranbeer kapoor dooba ab srgay ki baari