Sultan Box Office Prediction

Sultan is the first festive release of the year and it’ll be Salman Khan who returns once again with a film that has something in it for every section of the audience.

The first half of the year has had a couple of 100 crore grossers (Airlift and Housefull 3), but it was the Hollywood film ‘The Jungle Book’ that remains the biggest money spinner of the year so far.

The second half of the year has bigger films lined up for release and we begin with arguably the biggest. The Eid weekend has been phenomenal over the years and Salman has dominated it every year since 2009, barring the year 2013 when he didn’t have a release.

2016 is expected to continue the trend and give the industry one of its biggest opening days and possibly one of its highest grossers.

Check out the opening day comparison of Eid releases in the last few years:

• 2010: Dabangg (1800 screens) - 14.5 crore
• 2011: Bodyguard (2250 screens) - 21 crore (45% growth, holiday)
• 2012: Ek Tha Tiger (3300 screens) - 32.9 crore (56% growth, holiday)
• 2013: Chennai Express (3700 screens) - 33.12 crore (0.7% growth, holiday)
• 2014: Kick (4000 screens) – 26.52 crore (20% drop. Pre Eid, non-holiday)
• 2015: Bajrangi Bhaijaan (4000 screens) - 27.25 crore (3% growth, Pre Eid, non-holiday)

Kick and Bajrangi Bhaijaan released on a working day, during Ramadan, when majority of muslim audience don’t watch films in theatres. Sultan will be a little different, because it’ll be a partial holiday in a few states tomorrow and business will also grow evening onwards on Wednesday – because Thursday is a national holiday. So the advantage that Sultan carries, should be similar to FAN which released on Ram Navami earlier this year.

We put the advantage of a partial holiday at around 20%, while film business tends to pick up by 35-40% for big films on national holidays.

The biggest non-holiday opening till date is the Rs 36.22 crore total (including all versions) of Dhoom 3 in 2013.

IndicineFBO (opening day prediction): We expect Sultan to collect Rs 38.5 crore on Day 1. The huge response to the advance booking, along with the fact that nights shows are expected to pick up, should ensure a record-breaking total for Sultan on its first day. If the word-of-mouth is good, Thursday could be bigger than Wednesday.

Check out the detailed box office predictions of Sultan

IF EXCELLENT (extremely positive word-of-mouth, universal acclaim, Bajrangi Bhaijaan level)

• Day 1 - 38 cr
• Day 2 - 43 cr
• Day 3 - 26 cr
• 5-day weekend - 160 cr
• First Week (7 days) - 190 cr
• Final – 350 crore plus (All Time Blockbuster)

IF Good (positive word-of-mouth, like Kick)

• Day 1 - 38 cr
• Day 2 – 42 cr
• Day 3 – 24 cr
• 5-day weekend – 155 cr
• First Week (7 days) – 180 cr
• Final – 250 crore plus (Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

• Day 1 - 38 cr
• Day 2 - 40 cr
• Day 3 - 22 cr
• Weekend - 145 cr
• First Week - 165 cr
• Final - 210 crore (Super Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

• Day 1 - 37 cr
• Day 2 - 34 cr
• Day 3 - 17 cr
• Weekend - 115 cr
• First Week - 130 cr
• Lifetime - 150 cr (Average / Semi Hit)

Some other points:

• Sultan Screen count : 4100 screens
• Sultan Advance Booking: Outstanding.
• Sultan Budget - 90 crore
• Runtime: 2 hours 50 minutes
• Releasing on partial holiday, second day is national holiday for Eid.
• No competition from major films for 2 weeks. Unlike Bajrangi Bhaijaan, which was competing against Baahubali, there are no holdover releases that are performing.