Sultan is the first festive release of the year and it’ll be Salman Khan who returns once again with a film that has something in it for every section of the audience.
The first half of the year has had a couple of 100 crore grossers (Airlift and Housefull 3), but it was the Hollywood film ‘The Jungle Book’ that remains the biggest money spinner of the year so far.
The second half of the year has bigger films lined up for release and we begin with arguably the biggest. The Eid weekend has been phenomenal over the years and Salman has dominated it every year since 2009, barring the year 2013 when he didn’t have a release.
2016 is expected to continue the trend and give the industry one of its biggest opening days and possibly one of its highest grossers.
Check out the opening day comparison of Eid releases in the last few years:
- 2010: Dabangg (1800 screens) - 14.5 crore
- 2011: Bodyguard (2250 screens) - 21 crore (45% growth, holiday)
- 2012: Ek Tha Tiger (3300 screens) - 32.9 crore (56% growth, holiday)
- 2013: Chennai Express (3700 screens) - 33.12 crore (0.7% growth, holiday)
- 2014: Kick (4000 screens) – 26.52 crore (20% drop. Pre Eid, non-holiday)
- 2015: Bajrangi Bhaijaan (4000 screens) - 27.25 crore (3% growth, Pre Eid, non-holiday)
Kick and Bajrangi Bhaijaan released on a working day, during Ramadan, when majority of muslim audience don’t watch films in theatres. Sultan will be a little different, because it’ll be a partial holiday in a few states tomorrow and business will also grow evening onwards on Wednesday – because Thursday is a national holiday. So the advantage that Sultan carries, should be similar to FAN which released on Ram Navami earlier this year.
We put the advantage of a partial holiday at around 20%, while film business tends to pick up by 35-40% for big films on national holidays.
The biggest non-holiday opening till date is the Rs 36.22 crore total (including all versions) of Dhoom 3 in 2013.
IndicineFBO (opening day prediction): We expect Sultan to collect Rs 38.5 crore on Day 1. The huge response to the advance booking, along with the fact that nights shows are expected to pick up, should ensure a record-breaking total for Sultan on its first day. If the word-of-mouth is good, Thursday could be bigger than Wednesday.
Check out the detailed box office predictions of Sultan
IF EXCELLENT (extremely positive word-of-mouth, universal acclaim, Bajrangi Bhaijaan level)
- Day 1 - 38 cr
- Day 2 - 43 cr
- Day 3 - 26 cr
- 5-day weekend - 160 cr
- First Week (7 days) - 190 cr
- Final – 350 crore plus (All Time Blockbuster)
IF Good (positive word-of-mouth, like Kick)
- Day 1 - 38 cr
- Day 2 – 42 cr
- Day 3 – 24 cr
- 5-day weekend – 155 cr
- First Week (7 days) – 180 cr
- Final – 250 crore plus (Blockbuster)
IF AVERAGE (mixed response)
- Day 1 - 38 cr
- Day 2 - 40 cr
- Day 3 - 22 cr
- Weekend - 145 cr
- First Week - 165 cr
- Final - 210 crore (Super Hit)
IF BAD (worst case scenario)
- Day 1 - 37 cr
- Day 2 - 34 cr
- Day 3 - 17 cr
- Weekend - 115 cr
- First Week - 130 cr
- Lifetime - 150 cr (Average / Semi Hit)
Some other points:
- Sultan Screen count : 4100 screens
- Sultan Advance Booking: Outstanding.
- Sultan Budget - 90 crore
- Runtime: 2 hours 50 minutes
- Releasing on partial holiday, second day is national holiday for Eid.
- No competition from major films for 2 weeks. Unlike Bajrangi Bhaijaan, which was competing against Baahubali, there are no holdover releases that are performing.
God of cinema returns tomorrow. Salman brings happiness.
I am a big Salman fan but I want sultan to flop. I want only good cinema to succeed in my country.
On Ramnavami, only one or two states declared a holiday and rest all government/private offices remained functional.
On the other hand, only for central government employees (that too only in Delhi) , Eid holiday is on Thursday. For rest (including the private and IT sector) , holiday is on Wednesday.
And you are comparing it with Ramnavami holiday @indicine ?
Literally disappointed with your way of reporting. Even a six years kid can conclude that which holiday is bigger among these two.
Sultan looks like another jai Ho,honestly saying this.Everyone knows I’m a huge Salman fan.
Not interested. This year only mohenjodaro.
My prediction of Bollywood movies 2016(in Bracket opening day collection)(expected audience review)
Airlift 128* (positive)
Neerja 73* (positive)
Deadpool 33*(positive)
Jai gangajal 34 (6.2)* (mixed to negative)
Kapoor and Sons 73(7.55)*(positive)
Rocky handsome 24.5 (5.85)*(mixed to negative)
BvS 47*(mixed to negative)
Ki and Ka 50(6)*(mixed)
Jungle book 135cr(8)(highly positive)
Fan 90cr(20.5)*(mixed)
Baaghi 78(8.5)*(mixed)
Azhar 34(6.5)(mixed to Positive)*
Captain America 3 72cr*
Sarabjit 20 (4.2)(Positive)*
Xmen 36cr*
Houseful 3 105*cr(21)(mixed)
Conjuring 2 55*(4.5)(positive)
Udtha Punjab 69*(opening not predicted)(Positive)
Finding dory 12*cr(4cr)(Positive)
Independence Day 2 30*cr(4.65cr)
Tarzan 8*cr(Mixed)
#SULTHAN 260(37cr)(expecting a mixed word of mouth, if positive then it can collect 350 cr plus)
Great Grand Masti 93cr(14.5)(review doesnt matter!!!!)
Dishoom 67(10.5)(mixed to negative/Negative)
Jagga jasoos 60(6)(mixed to positive!!!!!!!!!)(Postponed)
#RUSTOM vs MD
Rustom 75cr(10.50cr)(Positive)
Mohenjodaro 167(Positive)(currently 18.5 but hopes it will create buzz after upcoming promos.So 20.5)
A Flying Jatt 86(13cr)(mixed)
Akira 23cr(3.5cr)(mixed)
Baar baar dekho 37(5.8)(mixed)
Raaz Reboot 78(11)(mixed to positive)
Dhoni 85cr(11cr)(Positive)
Rangoon 74(8.2)(positive)(postponed)
Commando 2 27cr(4)(mixed)
#Shivaay vs ADHM(Expected total collection 285cr(Positive),Opening 30cr(Pre Diwali)
Shivaay 150(16cr- Pre Diwali)(expecting mixed to positive review .if positive then it can collect 180cr )
ADHM 135(14)(expecting positive review, if mixed then below 100cr)
Rock on 2 47 (6)(mixed to positive)
Dear Zindagi 75cr(10cr)( Positive)
Force 2 35(5)(mixed)
Befikre 126(16.5cr)(positive)
#Dangal(expecting highly positive reviews)320(26cr opening on a normal day)
Yay!! It’s definitely going to be ATBB. Anything above 300crs will be gold ? First day morning show booked ;) #Bangalore
i predict 45 crores
Crap film. Maha crap . Flop. I guarantee that.
i can see the future and i see a 45 crore opening
For FAN, I had sponsored the tickets of my entire Team and we all had to put half day leave since that day was not a holiday for us (and for many others belonging from government and private sectors).
On the other hand, tomorrow there is a holiday for all major IT firms and majority of government/private offices.
But for you, Eid holiday is comparable with Ramnavami holiday (which merely gets celebrated in 2 or 3 states).
Hats off to you.
@indicine.. Right.
In concern with advance booking response may be sultan will cross 40cr mark.. Just Awesome.
so SULTAN will beat dhoom 3 non holiday opening record
Sultan sureshoot turn flop hope Ali abbas Jafar direction & factory of flop film YRF don’t disappoint me
Sardaar JI 2 is a blockbuster in Punjab, it might affect Sultan as the rural family audiences here does not watch Hindi movies due to kissing and bikini scenes even in ‘U’ rated movies and they have a second choice. Still I think it will do between 38-42 crores on first day, lifetime will depend on WOM
i wouldnt agree with you more indicine… mine was 37… but i will go further and predict this movie wont cross 200.. because of sports gener…no films of this gener has became blockbuster .. some superhits like CDI AND JJWS.. ITS difficult to connect with this sports gener and that too wrestling and boxing… lets see what happens..
good luck salman fans and sultan team..
According to #indicine’s prediction SULTAN is going to be the biggest non holiday opener till date despite being a pre Eid release!
##MEGASTARDOM!!!
On Ramnavmi holiday (hell it’s not even a holiday) , non-actor khan can’t cross even 25 CR mark, that even you know.
So if Eid holiday was comparable with Ramnavmi holiday, you would not have put this 38 CR prediction.
We have seen his position on Eid. Kick, BB etc all opened below 30 CR.
if it will cross 500 Cr then it will be a Extraordinary film
warna
POWER OF EDX (Eid.Diwali.Xmas) holidays
Not Salman Khan
INDICINE TERE MUH MEIN GHEE LADOOO
@Indicine. According to u, which film was better opener? CE or ETT ?
according to me ETT bcz – less no. of screen than CE, less ticket price, it was released on National Holiday but still that period was pre Eid, I mean in Ramadan…
& What if it (ETT) was released on EID holiday just like CE ? how much it would have collected ?
Very good prediction
1st day 1st show saare record todne wale hain
If SULTAN can collect 38.5cr on opening day without the use of any Laal mirch/k3 calculator that will be really humongous!!!
@Indicine. According to u, which film was better opener? CE or ETT ?
according to me ETT bcz – less no. of screen than CE, less ticket price, it was released on National Holiday but still that period was pre Eid, I mean in Ramadan…
& What if it (ETT) was released on EID holiday just like CE ? how much it would have collected ?..
Any thing less than 55 cr Is dissapointed…
My old prediction – 21 cr
But Now my prediction incensed to 30 cr with the help of Heavy promotion of King khan ‘s Name…
#Fasal kerala
Wow @indicine,you’re now comparing it with RAM NAVAMI now?????even RAM NAVAMI was not a national holiday which 6th July is.
I’m just seeing your excuses from day 1—-FAN is not a niche movie but sultan is not out-of-out masala film even though it contains item songs with every thing that FAN never had.and after that now biggest excuse is you’re comparing completely holiday like 6TH JULY with partial holiday RAN NAVAMY.
And also don’t forget 6TH JULY is WORLD FAMOUS RATH YATRA/CAR FESTIVAL.how didn’t you included that?????
Try as much as you can KING SRK WILL REMAIN KING.And remember phultan will be crap like prdp it can’t be another bb.
Seems spot on. CE did 28-29 crore on partial holiday (+ night shows advantage), so 38 crore is pretty much possible for Sultan given the advance booking report.
40+ crore…I can write in my blood
/*
So the advantage that Sultan carries, should be similar to FAN which released on Ram Navami earlier this year.
*/
This particular line has vanished all my respect for you and your website. I’m sorry to say that but it’s a shameless attempt to please a certain section of readers.
The credibility which I was a fan of, is slowly deteriorating and in fact, you seem to be more worried about the commercial aspects of your website rather doing honest reporting.
If you have even 1% of accountability, then prove how Ramnavmi is comparable to July 6 holiday , though I can give you 10 reasons why it is not comparable.