Dilwale Hit or Flop: Box Office Prediction

Shah Rukh Khan returns a year and two months after Happy New Year, with one of the biggest films of his career. Dilwale has a hugely popular star cast, immensely successful director in Rohit Shetty and the film has been made on a lavish budget.

More often than not, a commercial mass entertainer like Dilwale starring a superstar in the lead, guarantees a big grosser at the box office. But the release of Bajirao Mastani on the same day and the response that film gets, will eventually make a big difference to the lifetime collections of Dilwale.

The odds are in favour of Dilwale, because Bajirao Mastani would have to be a great film if it has to challenge the SRK starrer in the long run. The scenario was similar when Bhansali’s Saawariya released on the same day as Om Shanti Om. The fate of Saawariya was sealed on the first day itself and Om Shanti Om went on to be a box office blockbuster.

OSO wasn’t a great film, it was nothing more than a ‘timepass’ entertainer, but the advantage for films like Dilwale is that they don’t have to be extraordinary films to be successful. As long as the word-of-mouth is not negative, it’ll be advantage Dilwale.

Dilwale Business Economics

  • Total Costs: ₹ 145 crore (i.e Cost of Production ₹ 90 crore + Marketing ₹ 25 crore + producer Shah Rukh Khan’s acting fee assumed to be 30 crore)
  • Recovery from Satellite rights: ₹ 60 crore
  • Recovery from various other rights: ₹ 25 crore
  • Total recovery from non-theatrical: ₹ 85 crore
  • Total amount to be recover from theatrical revenue (India and Overseas): ₹ 60 crore

Since Shah Rukh Khan is the producer of Dilwale, the makers of the film have already recovered a huge chunk of their investment. It’ll be about delivering a big grosser, taking the lead against Bajirao Mastani and living upto trade expectations.

Advance Booking: The response has been terrific. Ticket sales for Day 1 is in the Rs 9-10 crore range, say trade sources. For the weekend, ticket sales have crossed the 15 crore mark.

Screen count: There isn’t too much clarity on the screen count yet, because theatres haven’t yet been completely finalised. Court cases, dispute over show ratio at multiplexes.. have also delayed and affected the advance booking. One of many reasons why two films should never clash on the same day. It was thought to be a good thing for the exhibitors, but looking at the hassles, even they would prefer solo releases for big films. A Bang Bang vs Haider isn’t a problem, but when two films that need 3000 plus screens each and have budgets of 100 crore plus, it’s a war for screens and getting the best shows at multiplexes. The expected screen count of Dilwale is around the 3000 – 3100 range.

IndicineFBO: We expect Dilwale to collect Rs 25.2 crore on its opening day at the box office. If the collections are in this range, it’ll be humongous for Dilwale because it would be achieving a number similar to Bang Bang (holiday) and Kick (solo release). We have got most FBO predictions right this year, fingers crossed for the last two films of the year.

Check out the detailed box office predictions of Dilwale

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

  • Day 1 – 25 cr
  • Day 2 – 26 cr
  • Day 3 – 28 cr
  • Weekend – 79 cr
  • First Week – 135 cr
  • Final – 230 cr+ (Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

  • Day 1 – 25 cr
  • Day 2 – 26 cr
  • Day 3 – 27 cr
  • Weekend – 78 cr
  • First Week – 130 cr
  • Final – 190 cr + (Hit / Super Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

  • Day 1 – 24 cr
  • Day 2 – 23 cr
  • Day 3 – 24 cr
  • Weekend – 71 cr
  • First Week – 105 cr
  • Lifetime – 150 cr (Above Average / Hit)

Note: Verdict would also depend on how Dilwale performs overseas.

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180 Comments

  • Dilwale has all ingredients to become one of the biggest hit of srk career !!!!!
    Dilwale has the potential to cross 250 crore ( positive wom )
    I pray that dilwale makes srk and his die-hard fans 100 times happy …… !!!!!

  • I want to see slb and eros in the most regrettable situation..
    they ruined our dream
    may Allah ruin their dream project !!!!

  • Watching Bajirao Mastani tomorrow and also booked tickets for Dilwale.Will be watching dilwale on saturday.
    Expecting huge day tomorrow for both films..

    Acc. to me
    Dilwale – 22.5crs

    BM-11

    Lets see

  • As I say it was still an impossible task for this film to earn 200cr my prediction is in between 175cr-200cr(hit) not more than that and if the have word of mouth like HNY(negative) then even 170cr is looking tough !!!!!

  • how can you change 1st day collection because in any case 1st day collevtion never depends upon word of mouth totally misleading …man this is your wrost prediction mark my words everyone is saying movie will remain in housefull condition for 2 weeks awesome entertainer

  • this is already circulating on social media that bajirao mastani is a masterpiece… Mughal e azam after 55 years…now only going to see bajirao mastani…already wasted a lot on srk movies…cant do more

  • Dilwale budget 145 cr …nd earn 230 cr it is block buster …!! I think 250 cr ..+ then its called blockbuster..!! Any way dilwale do 195 cr life time if movie good word of mouth bcuz of bajirao mastani if mixed word of mouth 175 if bad 165 ..!! Best of luck..!!

  • My Dilwale prediction :

    Opening day : 22-26 CR
    Opening weekend : 75-85 CR

    Lifetime :

    Best case scenario : 225-235 CR
    Ideal case scenario : 205-215 CR
    Worst case scenario : 185-195 CR

    Anything below 185 CR will be a disappointment for me. At the same time, anything above 235 CR will be a bonus.

    Also, Dilwale is set to create few new records with CLASH.
    Currently, these records are held by Hrithik’s Bang Bang, if I’m not wrong.
    Though Dilwale’s opponent is not as weak as Haider, still I believe it will own the records of lifetime and opening weekend (with CLASH).

    This is my first and final prediction.
    Fingers crossed.

  • Breaking Pk record for Dilwale is difficult due to clash but not impossible Dont undererestimate rohit shetty…he knows how to bring audience to
    theatres and entertain them

  • The only movie which had the most possible ingredient to beat pk’s record is dilwale.
    but due to bm and star wars it will find very tough … especially star wars damn it !!

  • Bajirao Mastani will take good opening in Pune , Mumbai & Nashik . After Shivaji Maharaj he is best warrior in Maharashtra he never lost any battle .

  • Now as the disastrous collections start pouring in, the collections will be increased and budget will be decreased. Remember Ra.1, the 150 crore film that hardly made 110 crore.

  • Only 3000 screens? Disappointing.. In one of the multiplex in my area I was shocked to see that Dilwale has got 14 shows whereas Bajirao Mastani got 16 shows..Blocking screens with Bajrangi bhaijaan was a master stroke by Eros but nevertheless the advance for Dilwale was way better and even with less no. of shows it will collect more..25 crore will be outstanding but I am more interested in whether a single day crosses 30 crore or not.
    All the best team Dilwale.

  • Perfect and balanced predictions indicine.
    Just one thing I wanted to add.
    When PRDP released, we kept on asking you to add Salman’s fee to the budget, but you didn’t add.
    And now you added SRK’s fee to the budget.
    That’s a bit unfair. Rest all is perfect.

  • Hearing mixed reviews all over from gulf. Reviews vary from average to bad. Otherside bajirao mastani is getting extremely positive reviews. Tough time for dilwale.

  • Guys just seen interview on cnn ibn where journalist asked srk what are the reasons you think salman and amir are so ahead of you in terms of popularity and box office numbers and for some reasons you are not being able to chase them and you are doing same kind of movies since ddlj and to make things more awkward for him varun kajol kriti were also accompanying him and he was so embarrased and just could not justify it it was so funny i want to reward that journalist for asking truth

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