Dilwale Hit or Flop: Box Office Prediction

Shah Rukh Khan returns a year and two months after Happy New Year, with one of the biggest films of his career. Dilwale has a hugely popular star cast, immensely successful director in Rohit Shetty and the film has been made on a lavish budget.

More often than not, a commercial mass entertainer like Dilwale starring a superstar in the lead, guarantees a big grosser at the box office. But the release of Bajirao Mastani on the same day and the response that film gets, will eventually make a big difference to the lifetime collections of Dilwale.

The odds are in favour of Dilwale, because Bajirao Mastani would have to be a great film if it has to challenge the SRK starrer in the long run. The scenario was similar when Bhansali’s Saawariya released on the same day as Om Shanti Om. The fate of Saawariya was sealed on the first day itself and Om Shanti Om went on to be a box office blockbuster.

OSO wasn’t a great film, it was nothing more than a ‘timepass’ entertainer, but the advantage for films like Dilwale is that they don’t have to be extraordinary films to be successful. As long as the word-of-mouth is not negative, it’ll be advantage Dilwale.

Dilwale Business Economics

• Total Costs: ? 145 crore (i.e Cost of Production ? 90 crore + Marketing ? 25 crore + producer Shah Rukh Khan’s acting fee assumed to be 30 crore)
• Recovery from Satellite rights: ? 60 crore
• Recovery from various other rights: ? 25 crore
• Total recovery from non-theatrical: ? 85 crore
• Total amount to be recover from theatrical revenue (India and Overseas): ? 60 crore

Since Shah Rukh Khan is the producer of Dilwale, the makers of the film have already recovered a huge chunk of their investment. It’ll be about delivering a big grosser, taking the lead against Bajirao Mastani and living upto trade expectations.

Advance Booking: The response has been terrific. Ticket sales for Day 1 is in the Rs 9-10 crore range, say trade sources. For the weekend, ticket sales have crossed the 15 crore mark.

Screen count: There isn’t too much clarity on the screen count yet, because theatres haven’t yet been completely finalised. Court cases, dispute over show ratio at multiplexes.. have also delayed and affected the advance booking. One of many reasons why two films should never clash on the same day. It was thought to be a good thing for the exhibitors, but looking at the hassles, even they would prefer solo releases for big films. A Bang Bang vs Haider isn’t a problem, but when two films that need 3000 plus screens each and have budgets of 100 crore plus, it’s a war for screens and getting the best shows at multiplexes. The expected screen count of Dilwale is around the 3000 – 3100 range.

IndicineFBO: We expect Dilwale to collect Rs 25.2 crore on its opening day at the box office. If the collections are in this range, it’ll be humongous for Dilwale because it would be achieving a number similar to Bang Bang (holiday) and Kick (solo release). We have got most FBO predictions right this year, fingers crossed for the last two films of the year.

Check out the detailed box office predictions of Dilwale

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

• Day 1 - 25 cr
• Day 2 - 26 cr
• Day 3 - 28 cr
• Weekend - 79 cr
• First Week – 135 cr
• Final – 230 cr+ (Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

• Day 1 – 25 cr
• Day 2 - 26 cr
• Day 3 – 27 cr
• Weekend - 78 cr
• First Week - 130 cr
• Final - 190 cr + (Hit / Super Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

• Day 1 – 24 cr
• Day 2 - 23 cr
• Day 3 - 24 cr
• Weekend – 71 cr
• First Week - 105 cr
• Lifetime - 150 cr (Above Average / Hit)

Note: Verdict would also depend on how Dilwale performs overseas.