Bajirao Mastani Hit or Flop: Box Office Prediction

On November 9 2007, Sanjay Leela Bhansali launched two star kids in a film titled Saawariya and released it against a Shah Rukh Khan entertainer. The results were disastrous, SRK had said he would destroy Saawariya and he did.

Bhansali was mocked for releasing a ‘blue’ film even at award functions that year and Ranbir – Sonam got the worst possible starts to their career. There were lessons to be learnt from the clash, not just for Bhansali but for others as well. One, be careful before deciding to release your film against a big superstar. Two, avoid taking on a film that is more audience friendly, more so when your film doesn’t belong to the popular genre. Three, hold trial shows, check the response and never clash if the film hasn’t shaped up as well as it should have.

Fast forward to 2015 and we have the exact same scenario. Bajirao Mastani has a more experience team with a established female lead, but genre and star cast wise, Bajirao Mastani simply cannot match upto Dilwale.

So the big question is, why then would the veteran filmmaker risk his 15-year-long dream, Bajirao Mastani, against yet another Shah Rukh Khan film? From Bhansali’s point of view, there can only be one sane reason and that would be confidence in the film that he has made. Because if Bajirao Mastani doesn’t turn out to be a well-made film, the costs are so high, that the fate of the film could be worse than Saawariya.

We don’t mean to be negative or harsh towards Bajirao Mastani here, but a film made on a budget and scale as big as this, deserves a solo release. It’s unfortunate that it has to go against a film like Dilwale.

Moving on to the more positive side of this, what’s amazing about box office is its unpredictability. If Bajirao Mastani strikes a chord with the audience and manages to find appreciation, it could go on to be a huge grosser. If a dubbed film like Baahubali could grow inspite of competition from an acclaimed film like Bajrangi Bhaijaan, then Bajirao Mastani could too. The power of word of mouth publicity is incredible, and if the film carries the must-experience-on-big-screen kind of publicity, then it could go on to be a huge success. There is also that possibility that Dilwale might turn out to be a bad film, which would significantly increase the chances of Bajirao Mastani succeeding.

Advance Booking: The response has been good at places, especially in Maharashtra, but poor at others. Due to the delayed listing at multiplexes and dispute at single screens, most centres didn’t open advance booking even till late Thursday evening.

Screen count: There isn’t too much clarity on the screen count yet, but the expected screen count of Bajirao Mastani is around the 2000 screens.

IndicineFBO: We expect Bajirao Mastani to collect Rs 11.5 crore on its opening day at the box office.

Check out the detailed box office predictions of Bajirao Mastani

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

  • Day 1 – 11.5 cr
  • Day 2 – 13 cr
  • Day 3 – 15 cr
  • Weekend – 40 cr
  • First Week – 70 cr
  • Final – 120 cr+ (Hit or more)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

  • Day 1 – 11 cr
  • Day 2 – 12 cr
  • Day 3 – 13 cr
  • Weekend – 36 cr
  • First Week – 55 cr
  • Final – 80 cr + (Flop)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

  • Day 1 – 11 cr
  • Day 2 – 10 cr
  • Day 3 – 10 cr
  • Weekend – 31 cr
  • First Week – 43 cr
  • Lifetime – 55 cr (Disaster)

Note: Verdict would also depend on how Bajirao Mastani performs overseas.

In short, Bajirao Mastani has to be a good film to work.

Also Read: Business Economics of Bajirao Mastani

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69 Comments

  • BM Is getting only Average to good reviews
    But it needs super positive reviews.

    It will also be like Saawariya & Guzaarish.
    Good reviews & appreciation from only metro cities but & box office flop.

  • What hater prediction is this

    BAJIRAO = 125cr min in any cases

    Blockbuster on it’s way

    BAJIRAO —– Har Har Mahadev

  • Huge negative review r coming from gulf
    I heard that dilwale is worse than prdp even some calling it worse than hny lol.
    I predicted 180 cr for dilwale now it looks impossible….
    This type of reviews definitely help bajirao mastani…. Hope bm will turn out hit…

  • U have told all the negative sides…but let me tell u…dilwale wont cross 200 cr…may be it will make 199 cr but not 200

  • In the reviews in an average…
    Dilwale varies from 3 to 5 stars..
    BM varies from ,2.5 to 4.5 stars.
    I think both will be good films. But at the box office DILWALE is taking a good lead.
    My show is at 10:15 am tomorrow morning of DILWALE.
    WILL watch BM next week…

  • Absolute Rubbish.
    WOM is already coming one of the best of this year. Direction, performance story screenplay all is being praised. And not to forget if dilwale fails (and it will surely fail) BM screens will increase for 2nd and 3rd week and Dilwale will be washout.

    Also this movie is taking most awards home at award ceremonies next year. Wait and watch indicine.

  • i think indicines prediction of dilwale will be correct.because their prediction is on the basis of red chillies calculator while trade figure for dilwale will be in 20-21 crore range.

  • SLB will go to comma after this time last time he anyhow survived. It will be biggest disaster of all time max 21Cr lifetime wait and watch

  • My prediction for 1st day
    Dilwale – 25 cr
    Bajirao Mastani – 12 cr

    weekend
    Dilwale – 75 cr
    Bajirao Mastani – 42 cr

    lifetime
    Dilwale – 210 cr
    Bajirao Mastani – 120 cr

  • If Eros and slb released bm on some other dates , everyone would watch it !!!
    it would collect much much much more than it can collect with a clash ….!!
    people ruin their dream project becoz of a small ego and useless confidence !!!!!!
    worst of luck to slb
    we srk fans just wanted to see if dilwale can break pk’s record but u people ruined it ……. u will the see the consequences !!!

  • It hurts me when My favourite director SLB clashing against my favourite actor SRK.
    Its unfortunate.
    But Truth is BM going to be a flop against Blockbuster Dilwale.
    Wishing best of luck fr both.

  • I feel the article was harsh and biased…. It’s only the content that matters in the long run…. Sawariya was a poor movie… So it didn’t work… As simple as that… If bajirao mastani is a good movie… It will work no matter what…. Good wishes for both the movies… May the gud one win…

  • Deepikapadukone ka sara stardum kal nikal jayega. She is nowhere close to srk. She got two back to back 200Cr due to srk only. Hope she will not celebrate succes party like tamasha after bm boomed at bo.

  • Ranveer singh’s performance will blow everyone away . Mark my words …..!

    Opening day > 10.5

    Lifetime 100-125 ……!

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