On November 9 2007, Sanjay Leela Bhansali launched two star kids in a film titled Saawariya and released it against a Shah Rukh Khan entertainer. The results were disastrous, SRK had said he would destroy Saawariya and he did.
Bhansali was mocked for releasing a ‘blue’ film even at award functions that year and Ranbir – Sonam got the worst possible starts to their career. There were lessons to be learnt from the clash, not just for Bhansali but for others as well. One, be careful before deciding to release your film against a big superstar. Two, avoid taking on a film that is more audience friendly, more so when your film doesn’t belong to the popular genre. Three, hold trial shows, check the response and never clash if the film hasn’t shaped up as well as it should have.
Fast forward to 2015 and we have the exact same scenario. Bajirao Mastani has a more experience team with a established female lead, but genre and star cast wise, Bajirao Mastani simply cannot match upto Dilwale.
So the big question is, why then would the veteran filmmaker risk his 15-year-long dream, Bajirao Mastani, against yet another Shah Rukh Khan film? From Bhansali’s point of view, there can only be one sane reason and that would be confidence in the film that he has made. Because if Bajirao Mastani doesn’t turn out to be a well-made film, the costs are so high, that the fate of the film could be worse than Saawariya.
We don’t mean to be negative or harsh towards Bajirao Mastani here, but a film made on a budget and scale as big as this, deserves a solo release. It’s unfortunate that it has to go against a film like Dilwale.
Moving on to the more positive side of this, what’s amazing about box office is its unpredictability. If Bajirao Mastani strikes a chord with the audience and manages to find appreciation, it could go on to be a huge grosser. If a dubbed film like Baahubali could grow inspite of competition from an acclaimed film like Bajrangi Bhaijaan, then Bajirao Mastani could too. The power of word of mouth publicity is incredible, and if the film carries the must-experience-on-big-screen kind of publicity, then it could go on to be a huge success. There is also that possibility that Dilwale might turn out to be a bad film, which would significantly increase the chances of Bajirao Mastani succeeding.
Advance Booking: The response has been good at places, especially in Maharashtra, but poor at others. Due to the delayed listing at multiplexes and dispute at single screens, most centres didn’t open advance booking even till late Thursday evening.
Screen count: There isn’t too much clarity on the screen count yet, but the expected screen count of Bajirao Mastani is around the 2000 screens.
IndicineFBO: We expect Bajirao Mastani to collect Rs 11.5 crore on its opening day at the box office.
Check out the detailed box office predictions of Bajirao Mastani
IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)
- Day 1 – 11.5 cr
- Day 2 – 13 cr
- Day 3 – 15 cr
- Weekend – 40 cr
- First Week – 70 cr
- Final – 120 cr+ (Hit or more)
IF AVERAGE (mixed response)
- Day 1 – 11 cr
- Day 2 – 12 cr
- Day 3 – 13 cr
- Weekend – 36 cr
- First Week – 55 cr
- Final – 80 cr + (Flop)
IF BAD (worst case scenario)
- Day 1 – 11 cr
- Day 2 – 10 cr
- Day 3 – 10 cr
- Weekend – 31 cr
- First Week – 43 cr
- Lifetime – 55 cr (Disaster)
Note: Verdict would also depend on how Bajirao Mastani performs overseas.
In short, Bajirao Mastani has to be a good film to work.
Also Read: Business Economics of Bajirao Mastani
great artcle. you’re right this time. agree with your article.
@Indicine. Never knew the hit status depends on the star line up in a film
Bm budget of 125 CRORES needs 120 plus to be declared as hit
WHERE as Dilwale made at a budget of 115 CRORES needs 150 plus to cal it as an average grosser.
What’s this ??? Hypocrisy
Kindly answer Indicine. Seriously my belief in Ur site is fading with articles like these
My prediction
1st day
Dilwale – 25 cr
Bm – 10 cr
Weekend
Dilwale – 98 cr
Bm – 36 cr
1st week
Dilwale – 143 cr
Bm – 56 cr
Lifetime
Dilwale – 230 cr
Bm – 100 cr
Dear all indicine members & critics,
BM will be Flop at the Box Office…..
No Doubt—————————–
Very good indicine very good bajirav ko hit hone ke liye 120 cr chahiye aur dilwale ko 60 cr kya bat h agar setalight rights aur music right se movie hit hoti h to akshay kumar ki koi movie flop nahi h same cheej raone ke time par ki thi srk chilla raha tha meri movie 175 cr ki h sabse costly h jab movie pit gayi to movie 125 cr ki ho gayi aur satellite right aur music right aur overseas collection ka jod tod kar ke movie ko hit bol diya muje normal public m aj take aisa koi vanda nahi mila jisne raone ko hit bola ho sabi log raone ko ek flop movie ke taur par yad karte h tees mar khan ko apki sight valo ne flop movie ki tarah promote kiya tha aur ab use semi hit bol rahe ho lekin normal public to use flop hi manti h agar tmk srk ki movie hogi to shuru se hi movie ko hit ka tag mil jata tumhari sight ki aur se
Movie theatrical business se hit aur flop kahi jati h janab satalit music right aur overseas income to bonus ki tarah Jo sirf producer ke liye hote h distributters ke liye nahi yar kamal to tab ho jata h jab drishyam aur gabbar jaisi low budget movie ke liye hit ka tag 100 cr par diya jata h
@Aman you keep living in your fancy world and we live on the planet earth. Srk clearly said that aamir and Salman are better and way ahead of me. Weather you believe it or not, the truth is what he said. And only for dumb people like you, no one is bigger than srk, but in reality Aamir and Salman are way ahead of srk. I know it would be hard for psycho patient like you to accept, but truth id bitter and grapes are sour. Live with it or get lost.
Totally disagree with this Nostradamus diagnosis
Come on Maratha Peshwa.
god knows