Bajirao Mastani Hit or Flop: Box Office Prediction

On November 9 2007, Sanjay Leela Bhansali launched two star kids in a film titled Saawariya and released it against a Shah Rukh Khan entertainer. The results were disastrous, SRK had said he would destroy Saawariya and he did.

Bhansali was mocked for releasing a ‘blue’ film even at award functions that year and Ranbir – Sonam got the worst possible starts to their career. There were lessons to be learnt from the clash, not just for Bhansali but for others as well. One, be careful before deciding to release your film against a big superstar. Two, avoid taking on a film that is more audience friendly, more so when your film doesn’t belong to the popular genre. Three, hold trial shows, check the response and never clash if the film hasn’t shaped up as well as it should have.

Fast forward to 2015 and we have the exact same scenario. Bajirao Mastani has a more experience team with a established female lead, but genre and star cast wise, Bajirao Mastani simply cannot match upto Dilwale.

So the big question is, why then would the veteran filmmaker risk his 15-year-long dream, Bajirao Mastani, against yet another Shah Rukh Khan film? From Bhansali’s point of view, there can only be one sane reason and that would be confidence in the film that he has made. Because if Bajirao Mastani doesn’t turn out to be a well-made film, the costs are so high, that the fate of the film could be worse than Saawariya.

We don’t mean to be negative or harsh towards Bajirao Mastani here, but a film made on a budget and scale as big as this, deserves a solo release. It’s unfortunate that it has to go against a film like Dilwale.

Moving on to the more positive side of this, what’s amazing about box office is its unpredictability. If Bajirao Mastani strikes a chord with the audience and manages to find appreciation, it could go on to be a huge grosser. If a dubbed film like Baahubali could grow inspite of competition from an acclaimed film like Bajrangi Bhaijaan, then Bajirao Mastani could too. The power of word of mouth publicity is incredible, and if the film carries the must-experience-on-big-screen kind of publicity, then it could go on to be a huge success. There is also that possibility that Dilwale might turn out to be a bad film, which would significantly increase the chances of Bajirao Mastani succeeding.

Advance Booking: The response has been good at places, especially in Maharashtra, but poor at others. Due to the delayed listing at multiplexes and dispute at single screens, most centres didn’t open advance booking even till late Thursday evening.

Screen count: There isn’t too much clarity on the screen count yet, but the expected screen count of Bajirao Mastani is around the 2000 screens.

IndicineFBO: We expect Bajirao Mastani to collect Rs 11.5 crore on its opening day at the box office.

Check out the detailed box office predictions of Bajirao Mastani

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

• Day 1 – 11.5 cr
• Day 2 – 13 cr
• Day 3 – 15 cr
• Weekend – 40 cr
• First Week – 70 cr
• Final – 120 cr+ (Hit or more)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

• Day 1 – 11 cr
• Day 2 – 12 cr
• Day 3 – 13 cr
• Weekend – 36 cr
• First Week – 55 cr
• Final – 80 cr + (Flop)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

• Day 1 – 11 cr
• Day 2 – 10 cr
• Day 3 – 10 cr
• Weekend – 31 cr
• First Week – 43 cr
• Lifetime – 55 cr (Disaster)

Note: Verdict would also depend on how Bajirao Mastani performs overseas.

In short, Bajirao Mastani has to be a good film to work.

Also Read: Business Economics of Bajirao Mastani