Happy New Year HIT or FLOP: Box Office Prediction

Happy New Year is the biggest release of the year so far, not just in terms of star-cast, but with 6000 screens globally (5000 screens in India, 1000 screens overseas) the Shahrukh Khan starrer is getting the widest release for a Bollywood film ever.

There are several reasons why Happy New Year is expected to take the biggest opening for a film ever. We list some of them below:

  • Shahrukh Khan’s first release after 14 months, that too after the super-success of Chennai Express.
  • The hit-pair of SRK and Deepika Padukone reunite after Chennai Express.
  • After her much-ridiculed film Tees Maar Khan, Farah Khan makes a comeback with her favourite co-star Shahrukh Khan, who was instrumental in launching her career in Main Hoon Na and the duo followed it up with Om Shanti Om.
  • Ticket prices have been increased for Happy New Year, the all India average is  slightly higher than Kick (as per our estimates).  Also, the grandeur and scale of the film will definitely bring in more audience to theatres.
  • The supporting cast has tremendously talented actors – Abhishek Bachchan’s acting-talent is under-rated, Boman Irani is one the best character-actors in the country and Sonu Sood doesn’t disappoint in such roles.

Happy New Year has almost everything going for it, right from a solo-release during the best period to release films, crores of rupees pumped into promotions (costliest marketing campaign of 2014), and starcast-wise it doesn’t get any bigger. But the fate of the film could well be decided by the script and Farah Khan’s direction. Happy New Year would be her biggest test.

The factors that could go against the film are few. The runtime is about 3 hours which is slightly on the longer side, not many have the patience to sit through a 3 hour film unless it’s hugely entertaining. Also, Happy New Year doesn’t have a chartbuster nor does it have a hugely popular love song. Manwa Laage has done well, but not close to how popular the songs from Om Shanti Om or even Tees Maar Khan were.

Trade sources say, Happy New Year has been produced and marketed at a cost of Rs 130 crore, making it the third costliest film in Bollywood after Dhoom 3 and Bang Bang. Yash Raj Films is distributing the film in India and overseas. 5000 screens including Hindi, Tamil, Telugu and 1000 screens overseas – are the figures released to the media.

Happy New Year team celebrate Diwali with India Today Group

Happy New Year team celebrate Diwali with India Today Group

Happy New Year Box Office Predictions

The trade expects Happy New Year to record the highest collections ever on a single day, a record currently held by Dhoom 3 (38 cr). Given the fact that a film like Singham Returns collected 32 crore on around 25% fewer screens, and Krrish 3 also managed to record the highest single day collections on the same day that Happy New Year is releases, gives the SRK starrer a good chance of collecting 40 crore on Friday. We expect the film to collect 41-42 crore on its opening day at the box office.

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

  • Day 1 – 42 cr
  • Day 2 – 36 cr
  • Day 3 – 40 cr (Sunday)
  • Weekend – 118 cr
  • First Week – 190 cr
  • Final – 275 cr+ (All Time Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

  • Day 1 – 42 cr
  • Day 2 – 34 cr
  • Day 3 – 37 cr (Sunday)
  • Weekend – 113 cr
  • First Week – 175 cr
  • Final – 230 cr (Super Hit / Blockbuster)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

  • Day 1 – 40 cr
  • Day 2 – 30 cr
  • Day 3 – 27 cr (Sunday)
  • Weekend – 97 cr
  • First Week – 150 cr
  • Final – 180 cr (Hit)

Due to the holidays and favourable release period, we think Happy New Year will emerge a HIT even in the worst case scenario. But box office is extremely unpredictable and the entire prediction could go for a toss if the opening day business is below expectations – that’s how important the first day business and records are in todays times, and the reason why SRK is releasing the film on Friday, a day after the Diwali celebrations.

But honestly, no trade analyst can make predictions, these are just expectations that a film carries in the trade before its releases. The response to the advance booking is good, but more than 70% of tickets are still available on sale, so just about anything can happen on Friday. Will Shahrukh’s star power ensure a record-breaking opening or will HNY fall below the opening of Dhoom 3, is something that remains to be seen.

What are your expectations from Happy New Year – HIT or FLOP? Post your predictions and comments below.

First Day Collections

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First Weekend Collections (3 Days)

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Lifetime Collections (Final Total)

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150 Comments

  • @indicine first correct that sentence hit pair of srk and deepika. they have given hit movies doesn’t mean their pair is hit. they are very odd together. sarook looks like father of deepika and also he is much shorter than her. so correct it. they are worst couple in bollywood. deepika looks good only with young actors.

  • @shahenshah that particular so called one king khan fails to get highest grosser since last 7 years. poor srk. shame on you srk.

  • Advance booking is not good but film is releasing post diwali, it may boost the collection on first day but after first day collection will go down because of not a good film hny.
    My prediction_
    first day 35cr-38cr
    second day 30cr-32cr
    third day 34cr-36cr
    1st weekend = 100cr
    1st week = 100cr 50cr= 150cr
    2nd week = 40cr-45cr
    2week total = 190cr
    and rest = 25cr
    lifetime of hny= 215cr

  • HAPPY NEW YEAR Is Stunning Combo Of Comedy And Action
    Pluses:
    Shahrukh Khan displays rare package of action, romance, comedy and intensity, Abhishek Bachchan is surprise package, Boman and Sonu are decent, Deepika Padukone looks simply hot, larger than life shoot, superb screenplay in 2nd half
    Minuses:
    Editing is patchy, not all songs work, Vivaan Shah looks lost, post interval takes time to catch the pace again
    Critic Rating:
    4/5
    Business Rating:
    4.5/5
    Verdict:
    Watch it for full dose of entertainment
    Detailed Analysis:
    ‘Happy New Year’ is next offeringfrom Red Chilles Entertainment and it is distributed by YRF. Film is directed by Farah Khan who delivered box office dud ‘Tees Maar Khan’ last time around. But she delivered two big hits with superstar Shahrukh Khan in ‘Main Hoon Na’ and ‘Om Shanti Om’.
    Film has typical Bollywood masala plot plot. It tells a story of six people from diverse background who come together to perform one of the mind blowing heist. But heist is executed via a dance competition and Mohini Joshi (Deepika Padukone) trains them in dancing but she herself is very bad in English. Charlie (Shahrukh Khan) brings Nandu Bhide (Abhishek Bachchan), Jag/Jagmohan Prakash (Sonu Sood), Temthon Irani (Boman Irani) and Rohan Singh (Vivaan Shah) together for the mission in order to settle his own account with Charan Grover (Jackie Shroff). But as many would have expected, this is not the central plot. How this gang goes beyond heist and restore pride of ‘Indiawaale’ forms the rest of the plot.

    Performance-wise Shahrukh Khan is simply outstanding and in top form. He makes you laugh, anticipate, cry and go oo- la la over his physique. Watch out for pre climax sequence and high octane entry – super stardom personified! Deepika Padukone is fantastic with her super comic timings and hot glam avatar. Abhishek Bachchan is surprise package in the film as she is revelation in first half. This is his most entertaining and confident act where he sheds all inhibitions. Boman Irani is good and so is Sonu Sood though Sonu lacks expression and performance but he makes it up with screen presence and sizzling body. Vivaan is the weak link as he looks lost at places.
    Background music of the film is splendid and song lift the tempo. Songs might not be that popular yet but while watching film at least couple of look sure chartbuster (my favorite undoubedtly ‘Indiawaale’ and ‘Lovely’). Script moves on fast pace but 2nd half takes time to get going. Dialogues are good and choreography is excellent. Cinematography is too good as every shot looks larger than life. Editing is uneven as few shots are repetitive. Costume and art department did their job well.
    But its director Farah Khan who makes a strong statement after her last forgettable outing. She delivers another Manomohan Desai style film with deadly medley of music, dance, comedy, romance and action. Though this time around she excels in screenplay department too. Film doe snot seem to be too lengthy which many would doubt due to close to 3 hour running time as it has plenty to offer in terms of characters and entertainment. And yes it has few film industry jokes and surprise elements!

    Film will release tomorrow and will get bumper opening all over. Next three days are national holidayand will give film huge boost. Film has everything what a mass audiencewill expect. Thoughgreat box office numbers are guaranteed but good word of mouth can make it historical at box office!

    Go for this one if you are looking for larger than life Bollywood style romance, drama, comedy and dialoguebaazi!

  • even if i watch HNY i will watch it only for sonu sood. he is damn talented and flawless actor. also abhishek is highly underrated. i loved his performance in yuva, guru, delhi 6, etc.and of course boman is entertaining in every role he plays. but not for a particular overrated over actor, credit chor.

  • @Indicine. WY aren’t my comments getting posted??? Do I need to talk bad or filth about SRK to get my comment posted. Coz that appears the order of the day Indicine

  • @indicine advance booking is better than kick because kick was a non holiday pre eid release while hny releases on full national holiday with huge promotion despite that it is just better than kick in places which is disappointing i think music and trailer are not upto the mark again i am saying opening will 35to36cr not more than that and lifetime will be 180to190cr anyone can bet me on this.

  • LOL ..it made my day. Every where HNY is getting 1 out of 5 star. Looks like worst movie of the year…Ha Ha Ha,…. UTTER FLOP!!!!!

  • @indicine but BookMyShow says that 60% shows are Sold Out & almost all shows are fast filling. we have the application dude .. why would Book My Show over exaggerate things. ?

  • Who want to see 3 hrs of Farah Khan torture. Sorry to say, I am not SRK fan but like his films, except those made by Farah Khan.

  • Review for gulf is average so prediction is Max to Max 160 Cr. which not fare for srk movie. He needs to think and choose film right film

  • SRK is a huge actor & has got a huge star power ………………… I myself s his huge fan
    But still I think that 300 crores are actually quite a big one to chase ……….
    I live at Kolkata & here SRK s truly d king of Bollywood . NO Aamir or Salman rule s here.
    But still I think dat d movie can’t do a business f 300 crores ………..
    M nt 2 gr8 at predictions bt still its wat I predict-
    Day-1 —- 38 crs
    Day-2 —- 34 crs
    Day-3 —- 40 crs
    Weekend —- 116 crores
    Day-4 —- 23 crs
    Day-5 —- 17 crs
    Day-6 —- 14 crs
    Day-7 —- 12 crs
    1st Week —- 182 crs
    2nd Week —- 45 crs
    Rest —- 25 crs
    Total — 253 crs
    (Note :- All those Aamir fans who r barking dat Dhoom 3 was a blockbuster den note down dat Dhoom-3 was blockbuster nt b’coz f Aamir ………… it was b’coz f d huge brand value of Dhoom Series dat t went 2 be a blockbuster . If Akshay Kumar or SRK wld have done t den t wld have surely done a business f over 300 crores )

  • I can see far better screens and shows for HNY than any other film in 2013 & 14. So HNY has a capacity to collect 40 crores on first day. But question is how strong the buzz is?….I can’t see any one going crazy over too watch this movie as the craze was for D-3, Bang Bang before release.

    With 3 hour movie – i can easily say that 2nd week & 3rd week business will not be great. It has to get a very good critic rating and positive WOM for audience to come and enjoy it.

    However what i strongly feel this point of time is, critics ratings will be good for HNY even though it does not have strong content. Even if it is boring, critics will give a 3 star rating. Indicine will definitely give it a minimum of 3.5 star rating. Indicine will forget all logics now and will tell us that SRK was best so we will give 3.5 star.

  • SRK is the biggest star in india and should break D3 record, remember that every film failed to break 3 Idiots until SRK did it?

  • I have my reservations, the thriller was not that great, too many lead actors, too much going on – dance competition. a heist, confusing scripts, reminiscent of Tess Ma Han. I much preferred Bang Bang and Holiday

  • I have not just booked hny, tickets but have purchased Saturday’s evening tickets…wanna watch it with my friends …for srk..

    ll comment after watching…at Saturday’s night

  • day1=39.5
    day2=36
    day3=38
    weakend=112 to 114
    weekdays=70
    week1=180
    weekend2=36
    week 2=60
    week3=30
    remaining=20

    lifetime==290 to 310cr

  • First of all, Happy and Blessed Diwali to all!
    35 Crores Day 1
    95 Crores Weekend
    Lifetime 195 Crores
    The Dhobi Machine will just be Hit because its budget is 150 Crores!
    Watching it 7PM show on Friday! Wait for my awesome review!

    @Indicine, all your reasons to show hny in positive limelight fall flat!
    @Bulli, you rock. Keep entertaining us.

  • KKRs review on Youtube about HNY was brilliant. 1 star and special praise for Teesra Khan Farah for maintaining her familys track record of making brainless so called entertainers…!

  • inditsine,
    What happened to your site? Yesterday I could not able to vote, today your site showed not my choice !!!!!!! I voted for 35-40 cr on the first day, and the site showed that I voted for the 40 cr+, and so the rest. What’s this? Falsification ???

  • Dear Srk you are wasting his talent with 2nd grade Directors. 40 crs and 30 crs collection is not respectable in case you and your team earning by fooling the people. Please do not run behind success or money , make a movie excellent. success zak marke phiche aayega. I wish Raees and FAN should be watchable then this garbage

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