Happy New Year HIT or FLOP: Box Office Prediction

Happy New Year is the biggest release of the year so far, not just in terms of star-cast, but with 6000 screens globally (5000 screens in India, 1000 screens overseas) the Shahrukh Khan starrer is getting the widest release for a Bollywood film ever.

There are several reasons why Happy New Year is expected to take the biggest opening for a film ever. We list some of them below:

  • Shahrukh Khan’s first release after 14 months, that too after the super-success of Chennai Express.
  • The hit-pair of SRK and Deepika Padukone reunite after Chennai Express.
  • After her much-ridiculed film Tees Maar Khan, Farah Khan makes a comeback with her favourite co-star Shahrukh Khan, who was instrumental in launching her career in Main Hoon Na and the duo followed it up with Om Shanti Om.
  • Ticket prices have been increased for Happy New Year, the all India average is  slightly higher than Kick (as per our estimates).  Also, the grandeur and scale of the film will definitely bring in more audience to theatres.
  • The supporting cast has tremendously talented actors – Abhishek Bachchan’s acting-talent is under-rated, Boman Irani is one the best character-actors in the country and Sonu Sood doesn’t disappoint in such roles.

Happy New Year has almost everything going for it, right from a solo-release during the best period to release films, crores of rupees pumped into promotions (costliest marketing campaign of 2014), and starcast-wise it doesn’t get any bigger. But the fate of the film could well be decided by the script and Farah Khan’s direction. Happy New Year would be her biggest test.

The factors that could go against the film are few. The runtime is about 3 hours which is slightly on the longer side, not many have the patience to sit through a 3 hour film unless it’s hugely entertaining. Also, Happy New Year doesn’t have a chartbuster nor does it have a hugely popular love song. Manwa Laage has done well, but not close to how popular the songs from Om Shanti Om or even Tees Maar Khan were.

Trade sources say, Happy New Year has been produced and marketed at a cost of Rs 130 crore, making it the third costliest film in Bollywood after Dhoom 3 and Bang Bang. Yash Raj Films is distributing the film in India and overseas. 5000 screens including Hindi, Tamil, Telugu and 1000 screens overseas – are the figures released to the media.

Happy New Year team celebrate Diwali with India Today Group

Happy New Year team celebrate Diwali with India Today Group

Happy New Year Box Office Predictions

The trade expects Happy New Year to record the highest collections ever on a single day, a record currently held by Dhoom 3 (38 cr). Given the fact that a film like Singham Returns collected 32 crore on around 25% fewer screens, and Krrish 3 also managed to record the highest single day collections on the same day that Happy New Year is releases, gives the SRK starrer a good chance of collecting 40 crore on Friday. We expect the film to collect 41-42 crore on its opening day at the box office.

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

  • Day 1 – 42 cr
  • Day 2 – 36 cr
  • Day 3 – 40 cr (Sunday)
  • Weekend – 118 cr
  • First Week – 190 cr
  • Final – 275 cr+ (All Time Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

  • Day 1 – 42 cr
  • Day 2 – 34 cr
  • Day 3 – 37 cr (Sunday)
  • Weekend – 113 cr
  • First Week – 175 cr
  • Final – 230 cr (Super Hit / Blockbuster)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

  • Day 1 – 40 cr
  • Day 2 – 30 cr
  • Day 3 – 27 cr (Sunday)
  • Weekend – 97 cr
  • First Week – 150 cr
  • Final – 180 cr (Hit)

Due to the holidays and favourable release period, we think Happy New Year will emerge a HIT even in the worst case scenario. But box office is extremely unpredictable and the entire prediction could go for a toss if the opening day business is below expectations – that’s how important the first day business and records are in todays times, and the reason why SRK is releasing the film on Friday, a day after the Diwali celebrations.

But honestly, no trade analyst can make predictions, these are just expectations that a film carries in the trade before its releases. The response to the advance booking is good, but more than 70% of tickets are still available on sale, so just about anything can happen on Friday. Will Shahrukh’s star power ensure a record-breaking opening or will HNY fall below the opening of Dhoom 3, is something that remains to be seen.

What are your expectations from Happy New Year – HIT or FLOP? Post your predictions and comments below.

First Day Collections

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First Weekend Collections (3 Days)

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Lifetime Collections (Final Total)

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150 Comments

  • Just like Srk’s last 2 diwali release, this will also fizzle.
    Don’t think it can cross 180 cr in India.

  • O god.. SRK’s stardom is so overrated.. Havnot u guyz seen Ormax Charts which comes every month…SRK floats in between 3rd n 4th spot.. I mean, he is popular.. But he is not as popular as u ppl think.. He is just another A-lister…

  • HNY is Farah Khan’s career ending movie. And in this process she’ll also bring Srk down from where Rohit took him last year.

  • @Bollywood Fan — SRK got rehy because VVC won’t let RAJU HIRANI work with SRKs RCE…also he didn’t share a good relation with SRK.

  • no doubt movie is going to be a flop… srk fans I’m challenging u movie will not cross 200cr.
    hny touch challenge will start from monday onwards…

  • boi n many other sites r saying dat adv booking is around 70% & also in my nearby theatres almost all shows are housefull,how can more than 70% tickets be still available???

  • hny review r out overall it’s average movie
    critics gives rating between 2-2.5/5. same like bang bang.
    but overall it’s depending upon wom.

  • hny review r out overall it’s average movie
    critics gives rating between 2-2.5/5. same like bang bang.
    but overall it’s depending upon wom.
    flop.

  • my prediction for
    PK ? lifetime collection = 250 crore
    HNY?lifetime collection = 125 crore
    Finally the greatest cinema is coming in form of PK releasing on 19 Dec 2014 ( The biggest Christmas release )
    and a crap cinema is coming in form of HAPPY NEW YEAR releasing tomorrow , sorry , hny may be a great cinema but just for srk fans not for all.
    better luck next time srk fans.

  • Should comfortably open above 38 crs due to festive holiday. However biggest test starts on Monday as there are no Holidays after Sunday.

    Opening : 36-40 cr*
    Weekend : 100 – 115 cr*
    Final : 195 – 215 cr*

    * with Average and mixed wom !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • KRK:I gave 3* to #Kick because #Kick is #Sholay compare to #HappyNewYear so I have given 1*. I can delay my review for friends but can’t lie.

  • KRK @kamaalrkhan
    I have watched #HappyNewYear and I am proud of Farah Khan Ji who has kept her reputation 100% intact. I give 1* to this beautiful film.

  • Our expectations are always huge with our kings movie so we always want our king to break all records but we cannot force people to buy tickets if 70% tickets are vacant

  • ADVANCE BOOKING IS 30 PERCENT BECAUSE THEY OPEND IT LATE.INE THING IS SURE OPENING DAY IS GOING TO BREAK.1ST WEEKEND WILL BE HUGE BUT AFTER THAT CONTENT WILL DECIDE THE FATE(about whom i have serious doubts because of farah khan as you can see each and every actor doing overacting in trailer and alse 3 hour and 8 mints are too long)

  • We want our kings movie hny to cross dhoon 3 collection and we also request people to not post reviews posted in dubai magazines

  • I think my feeling of #HNY turning out to be TMK2 is going to come true. I haven’t read any appreciations 4m any top actor after premier.!!

  • Shahrukh Khan’s star power Is enough to create an opening day record..after that let’s see what Farah khan has in store

  • Happy New Yearhas been one of the most awaited films of the year. Being the Diwali release, thisShah Rukh Khanstarrer is already getting huge responses through its advance bookings. Interestingly, looking at the early booking report, it seems that the film is set to have a massive opening and that trade pundits can expect a huge competition to beatDhoom 3‘s highest opening record.
    In Mumbai, the advance bookings opened on Wednesday and clearly the response has been huge as expected. The screen count is massive spread over the single screens and multiplexes. In Pune too, the film has already shown a housefull board for the morning shows at the multiplexes. In spite of high ticket rates, the film is getting a good response. In mass circuits like Rajasthan and West Bengal, the film is showing massive bookings and it seems it will be collecting a huge opening figure considering such responses.Metros like Delhi and Bangalore too are having advance bookings in full swing and it seems thatHappy New Yearwill be cashing in on the extended Diwali weekend well enough.

  • HAPPY DEEWALI TO MY KING KHAN,ALL THE SRKIANS, @INDICINE MEMBERS AND EVERYONE WHO ARE VISITING THIS SITE EVERYDAY.WISH YOU A GRAND HAPPY DEEWALI.THE GOD ALWAYS BLESS YOU ALL.

    EVERONE WATCH HNY ON THEATRE AND I AM 100% SURE THIS FILM WILL GIVE UNLIMITED ENTERTAINMENT TO ALL OF YOU.

    CHARLIE IS COMING.

  • Ha ha ha ha. 2 articles released in the morning on Indicine
    Pk trailer launch photos and hrs news. Both equally famous. But none is interested in that which can be easily made out by the number of comments. Ha ha ha.
    This article in just an hour gets around 50 comments. And its about SRK. Ha ha
    U can love him or hate him but u can’t ignore him. The movie which is going to create euphoria and ll jam all Ur servers now till its first week run.
    Yes is happy New year time.
    Humongous would be a small word in front of it. Way to go. All records broken INSHAALLAH tomorrow

  • @Indicine. I really dont know from where u have got this news that ticket rates are hiked.
    I am from Bangalore and all the rates are same.
    Be it inox or pvr or fun cinemas
    Infact lot of big cinemas like vision cinemas are charging just 200. That’s so less.

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