Happy New Year HIT or FLOP: Box Office Prediction

Happy New Year is the biggest release of the year so far, not just in terms of star-cast, but with 6000 screens globally (5000 screens in India, 1000 screens overseas) the Shahrukh Khan starrer is getting the widest release for a Bollywood film ever.

There are several reasons why Happy New Year is expected to take the biggest opening for a film ever. We list some of them below:

  • Shahrukh Khan’s first release after 14 months, that too after the super-success of Chennai Express.
  • The hit-pair of SRK and Deepika Padukone reunite after Chennai Express.
  • After her much-ridiculed film Tees Maar Khan, Farah Khan makes a comeback with her favourite co-star Shahrukh Khan, who was instrumental in launching her career in Main Hoon Na and the duo followed it up with Om Shanti Om.
  • Ticket prices have been increased for Happy New Year, the all India average is  slightly higher than Kick (as per our estimates).  Also, the grandeur and scale of the film will definitely bring in more audience to theatres.
  • The supporting cast has tremendously talented actors – Abhishek Bachchan’s acting-talent is under-rated, Boman Irani is one the best character-actors in the country and Sonu Sood doesn’t disappoint in such roles.

Happy New Year has almost everything going for it, right from a solo-release during the best period to release films, crores of rupees pumped into promotions (costliest marketing campaign of 2014), and starcast-wise it doesn’t get any bigger. But the fate of the film could well be decided by the script and Farah Khan’s direction. Happy New Year would be her biggest test.

The factors that could go against the film are few. The runtime is about 3 hours which is slightly on the longer side, not many have the patience to sit through a 3 hour film unless it’s hugely entertaining. Also, Happy New Year doesn’t have a chartbuster nor does it have a hugely popular love song. Manwa Laage has done well, but not close to how popular the songs from Om Shanti Om or even Tees Maar Khan were.

Trade sources say, Happy New Year has been produced and marketed at a cost of Rs 130 crore, making it the third costliest film in Bollywood after Dhoom 3 and Bang Bang. Yash Raj Films is distributing the film in India and overseas. 5000 screens including Hindi, Tamil, Telugu and 1000 screens overseas – are the figures released to the media.

Happy New Year team celebrate Diwali with India Today Group

Happy New Year team celebrate Diwali with India Today Group

Happy New Year Box Office Predictions

The trade expects Happy New Year to record the highest collections ever on a single day, a record currently held by Dhoom 3 (38 cr). Given the fact that a film like Singham Returns collected 32 crore on around 25% fewer screens, and Krrish 3 also managed to record the highest single day collections on the same day that Happy New Year is releases, gives the SRK starrer a good chance of collecting 40 crore on Friday. We expect the film to collect 41-42 crore on its opening day at the box office.

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

  • Day 1 – 42 cr
  • Day 2 – 36 cr
  • Day 3 – 40 cr (Sunday)
  • Weekend – 118 cr
  • First Week – 190 cr
  • Final – 275 cr+ (All Time Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

  • Day 1 – 42 cr
  • Day 2 – 34 cr
  • Day 3 – 37 cr (Sunday)
  • Weekend – 113 cr
  • First Week – 175 cr
  • Final – 230 cr (Super Hit / Blockbuster)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

  • Day 1 – 40 cr
  • Day 2 – 30 cr
  • Day 3 – 27 cr (Sunday)
  • Weekend – 97 cr
  • First Week – 150 cr
  • Final – 180 cr (Hit)

Due to the holidays and favourable release period, we think Happy New Year will emerge a HIT even in the worst case scenario. But box office is extremely unpredictable and the entire prediction could go for a toss if the opening day business is below expectations – that’s how important the first day business and records are in todays times, and the reason why SRK is releasing the film on Friday, a day after the Diwali celebrations.

But honestly, no trade analyst can make predictions, these are just expectations that a film carries in the trade before its releases. The response to the advance booking is good, but more than 70% of tickets are still available on sale, so just about anything can happen on Friday. Will Shahrukh’s star power ensure a record-breaking opening or will HNY fall below the opening of Dhoom 3, is something that remains to be seen.

What are your expectations from Happy New Year – HIT or FLOP? Post your predictions and comments below.

First Day Collections

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First Weekend Collections (3 Days)

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Lifetime Collections (Final Total)

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  • Watched 3 idiots yesterday on sonymax and still enjoyed it. I can`t believe srk rejected raju hirani to work in Main Hoon Na in 2004. Else, munnabhai, 3 idiots and pk would have been his!
    HNY should be between 180-220 cr.

  • wow indicine trying too hard to potray happy new year as a big film and a great film. sorry we all have seen its trailer which is the most disappointing trailer of this year. its songs, well none of them clicked big with the audience. and you are now praising the crap abhishek bachchan just to add positivity to this film ?? really ?? when will you stop overrating the khans?? kick was crap,hny is crap, only pk is looking promising.

  • 1st day – 35
    2nd – 30
    3rd – 36
    4th – 21
    5th – 13
    6th – 9
    7th -7
    frst week – 150 crs
    2nd – 30
    Remaining – 10

    final 190 cr

  • Dhoom 3 will be crushed!! Almost everyone in trade is expecting a record like that would stay for a few years untouched n you are questioning whether it will stay below dhoom 3 lolz

  • I was going to watch HNY this Sunday, but then pk teaser came out and I plan to watch pk twice in theaters instead of watching HNY

    Anyways my predictions are

    First day: 35 crores

    Weekend: 105 to 110 crores

    Lifetime: 220 to 250 crores.

    Analysts are seriously over doing it with 40 crores, dhoom was a big brand. 38 crore is a record really difficult to cross for even best of films.

    I dont think HNY might get word of mouth advantage as many critics have criticized the storyline.
    It will work only because of Srk’s starpower

  • @indicine also predicted 35cr opening day for Bang Ban, but it was manage to collect only 27cr. Same thing is going to happen with HNY.

  • ETT 33crs on 3300 screens. Singham Returns 32crs on 3600 screens. HNY should atleast collect 42-45 crs on 5000 screens or else it’s just a waste of a holiday.

  • i think movie will Hit…lifetime-180-190cr.coz buzz is very low.
    i live in noida, here is only 50% buzz..thats why im telling 180cr in lifetime…

  • Those who say SRK is a big star, remember 3 of his films chased Salman’s Ready before SRK gave CE (with the help of Deepika+Rohit Shetty)

  • More than 70% tickets are still available !!!!….Sold Out and Houseful placards are everywhere….If i remember then you all said this too during CE….I think this article is cretated fewdays back and posted now.

  • What is this Indicine,I don’t agree with your options.
    My predicition first of all Our king has 3.7 billion fans worldwide more than 50% people of world his fans.So if we just considered due to many circumstance in various place still .5 billion I.e. 50 cr people watch this film.Some places hny not releasing.For average I assume 20 crore footfalls for HNY we.As some people were skip the film as they are busy to drink complan to increase their height as like outr complan boy who is shorter enough in theatre he not able to see the film if some one sitting ahead him.Some are busy in Horlicks as they want to be smarter and sharper as HNY is intelligent hiest film.
    When the .movie release we srkians are standing outside 100 times more than people inside in theatre, and we creature too much hoople outside as multiplex owner escaped inside srkians to join us so first 3 days movie will cross 500cr we even though a single srkian hasn’t seen the film.Than we see again so lifetime collection here:
    10 crore footfalls India- avg ticket rate-50 rs so 500 cr in India (highest footfalls in theatre ever)
    10 cr worldwide — $5 average price so 50 crore $ or 3000 cr
    So final collection -3500 cr minimum.
    If any thing less than achieved by film than our main excuse is- wrong title of film as we thought HNY will release on near to 1 Jan as the title suggest but they released 2 months earlier so we thought movie title should be Happy Diwali to get more footfalls
    Warning- if we 3.7 billion fans watch the film in theatre than Avatra record is easily broken.But Him Ehsan kar rahe h Hollywood par.
    Don’t underestimate the power of our over actor king.

  • Final will be 300 crore + Happy new year dhamaka of 2014 all records are in dangers love u sir SRK

  • HNY is a sure shot blockbuster. i am from pakistan and i have booked tomorrows first day first show. very excited.

  • so according to indicine it would do 40cr opening day even in worst case scenario.
    now it may not do it but still sometimes i imagine what will happen to BO records if srk does a dhoom brand movie? or what if he gets a script like 3 idiots? i think this is the biggest fear that srk haters have deep down inside them.

  • I am poor at prediction.
    Still, here is my prediction(with average to better WOM like Krrish 3,D3):
    Day 1: 40 crores
    Day 2: 32 crores
    Day 3: 38 crores
    1st weekend total: 110 crores
    1st week: 180 crores
    2nd week: 50 crores
    rest: 20 crores

    Life time: 250 crores

  • Oh no and yes. HNY will do 40 crore on day 1. That will be 5 times he charges to dance in wedding. Our Srk is an expensive man. We are proud of our king.

  • @indicine: even though it has talented actors, i feel there will be some overacting. Farah khan makes his actors overact.
    You can see it in the trailer where Dips say “dancing ek art hai art”.

  • omg 70%tickets are still available now i am sure opening will not cross dhoom3 may be 35to36 but not more than that and lifetime will be 180to190cr anyone can bet me ob this.

  • Music above average, trailer below average, so film will be semi hit/hit/super hit. My prediction 170 + crore – 180 + crore. (Due 3days holiday weekend+deepika). If it releases without deepima & these holidays my prediction would be 105 + crore – 110+ crore for lifetime.

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