Understanding Box Office India: Trends, Terms and Predictions

We have been receiving a lot of questions in the last couple of days. Terms like trend, net collections, worldwide gross, distributors share is not only difficult to understand, but confusing at times.

In this article, we try and explain some of these terms in simple words to give our readers a better idea on how it all works and how we use ‘trends’ to make predictions.

Some trade terms:

• Net Collections: Unless mentioned, all collections of films that you see on this website are ’net collections’ i.e all-India collections minus entertainment tax. E.g: In Mumbai (where the entertainment tax is 45%), for a ticket costing Rs 200, about Rs 62 goes towards as entertainment tax and your contribution to the net collection will be Rs 138.
• Gross Collections: All-India collections including entertainment tax i.e if you pay Rs 100 for a ticket, the entire sum of Rs 100 is gross collections. Overseas collections are in gross and we also use gross collections to calculate worldwide total of films.
• Distributor’s Share: This is easily the most misunderstood term. A lot of people think that the entire collection of films goes to the producer or distributor. Just because a film has joined the 100 crore club, it does not mean all that money is going to the producer. A share of the net collections goes to the producer / distributor and the other to the exhibitor (theatre owner). The percentage of share varies, depending on where the film is performing (share is higher at single-screens or fixed rentals for films that run well). The share from multiplex business is highest in Week 1, drops in Week 2 and goes further down in Week 3. For easier understanding, it can be assumed that the collections that come to the distributor is about 50% of the net collections. E.g, if a film collects 100 crore at the box office, the distributor gets about Rs 50 crore. There is more to it like commission, but we won’t get into it in this article.

So in short, if you pay Rs 100 for your ticket, Rs 40 gets deducted as entertainment tax and out of the remaining 60 rupees, the film’s distributor gets about 30 and the exhibitor (theatre owner) gets 30. These figures do vary.

Trend: It begins on the day after release of the film and the direction in which it goes (growth or drop) decides the trend of a film. Important days that set the trend:

• Saturday (Day 2): Most films that do well at multiplexes, will show growth (upward trend) on Saturday. This is because Sunday is a holiday and audience in cities prefer to watch late evening / night shows on Saturday. For ‘massy films’ that do well at single-screen like Ghayal Returns, there is usually a drop on Saturday. In short, multiplex films dropping on Saturday is a negative trend, while for single-screen films a drop of 10% is normal.
• Sunday (Day 3): It’s a holiday and therefore the best day for film business. If business shows a drop on Sunday, it’s a clear sign of negative trend and negative word-of-mouth.
• Monday Test (Day 4): The first working weekday, which usually falls on Monday, is what we call the ‘Monday test’. Most films that ‘hold or sustain’ well on Monday, go on to do well at the box office. The percentage of drop that is ‘acceptable’ depends on the opening that the film has taken.
• Tuesday (Day 5): In recent times, Tuesday collections have become as important as Monday. If a film drops by 5-10% from Monday, it’s considered to be a ‘good hold’ or ‘good trend’, but if the drop is in excess of 15%, it could be a sign that the movie is not holding up. Tuesday business can sometimes also be an indication of how well a film will perform in its second weekend.

Since most films release on Friday, the above mentioned days are the most important days. Below we give you examples of different trends:

Excellent Trend: Films that carry this trend are certain to be successful at the box office and emerge as big hits / blockbusters. E.g: Airlift, Neerja, Kapoor & Sons.

• Friday: 10 crore
• Saturday: 13 crore
• Sunday: 16 crore
• Monday: 8 crore
• Tuesday: 7.5 croe

Good Trend: Films that show this trend go on to be successful and it also means the audience has liked the film. E.g: Ki and Ka.

• Friday: 10 crore
• Saturday: 12 crore
• Sunday: 14 crore
• Monday: 6 crore
• Tuesday: 5.4 crore

Average Trend Example: For such films; marketing, pre-release hype, music etc are very important, because for films that show average trend, the opening is crucial. E.g: Sanam Re.

• Friday: 10 crore
• Saturday: 11 crore
• Sunday: 12 crore
• Monday: 4.5 crore
• Tuesday: 4 crore

Negative Trend Example: A drop on Saturday, and Sunday at around the same level (or a little higher) as Friday, is usually a sign of a negative trend. It also means the film has not been liked by the audience. These films show big drops on Monday. E.g: FAN, Fitoor.

• Friday: 10 crore
• Saturday: 9 crore
• Sunday: 10 crore
• Monday: 3.5 crore
• Tuesday: 2.75 crore

Extremely Negative Trend: When Saturday and Sunday is lower than Friday, that’s usually the first sign that the film has been rejected. Monday crash becomes almost certain. If a film that falls in this category, fails to take a good opening, they go on to be big disasters at the box office. E.g: Rocky Handsome, Kya Kool Hai Hum 3 and many others.

• Friday: 10 crore
• Saturday: 8 crore
• Sunday: 8 crore
• Monday: 3 crore or less
• Tuesday: 2 crore

It’s not as simple as the above figures though, because factors like national holiday, partial holiday, big cricket matches, other films performing well - can all have an impact on the business of films.

After analysing the trend and all the other factors involved, we ‘call’ a film. If the trend is negative / extremely negative and the costs to be recovered are too high, then a film can be declared a flop as early as the first weekend.

IndicineFBO Predictions: Nowhere on the internet will you find a feature as unique as IndicineFBO (first day box office predictions). While we give our first prediction for a film on the day after the theatrical trailer is released, the final prediction is made a day before the release of a film. A lot of research goes into these predictions. Factors like star cast and the success/ failure of their previous release, lead pair, screen count, popularity of songs, response to the trailer / song promos and various other factors are taken into consideration.

IndicineLBO Prediction: This is yet another idea that is unique to Indicine. We give our final lifetime (total) prediction for films two days after its release. Some of our biggest and most accurate predictions are Dilwale (145 crore), Bajirao Mastani (168 crore – it eventually collected 12% more), Bombay Velvet (24 crore), ABCD 2 (102 crore), Tamasha (68 cr) and FAN (95 crore). These predictions are almost entirely based on our understanding of the ‘trend’ which we explained above.