AskIndicine: Live Now: Salman Khan and Sultan Special!

Today’s session of AskIndicine will be dedicated to Salman Khan and his upcoming film ‘Sultan’. Only questions related to Salman will be answered. We’ll include a few polls in here too. The questions need not necessarily be ‘Sultan’ specific.

We are trying something different this week. If the Live QnA session turns out to be ‘interesting enough’ for our readers, we’ll have more QnA’s dedicated to event films and other major releases in the future.

Post your questions in the comments section below:

Q. What’s the response of public on the songs of Sultan? I find it just good not great (Pratik Khuntia)

A. Yes, the response from the public has been mixed. Two songs have done well – Baby Ko Bass Pasand Hai and Jag Ghoomeya. Both have topped various charts. But no song has gone on to be a chartbuster.

Q. Seeing the promos and the songs, Sultan does appear to be one big mass commercial entertainer film. However, in one of your earlier articles you had mentioned that Sultan is NOT an all out commercial massy entertainer. What made you say that it is not a mass entertainer? (Lisa)

A. A lot of what we say in our articles is taken way too seriously. Sultan is most definitely a commercial mass entertainer, but what we meant by ‘not an out-and-out  commercial film’ is Sultan is not the regular glossy mega-budget film. The cost-of-production is much lower than a lot of big films, it doesn’t have big sets and it has a rustic earthy feel to it. In today’s times, for event films, ‘scale’ and ‘grandeur’ has become a very important factor – otherwise it’s hard to justify the increased ticket prices for the festive weekend.

Q. Budget of Sultan and the possible no of screens?

A. Yash Raj Films’ is yet to officially release economics. Cost of production is around 60-65 crore, excluding (not including) Salman Khan’s fee. An additional 25-30 crore on print and market.

Q. What happens if Sultan fails to perform at the box office, will this effect Salman in anyway? (Amit)

A. Every failure hurts the standing of an actor, irrespective of how big. If Sultan does 200 crore plus, it won’t affect him, but if it falls below the 175 / 200 crore mark, then there will be a dent in the aura that he commands today. That could result in other filmmakers eyeing the Eid weekend too. Having said that, opening is what’s most important and if Sultan takes a big opening and maintains its pace in the first 5 day weekend, the film will be through.

Q. Who are Top 5 actors of June 2016? (Ashu)

A. When it comes to opening – Salman, SRK, Aamir, Hrithik, Akshay. In that order.

Q. Don’t you think we haven’t seen such buzz like ‘Sultan’ have? If content of Sultan is 10/10 like BB had. And with super stardom of Salman Khan. Do u think Sultan have chances to cross 400 Crore net? (Faisal)

A. Too early to talk about it, because the film has to strike a chord with pan-India audience. The kind of universal acclaim that ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan’ got is tough for even the combo of Kabir – Salman to repeat. But assuming it gets a similar kind of response, there is a chance. Because there won’t be any competition for the 16 days before Great Grand Masti’s release. In comparison, Bajrangi Bhaijaan had Baahubali, which released a week before and was running very successfully for 5-6 weeks. There was a critically acclaimed film like ‘Drishyam’ exactly two weeks after.

Sultan is better placed, but how far a movie can go, depends on content.

Q. A lot has been said about sultan. But I wanted to ask what your expectations are regarding the content and the box office run of this film. Do you think it will be a good movie? (Waxaos)

A. It’s impossible to predict content – story, performances, moments, pace, entertainment value, repeat value.. a lot has to fall in place for a film to become a major grosser. It’s a golden opportunity for Ali Abbas Zafar to repeat what Kabir Khan achieved with YRF and Salman. If Sultan works, he’ll make it to the top league.

Q. When will you update the Top 15 actors ranking? Will it be after the end of sultan theatrical run or will it be after the release of Rustom and Mohenjo Daro? (Rubal Jain)

A. Thanks for your interest. It’ll be updated once after July 20 and once again in the first week of September. For now, you can read the last update in April 2016.

Q. Can Sultan cross 200 crore in 7 days?

A. An average of 28 crore per day for the entire duration of the first week is difficult, never been achieved before. There is a chance, but only if the film finds appreciation.

Q. Wanted is said to be the turning point of Salman Khan career.. But it was Dabangg which started the journey of blockbusters.. In between came dud like Veer just before Dabangg.. My question is what were the factors which made Dabangg All time Blockbuster? If there were any other actor apart from Salman in the movie will it be as big hit as it was?

A. Wanted came at a time when not many actors were exploring the ‘action masala’ genre, which even today (Baaghi is an example) the single-screen audience at smaller centres love. Wanted was a blockbuster at single-screens and brought back Salman’s fanbase. Until then, for a good part of last decade, he wasn’t doing films for his core fan-following. It’s also at this time when Salman made an entry into television with Dus Ka Dum and proved to be a very entertaining host. This increased his fan following even at bigger centres. The timing of Dabangg’s release was just perfect and the rest is history.

To answer your other question, it’s pointless to ask if another actor could have played a character made popular by someone else. Ghajini worked with Aamir, you can’t imagine Salman playing that role. But if he did do that film, he’d have done it differently. Characters are written with actors in mind, if that actor rejects the role, the script is rewritten to suit the actor who signs the film.

Q. In an interview, Salman Khan says Akshay kumar is a real sultan of Bollywood. Because he entertains audience for the entire year with most no of hits.. Your opinion?

A. There is no denying the fact that Akshay Kumar is a mini industry. The pace at which he works, his thorough professional approach, dedication and so many other things.. is inspiring for many. Every actor who’s been in the industry for 15 – 20 – 25 years, grown his fanbase and helped the industry grow.. is a legend. It’s a tough industry to survive for a prolonged period of time. Just take a look at actors who have failed inspite of all the backing and you’ll know how much the Top 5/6 actors currently have achieved.

Q. Would Sultan possibly earn 42+ crore on first day if Eid falls on 6th July?

A. It all depends on which date the government declares as a holiday for Eid. Initially, 7th was listed a holiday. But recently, the gov.in government website has changed the holiday date to 6th July. Either way, after the kind of response that the advance booking has got, we (and the trade in general) are pretty confident that 40 crore will be easily surpassed on the holiday. Stay tuned to our IndicineFBO final prediction on Tuesday night.

Q. Why 80% of FBO prediction go right with less than 15% difference? How you predict a movie’s opening and final box office prediction?

A. Predicting FBO (first day) is very difficult. A lot of factors (trailer, star cast, music etc) are taken into consideration before predicting the final figure. Some say a difference of 15% is way too big a difference for ‘accurate’ predictions, but we need to take into considerably external factors like possible producer inflation (since we use official figures), word-of-mouth which helps a film grow evening onwards – all of which are beyond our control.

As for LBO (lifetime prediction) our accuracy is much higher because we can analyse the trend (read more) and word-of-mouth before making a final prediction on Sunday morning.

The challenge with FBO or LBO is not to always get the prediction right, but to give our readers and people from the industry (a lot of them, including actors, follow our predictions) a close to accurate idea on what to expect out of the film.

Q. Do u think that Salman, SRK and Aamir movies collect more because there is no choice for audience during 2 weeks free run. So they are forced to watch their movies on festival season?

A. Not true. People are willing to spend money on films of these actors, because they like them and their films. You can’t force audience to watch films, more so when the ticket prices are so high. These days, a weekend trip to a nearby hill station costs the same as two movie outings for a family.

Q. Sultan or Dangal? Ur bet on highest grosser of the year?

A. We’d almost always put our money on an Aamir Khan film. The chances of Aamir delivering a classic is much higher than other actors. Plus, Christmas is a bigger period for film releases.

Q. I know that you’ve answered this in bits and pieces in many q and a sessions, but I want to post this as an actual question. Your summary and take on the phenomenal career of Salman Khan. Also, do you think he’s biopic material?

A. It’s been a phenomenal career, roller coaster ride. Highs that would put him in the league of Amitabh Bachchan’s and Rajnikanth’s of the world, and lows when shows of his films were cancelled due to no audience coming to watch his film on Friday morning. It’s difficult to make it big in the industry, but it’s even more difficult to comeback after career lows. His personal life has been arguably the most controversial for a Bollywood actor. Certainly biopic material, but who’ll have the guts to give us a ‘real’ account of Salman Khan’s life? Will he allow it?

Q. There is heavy rain in Mumbai and Maharashtra.. So what will be the effect of rain on the opening day collection of Sultan ?

A. It does affect film business, but we haven’t really seen a huge impact in the last few years. If it rains heavily for the evening / night shows, it might make a difference to Sultan, but looking at the advance booking.. shows might get sold out in advance.

Q. Do you think Salman can maintain his position of BO Numero Uno until 2020?

A. When even the fate of Sultan cannot be accurately predicted so close to release, it’s impossible to talk about 2020. One or two bad films can suddenly change everything, including the perception. Going forward, a lot will depend on his film choices.

Q. Why the trade is expecting too much from Salman Khan like 45 crore opening on Eid day which never happened, even by Bajrangi Bhaijaan like classic movie with unarguably the Best WOM of the decade & other stuff like 170+ crore in 5 days etc etc. Then they might say that it underperformed?

A. The expectations is because, only Salman has been able to consistently raise the bar when it comes to opening days at the box office. The year-on-year growth from Dabangg (2010) to Bodyguard (2011) was 50%, Bodyguard to Ek Tha Tiger (2012) was also nearly 50%. The opening of these two films were unbelievably huge, setting the bar way higher. That’s where the expectations come from. It hasn’t happened in the last 3-4 years because of Pre-Eid and other factors, but the trade is always optimised when it comes to Salman Khan films.

Q. Since there is absolutely no competition, can Sultan get 5000 screens? Or how many screens is it releasing on?

A. Sultan is looking at 4500 plus screens. Screens are still getting booked.. YRF is yet to put out a number.

Q. What is the response to Advance Booking of Sultan till now. Is it going well?

A. ‘Well’ is not the right word. It’s phenomenal and earth shattering. Shows were sold out in minutes today. Demand for tickets is unbelievable. The occupancy on Wednesday should be incredibly high.

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Q. Rate on a scale of 1-10. How good is Salman Khan as an actor? Be gentle.

A. Most of his films don’t require him to act. He’s been good in quite a few films that required him to perform, like Tere Naam. We’ve also really liked what we’ve seen so far from the Sultan promos. Salman films rely on his charisma and screen-presence, which is also a talent that not many actors are blessed with. It’s what separates the superstars from stars and other actors. Irrfan Khan and Nawazuddin Siddiqui might be great actors, but they can never be major stars. They can never command a big following.

Q. What will be the worst case scenario if the film is completely rejected? Will it still cross 150 crores?

A. The lower limit is very difficult to predict, because if the word-of-mouth is very poor, films can begin to drop from Day 2 itself. Extended 5-day weekend can be very risky if the film isn’t upto the mark. The worst-case-scenario for Sultan could be 130-140 crore if the film is completely rejected.

Q. What’s the inside report of Sultan? I heard that Salim Khan watched the movie and he loved it, is it true?

A. Yes, Salim Khan said “It’s also one of the most gripping films of Salman’s career” He also praised Bajrangi Bhaijaan and Prem Ratan Dhan Payo. No credible source that we know has watched the film. So no inside reports for now.

Q. Will it affect the business of Sultan to some extents if the reviews turn out to be similar to Gunday?

A. Reviews won’t affect these films. Not many care about reviews for big films anymore. It’s only the audience verdict that matters.

Q. What can be the 5 day weekend collection of SULTAN in the best case scenario?

A. Depends on the first day and then word-of-mouth. An average of 30 crore is achievable if the first two days are huge.

Q. Kick, Ek Tha Tiger, Dabbang, Bodyguard, Bajrangi Bhaijaan , Sultan. Arrange their music albums in order of your personal preference.

A. Bodyguard, Dabangg, Kick, Sultan, Ek Tha Tiger, Bajrangi Bhaijaan.

Q. Which Salman movie of the decade did you find least impressive? I hope you are not going to be diplomatic.

A. Ready (unbearable), Veer, Dabangg 2, Bodyguard.

Q. Can you list down the number of flops/disasters by Salman Khan in his entire career? Amongst the current lot of actors, does he hold the distinction of giving the most number of unsuccessful movies? We’ve talked a lot about his blockbusters post 2010, can you list down the unsuccessful movies in his entire career?

A. It’s all listed on Salman Khan’s box office page. What’s the need to talk about failures? What matters is the current standing. Every actor has failures against his name, true test lies in how strongly you comeback. It’s like climbing to the top of the Everest, falling back down and going back up again. Much more difficult and challenging than staying at the top.

Q. What is the more important for a star opening day collection or opening day footfall ? Please give top five opening day footfall ?

A. Opening day collection. In today’s times, a big opening day figure is breaking news. It creates positive perception. Whereas, a film like Jai Ho, which recording very high footfalls on Day 1, but managed a lower figure due to cheaper tickets, is perceived to be a poor opening – when compared to other Salman films.

The uniqueness of your work is unmatchable thats why you are The best Bollywood site no doubt. Hats off Indicine.

Many such comments / messages. Both on Twitter and here. We are always thinking of something new and very honestly, it’s not because of any bias towards any star or film. Thanks for your support.

Q. Do you believe that Messenger of God collected 300 crores?

A. Yes, in Paisa.

Q. Who is better in comedy between the 3 khans?

A. Loved Aamir in Ishq and Andaz Apna Apna.

Q. Pick genre-wise Salman’s best movie?

A. If you can differentiate the genre of Salman movies, we’ll answer your question.

Q. Since you are one of the top trade sites in the country, I would like to know what are your views on Salman Khan’s rape comments?

A. Why does a trade site need to have an opinion on Salman’s rape comment? From a box office point of view, there will be no impact.

Q. How reliable is the review of Umair Sandhu?

A. Who is that? Never even heard of that name before.

That ends our QnA today. 4 hours long session, 36 questions were answered today and we didn’t even think this page would get more than 100 comments. Like always, thanks for reading and commenting.

We’ll have more ‘special’ QnA’s during Mohenjo Daro / Rustom, ADHM / Shivaay and other big films..  Normal Sunday QnA next week onwards.