Trend: It begins on the day after release of the film and the direction in which it goes (growth or drop) decides the trend of a film. Important days that set the trend:
- Saturday (Day 2): Most films that do well at multiplexes, will show growth (upward trend) on Saturday. This is because Sunday is a holiday and audience in cities prefer to watch late evening / night shows on Saturday. For ‘massy films’ that do well at single-screen like Ghayal Returns, there is usually a drop on Saturday. In short, multiplex films dropping on Saturday is a negative trend, while for single-screen films a drop of 10% is normal.
- Sunday (Day 3): It’s a holiday and therefore the best day for film business. If business shows a drop on Sunday, it’s a clear sign of negative trend and negative word-of-mouth.
- Monday Test (Day 4): The first working weekday, which usually falls on Monday, is what we call the ‘Monday test’. Most films that ‘hold or sustain’ well on Monday, go on to do well at the box office. The percentage of drop that is ‘acceptable’ depends on the opening that the film has taken.
- Tuesday (Day 5): In recent times, Tuesday collections have become as important as Monday. If a film drops by 5-10% from Monday, it’s considered to be a ‘good hold’ or ‘good trend’, but if the drop is in excess of 15%, it could be a sign that the movie is not holding up. Tuesday business can sometimes also be an indication of how well a film will perform in its second weekend.
Since most films release on Friday, the above mentioned days are the most important days. Below we give you examples of different trends:
Excellent Trend: Films that carry this trend are certain to be successful at the box office and emerge as big hits / blockbusters. E.g: Airlift, Neerja, Kapoor & Sons.
- Friday: 10 crore
- Saturday: 13 crore
- Sunday: 16 crore
- Monday: 8 crore
- Tuesday: 7.5 croe
Good Trend: Films that show this trend go on to be successful and it also means the audience has liked the film. E.g: Ki and Ka.
- Friday: 10 crore
- Saturday: 12 crore
- Sunday: 14 crore
- Monday: 6 crore
- Tuesday: 5.4 crore
Average Trend Example: For such films; marketing, pre-release hype, music etc are very important, because for average trend films the opening is crucial. E.g: Sanam Re.
- Friday: 10 crore
- Saturday: 11 crore
- Sunday: 12 crore
- Monday: 4.5 crore
- Tuesday: 4 crore
Negative Trend Example: A drop on Saturday and Sunday at around the same level (or little higher) as Friday, is usually a sign of a negative trend. It also means the film has not been liked by the audience. These films show big drops on Monday, which is when we use words like “the fate has been sealed”. E.g: FAN, Fitoor.
- Friday: 10 crore
- Saturday: 9 crore
- Sunday: 10 crore
- Monday: 3.5 crore
- Tuesday: 2.75 crore
Extremely Negative Trend: When Saturday and Sunday is lower than Friday, that’s usually the first sign that the film has been rejected. Monday crash becomes almost certain. If a film that falls in this category, fails to take a good opening, they go on to be big disasters at the box office. E.g: Rocky Handsome, Kya Kool Hai Hum 3 and many others.
- Friday: 10 crore
- Saturday: 8 crore
- Sunday: 8 crore
- Monday: 3 crore or less
- Tuesday: 2 crore
It’s not as simple as the above figures though, because factors like national holiday, partial holiday, big cricket matches, other films performing well – can all have an impact on the business of films.
After analysing the trend and all the other factors involved, we ‘call’ a film. If the trend is negative / extremely negative and the costs to be recovered are too high, then a film can be declared a flop as early as the first weekend.