Analysis of Opening Day Collections of 2016

We are in the 9th month of the year, which is about the right time to look back at the year so far and analyse some films that opened well and films that disappointed.

Films that were above expectations on Day 1:

  1. Sultan (36.54 crore): At the moment, Salman Khan shouldn’t be compared to anyone else. His star power and choice of films is in a different league altogether. Not just the opening day, but almost all the first 5 days of Sultan was about two times more than the second best opening of the year. That says it all, doesn’t it?
  2. FAN (19.2 crore): Shah Rukh Khan’s FAN opened well at the box office. The film released on a partial holiday for Ram Navami, but was affected by the phenomenal run of ‘The Jungle Book’. Still, considering the fact that the film didn’t have too many commercial factors in its favour, the opening was good.
  3. Rustom (14.11 crore): Akshay Kumar’s Rustom, which was expected to hold appeal only towards the multiplex audience, managed to comprehensively beat the bigger film of the week, Hrithik Roshan’s Mohenjo Daro. It was the first ‘excellent’ opening for Akshay since Rowdy Rathore in 2012.
  4. Baaghi (11.94 crore): The timing of release worked big-time in favour of Baaghi, as the out-and-out action masala film opened very well at smaller centres. The presence of Shraddha Kapoor, who has a strong fan-following after films like ‘Aashiqui 2’ and ‘Ek Villain’, added tremendous value to the film. The credit for the opening went to Tiger Shroff, but that came crashing down when ‘A Flying Jatt’ opened poorly all over.
  5. Dishoom (11.05 crore): At the beginning of the year, Dishoom was expected to take a big opening, but that changed after the release of the trailer (which received a mixed response). However, Varun Dhawan’s presence ensured a good opening for the film.
  6. Udta Punjab (10.05 crore): To what extent the censor board controversy helped the film is debatable, but Udta Punjab took a very good opening at the box office. It also had a strong star cast (Alia, Shahid, Kareena – with the added star power of Diljeet Dosanjh in Punjab) which helped the film cross the 10 crore mark on Day 1.
  7. Ki and Ka (7.3 crore): Ki and Ka was expected to be a word-of-mouth film, but the opening day collections did come as a surprise as the Arjun – Kareena starrer collected 7.3 crore. The film was about 17% higher than our FBO prediction of 6.3 crore

Films that disappointed on Day 1:

  1. Great Grand Masti (2.5 crore): The lifetime collections of Great Grand Masti (3rd film in the franchise) was about the same as the first day collections of 2013’s Grand Masti – which pretty much sums up how disastrous the opening of the film was. Piracy put the final nail in the coffin of the ‘sex comedy’ genre.
  2. Mohenjo Daro (8.87 crore): The Hrithik Roshan starrer was declared a disaster on the day of its release itself. When a film that has costs in excess of 125 crore, opens in single-digits, only positive word-of-mouth can save the film. Unfortunately, the audience had a better choice in theatres and they opted for ‘Rustom’. The Ashutosh Gowarikar directed film is the biggest disappointment of the year so far.
  3. Fitoor (3.61 crore): The lead stars went all out to promote the film, but the unexciting promos resulted in a disastrous opening.
  4. Baar Baar Dekho (6.81 crore): The music album was huge, Kala Chashma was a chartbuster overnight, the promotional campaign was aggressive.. but the audience weren’t too excited. The opening could have been even lower without good music.
  5. A Flying Jatt (7.10 crore): Tiger Shroff was touted as the next big mass hero after the success of films like Heropanti and Baaghi, but ‘A Flying Jatt’ – which released on a partial holiday – opened poorly.
MovieDay 1Response
MS Dhoni21.30Excellent
Housefull 315.21Good
Ae Dil Hai Mushkil 13.30Excellent
The Jungle Book10.09Excellent
Udta Punjab10.05Good
Mohenjo Daro8.87Poor
Dear Zindagi8.75Good
Captain America Civil War8.53Excellent
Batman vs Superman8.32Excellent
Kyaa Kool Hain Hum 38.15Average
Ki and Ka7.30Good
Ghayal Once Again 7.20Average
Rocky Handsome7.16Average
A Flying Jatt7.10Poor
Kapoor And Sons 6.85Good
Baar Baar Dekho 6.81Poor
Raaz Reboot6.30Average
Force 26.05Average
Jai Gangaajal5.50Average
Sanam Re5.04Good
X Men Apocalypse4.51Average
Kahaani 24.25Average
Freaky Ali2.55Average
1920 London2.50Poor
Happy Bhaag Jayegi2.32Poor
Saala Khadoos2.19Poor
Rock On 22.02Disastrous
Teraa Surroor 1.79Poor
Sanam Teri Kasam1.25Poor
Love Games1.03Poor
Tum Bin 20.85Poor


  • Dis shows the starpower of akshay Kumar dat even aftr releasing multiple films in a year still lwys gives opening in the range of 12-15cr dat too irrespective of film genre and filmmakers is impossible for others..luk 8 other movies barring festival release whr actor cums 1s a year.. Fan n mohenjodaro didn’t got disaster review whr former got good reviews stil strugld to cross 100cr coz of non holiday.
    So start respecting akshayKumar and indicine pliz stop degrading akshayKumar his all movies opening were good considering given circumstances.

  • By end of year this should be sequence

    1. Sultan
    2. Dangal
    3. Shivaay/Fan
    4. Fan/Shivaay (3rd and 4th will be touch and go)
    5. Housefull 3/MSD

  • @ Sani.D

    Agree with ya. Indicine’s Shivaay FBO is 14.3 and 13.2 for ADHM which is completely off mark. Buzz of 7 for both which is again off mark. Just for one song (that is above average/decent at max) they are equalling its buzz with Shivaay knowing its trailer has been unanimously loved. Shivaay’s first day collections will be way higher than ADHM. Indicine’s FBO for Shivaay will prove highly INACCURATE.

  • Very good analysis Indicine.
    This year we have seen impact of trailer and perception of the audience about any movie played a huge role in box office opening.
    I feel star power is highly overrated as it ALONE cannot ensure a bumper opening. You need other factors too.
    According to me factors affecting opening of a movie:
    1. Box office pull of lead actor
    2. Release date
    3. Impact of trailer
    4. Genre
    5. Gloss/Scale of the movie (Does it look like a movie i will watch in cinema hall)
    6. Perception about the movie including social media
    7. Actress
    8. Music
    9. Last few releases of the lead and its success

    To ensure a opening like Sultan you need all the nine factors coming in together.

  • R u ghajini? Singh is bliing was also an excellent opener . ?? You yourself written it excellent opener .

    I think indicine head should hire more genuine and focused admins..!

  • Audience have better choice instead of Mjd, but that audience had also during bajiro vs dilwale clash than why dilwale opened to 21 and bajiro only 12 ? Because of starting power and same goes 4 Rustom. Hrithik is not a Crowd puller on non holiday while Akshay is .

  • This year dangal will take the biggest opening. I am predicting at least 37 cr opening from dangal on non holiday.

  • waiting for shivaay honestly, it will give good opening despite clash. high expectation from devgn this time. top 3 grossers will be Sultan or Dangal (2)shivaay.
    khiladi kumar was also unmatchable this year.

  • Before the release of fan, all paglapurians called it content-rich and masterpiece; and predicted around 200 Crores (content rich films with less commercial aspects like Airlift, Neerja, BM were working big time). But when failed, it was suddenly due to non-commercial genre. Rofl
    Who asked you all to hail that genre before the release and cry like a baby after release.

    Both Akshay and Sonam gave super hits with the films with similar less commercial appeals!!
    Going by the logic that FAN flopped because of its genre, Akshay and Sonam are bigger stars than SRK, no?

    Fact is your king films are not working simply: be they less/non commercial films or commercial masala films!!
    Barring from CE, both HNY and Dilwale are multiple masala films which under-performed.
    So why such an excuse for faulty Phanka’s failure? His films are not simply working no matter which genres they belong to.

    While you point out Jai Ho’s under-performance (a complete non-festive or non-holiday holiday with Republic day also falling on Sunday), you totally forget/ignore ‘READY,’ non-holiday release which earned Blockbuster verdict and 121 Crores way back in 2011.

    Jai Ho, a film with a low production value and a substandard trailer (that was not well received by the audiences), earned 111 Crores and Semi Hit status (a verdict equivalent to Dilwale) in early 2014.
    (Dont forget it was released on a complete working day.)

    Yet, a film called FAN — starring the biggest global star coming from YashRaj banner released on a partial holiday (having one more partial holiday in the same week) with much higher ticket price in the year of 2016 — struggled to cross 80 Crores and flopped badly.

    Talking about PRDP Vs Crappy New Year!! Lol You are comparing a multistarrer movie with a family drama
    film that rode on Salman’s shoulder alone.
    Yet it earned a better lifetime than the multistarrer masala CNY did no matter which source (Trade or Producer’s) you referred to. As per the trade source, it’s opening day was bigger too.

  • why you showing rustom behind fan I think rustom have better opening than fan and if you want to comparing fan have more screen than rustom and also release on partial holiday and no clash and things that in favor of rustom are only the marketing and music as the music don’t boost the opening to much and it is proved with bbd whether it is should to have one of the best opening this year and also still jabra fan is so one of the most popular songs the year so you can’t say that fan have better opening than rustom and every one knowing it

  • @XZone, I saw a comment of yours wishing Phanka just 112 Crores total i.e 1 Crore more than Jai Ho’s lifetime. You wanted your king to break Salman’s non holiday records. But sadly for you, Phanka left you dissatisfied. And you Zebras are dissatisfied creatures that have resulted chronic depressions in your minds and hatred in your hearts.

  • Anand bro, the opening of partial eid is slightly better advantageous than a partial general holiday like ram navami. But you can that sultan’$ opening on partial eid is better than happy new year’s real collection on the biggest diwali day.

  • I want dangal to the best film and break pk record cause now a days some morons are raising questions against aamir and hirani ,,yea It is true that hirani is the best director but before aamir joining with him nobody didn’t know munnabhai director,, if Dangal can surpass pk means hirani needs aamir, not aamir needs hirani ,,though they need each other to make a major topic related movie like pk!!

  • Definitely dangal on non holiday will beat sultans partial holiday first day collection
    Wait n watch
    Sab log yaad rakho ye number

  • @ Mr. Bollywood,

    And what will be the lifetime collection of Dangal?

    Could You Please Give Us A Figure? And Please Be Honest With Your Prediction…

  • Who has more star power? Akshay Kumar or Khans?

    In my definition Akshay Kumar is an IMPLICIT SUPERSTAR.
    SRK, Salman, Aamir may have more fans than Akshay, but they got more haters too. Almost everyone enjoy Akshay’s performance and approves his ability to
    perform stunts, make people laugh and cry at the same time – a complete all-rounder. Let me tell you a story that will summarize the star power of Akshay.
    Back in 2007, I went to watch ‘Om Shanti Om’ in Jaipur with my friends.
    Note: I’ve never seen people in Rajasthan (who are crazy about the Khan trio) even slightly bothered about Akshay .
    In the movie many stars including Amitabh Bachan to Salman to Sanjay Dutt make special appearance. When these stars appeared the people cheered and clapped, which was expected.
    Now, remember the Best Actor nomination scene?
    1st Nomination: Abhishek Bachan for Dhoom 5(Sadly not many cheered)
    2nd, 3rd and 4th Nomination: Om Kapoor
    5th Nomination: Akshay Kumar for ‘Return of the Khiladi’
    Believe it or not, as soon as the announcer said “Akshay Kumar”, there was HUGE HUGE UPROAR in the theater , which was much much much more than the claps and whistles that BigB, Salman or any other actor got later in the movie. In a place like Rajasthan where people are huge fans of 3 Khans and other big production houses’ role outs, I never expected that people would be so excited to see Akshay Kumar.
    I think that explains his star power. At least it convinced me that people like Akshay Kumar whether or not they are SRK or Salman or Aamir fans.
    He’s the guy who is the best at stunts, best at comedy, has killer looks, good enough at romantic and dramatic scenes. He’s the complete package.

    That’s why I call Akshay Kumar the IMPLICIT SUPERSTAR.

  • Akki Bhai has done movies like Khiladi, Khiladiyo Ka Khiladi, Sabse Bada Khiladi, Main Khiladi Tu Anari, Sangharsh, Welcome, Heyy Babyy, Garam Masala, Waqt – The Race Against Time, Humko Deewana Kar Gaye, Jaanwar, Rustom, Airlift, OMG, Special 26, Namestay London, Holidayn, Baby And Many More…

    He changed the meaning of “Action” in Bollywood first
    actor who do his stunts by his own and jumped from
    Flying Air Plane (1000ft) to air balloon in Khiladi 420.

    He is truly the Original Khiladi…

    For stunts, His gesture is always YES and those people who watch it live surely gets goosebumps…

  • @hrithik fan you will always remain a stupid.
    I was talking about opening, right? Go and check the opening of blue, TMK, on holiday.

    8-hit-thik is nothing in front of akshay. It’s a shame that Akshay gets compared with these chillars.

  • According to Indicine Data:

    Top 10 Highest Single Day Collection
    1) HNY : 44.9cr
    2) PRDP : 41.7cr
    3) BB: 38.7cr
    4) PK: 38.2cr
    5) Sultan: 38.2cr
    6) Dhoom 3: 38cr
    7) Sultan: 37.3cr
    8) Sultan: 36.62cr
    9) BB: 36.6cr
    10) Sultan: 36.5cr

    Salman: 7
    Aamir: 2
    Srk: 1

    And Srk fans call him Global Star…..LOL

    Only Megastar Salman Khan Rules….

  • Indicine Data:

    Top 10 Highest First Day Collection:
    1) HNY: 44.9cr
    2) PRDP: 41.7cr
    3) Sultan: 36.5cr
    4) Dhoom 3: 36.2cr
    5) CE: 33.1cr
    6) ETT: 32.9cr
    7) Singham Return: 32cr
    8) Bang Bang: 27.5cr
    9) Bajrangi Bhaijaan: 27.2cr
    10) PK: 26.6cr

    Salman: 4
    Aamir: 2
    Srk: 2
    Ajay: 1
    Hrithik: 1

    Again Megastar Salman Khan Rules…..

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