Analysis of Opening Day Collections of 2016

We are in the 9th month of the year, which is about the right time to look back at the year so far and analyse some films that opened well and films that disappointed.

Films that were above expectations on Day 1:

  1. Sultan (36.54 crore): At the moment, Salman Khan shouldn’t be compared to anyone else. His star power and choice of films is in a different league altogether. Not just the opening day, but almost all the first 5 days of Sultan was about two times more than the second best opening of the year. That says it all, doesn’t it?
  2. FAN (19.2 crore): Shah Rukh Khan’s FAN opened well at the box office. The film released on a partial holiday for Ram Navami, but was affected by the phenomenal run of ‘The Jungle Book’. Still, considering the fact that the film didn’t have too many commercial factors in its favour, the opening was good.
  3. Rustom (14.11 crore): Akshay Kumar’s Rustom, which was expected to hold appeal only towards the multiplex audience, managed to comprehensively beat the bigger film of the week, Hrithik Roshan’s Mohenjo Daro. It was the first ‘excellent’ opening for Akshay since Rowdy Rathore in 2012.
  4. Baaghi (11.94 crore): The timing of release worked big-time in favour of Baaghi, as the out-and-out action masala film opened very well at smaller centres. The presence of Shraddha Kapoor, who has a strong fan-following after films like ‘Aashiqui 2’ and ‘Ek Villain’, added tremendous value to the film. The credit for the opening went to Tiger Shroff, but that came crashing down when ‘A Flying Jatt’ opened poorly all over.
  5. Dishoom (11.05 crore): At the beginning of the year, Dishoom was expected to take a big opening, but that changed after the release of the trailer (which received a mixed response). However, Varun Dhawan’s presence ensured a good opening for the film.
  6. Udta Punjab (10.05 crore): To what extent the censor board controversy helped the film is debatable, but Udta Punjab took a very good opening at the box office. It also had a strong star cast (Alia, Shahid, Kareena – with the added star power of Diljeet Dosanjh in Punjab) which helped the film cross the 10 crore mark on Day 1.
  7. Ki and Ka (7.3 crore): Ki and Ka was expected to be a word-of-mouth film, but the opening day collections did come as a surprise as the Arjun – Kareena starrer collected 7.3 crore. The film was about 17% higher than our FBO prediction of 6.3 crore

Films that disappointed on Day 1:

  1. Great Grand Masti (2.5 crore): The lifetime collections of Great Grand Masti (3rd film in the franchise) was about the same as the first day collections of 2013’s Grand Masti – which pretty much sums up how disastrous the opening of the film was. Piracy put the final nail in the coffin of the ‘sex comedy’ genre.
  2. Mohenjo Daro (8.87 crore): The Hrithik Roshan starrer was declared a disaster on the day of its release itself. When a film that has costs in excess of 125 crore, opens in single-digits, only positive word-of-mouth can save the film. Unfortunately, the audience had a better choice in theatres and they opted for ‘Rustom’. The Ashutosh Gowarikar directed film is the biggest disappointment of the year so far.
  3. Fitoor (3.61 crore): The lead stars went all out to promote the film, but the unexciting promos resulted in a disastrous opening.
  4. Baar Baar Dekho (6.81 crore): The music album was huge, Kala Chashma was a chartbuster overnight, the promotional campaign was aggressive.. but the audience weren’t too excited. The opening could have been even lower without good music.
  5. A Flying Jatt (7.10 crore): Tiger Shroff was touted as the next big mass hero after the success of films like Heropanti and Baaghi, but ‘A Flying Jatt’ – which released on a partial holiday – opened poorly.
MovieDay 1Response
MS Dhoni21.30Excellent
Housefull 315.21Good
Ae Dil Hai Mushkil 13.30Excellent
The Jungle Book10.09Excellent
Udta Punjab10.05Good
Mohenjo Daro8.87Poor
Dear Zindagi8.75Good
Captain America Civil War8.53Excellent
Batman vs Superman8.32Excellent
Kyaa Kool Hain Hum 38.15Average
Ki and Ka7.30Good
Ghayal Once Again 7.20Average
Rocky Handsome7.16Average
A Flying Jatt7.10Poor
Kapoor And Sons 6.85Good
Baar Baar Dekho 6.81Poor
Raaz Reboot6.30Average
Force 26.05Average
Jai Gangaajal5.50Average
Sanam Re5.04Good
X Men Apocalypse4.51Average
Kahaani 24.25Average
Freaky Ali2.55Average
1920 London2.50Poor
Happy Bhaag Jayegi2.32Poor
Saala Khadoos2.19Poor
Rock On 22.02Disastrous
Teraa Surroor 1.79Poor
Sanam Teri Kasam1.25Poor
Love Games1.03Poor
Tum Bin 20.85Poor


  • salman is now doing every type of film whether that is comedy, action, emotional heart-touching family drama etc .

    I am waiting for tubelight.

    SRK is also a good actor, I liked his films like Chak De India, My Name Is Khan, Veer Zara, Swades

    After My name is khan, I don’t like the film choices of SRK

    I only want to tell SRK to do films like Chak De India, MNIK.. Please shoot your film in Indian location.. Only traditional cultural films are doing well whether it is Haranyi accent in Sultan or Bajrang bali ka bhakt..

    PK was also shot in India

  • after reading this paragraph, I feel proud of being a Salman fan

    1.Sultan(36.54 crore): At the moment, Salman Khan shouldn’t be compared to anyone else. His star power and choice of films is in a different league altogether. Not just the opening day, but almost all the first 5 days of Sultan was about two times more than the second best opening of the year. That says it all, doesn’t it?

  • Indicine.. So easily you blame the star casts. Tell me something before the release did you not know that despite the music goes well if the story line is not good the chances are less? You knew it’s kjo production house, Sid and Katrina statpower casts even equalling it with (name suspended). Bollywood respect individual stars according to their Level and stance in the movie industry but you people just use sentiment.
    Many will agree with me even if there’s a difference of 6 crores with your predictions you remain stubborn and blind us applying some #Indicine law of magical calculation # and say your prediction was still correct. You had no option for this and I know as much as you don’t want to hear let assure you,your prediction for Shivaay will be the highest percentage error and hoping you still stick with it and keep on overhyped Dharma. You will eat up your own words by tomorrow before 4pm after which you and I know what am talking about. Less than 19 hours now, there will be destruction!!! with your fbo prediction.

  • Our Khiladi Kumar is unique on his own and can’t be compared with others either.
    Three consecutive hits in year and crossing 3000Crores are no mean feats..
    Akki rocks infinitely..

  • “”……At the moment, Salman Khan shouldn’t be compared to anyone else. His star power and choice of films is in a different league altogether. Not just the opening day, but almost all the first 5 days of Sultan was about two times more than the second best opening of the year. That says it all, doesn’t it?…..”””

    This paragraph says it all. Salman Khan is the ruling megastar..

  • I hope Shivaay joins the first list as the trailer is exceptional . Ajay has worked really hard for Shivaay and also he is multitasking Acting, Production and Direction . The Jungle Book also deserves to be on the first list as nobody expected it to cross 10 CR+ on day 1 . !!!

  • @indicine I have asked so many question but I never got reply y? can u plz tell me the Expected date of raees trailer or any news abt that

  • Sultan, this year, instead of having one Full Eid Holiday, had two partial holidays for Eids — Wed & Thurs — due to the Supreme declaration of Holiday for Eid and the Eid falling the next day.
    So, both Sultan and Fan opened on partial holidays.
    But you can see the differences of BO earnings of the two movies… Now decide yourself..

  • May be You are right, Team…

    But, After the terrific success of Airlift (Republic Day), Rustom exceeded the expectations also for Independence Day and the 2nd PATRIOTIC FILM of Akki was expected to take a big opening day…

    Housefull 3 too was expected to open big on opening day but it managed quite well as Akki is the only star who releases 4 films every year so 15+ opening is considered excellent…

    At the conclusion, I respect Your article and the judgement…

    Keep Rocking…

  • Lol. Indicine defending Fan’s dismal performance by giving excuse of Jungle Book starring a small kid.
    Fact is if SRK’s star power was powerful enough, it would have easily overshadowed and dominated Jungle Book.
    But did you give similar excuses about Bajrangi facing Bahubali and Sultan facing multiple films later?
    Time for you to leave SRK alone without any defending.

  • 30cr + for consecutive 5 days (which includes 2 non–holidays) is a Extraordinary Achievement, If #SULTAN would have got 2 open weeks then lifetime total will surely been more than #BB….!

  • Some shallow people say the stardom matters only on the opening day and the rest depends on the content.
    Well, I will differ from it.

    See the below case:
    -Bajarangi Bhaijaan starring Irfan Khan would never have crossed 100 Crores, let alone 300 Crores.
    -PK would not have crossed 300 Crores if Nawazudding was in it instead of Aamir.
    -Even HNY would not have crossed even 50Croes if remove Deepika and SRK.

    Star Power + Well-Received Trailer = Huge Opening
    Star Power + Content = Huge Earnings at BO after initial two-three days…

    The trailers of both Fan and Sultan were received well. Both films released on partial holidays.

    So, what made a huge difference on the opening days of FAN and Sultan? Sultan opened almost double of what had done. Why?

    Because of the stardom of Salman is almost double of that of SRK as of today. Period!

  • The advanced BOOKING for Sultan is the highest ever.
    Now, you can credit it to only Salman Bhai’smegastardom stardom and the trailer of Sultan. Because people do not know about the contents of the films when they do advanced bookings

  • Megastar Salman kahn Rules proud of being a Salman fan the biggest superstar of Indian Film Industry Megastar Salman khan is the Ruling

  • Dear Team,

    Could You Please Publish An Article Of All The Collections, Recrods Made On Non Holidays (Apart Of EDX)?

  • @Indicine : It’s high time you stop exaggerating the ‘star-doom’ of that holiday made star. We all saw his stardom and opening of his movies when he released his movie on a non-holiday (Flop Ho).

    @Anand 05:17 pm : Hats off to your Lallu logic.
    Non-actor’s stardom is almost double as that of SRK. Agreed (if it makes you happy).
    But I won’t compare two different genre movies (FAN and Sultana) released in two different periods (one was released during lucrative Eid weekend while other released during dull IPL period with almost no commercial pinch in it) , but let’s compare the movies released in similar kind of circumstances – HNY and PRDP.
    Though almost everything was in favour of Bartan dho ke aayo (screen count, ticket price etc), it failed miserably to beat an year old record of HNY.
    And now don’t start blabbering like a loser about manipulation. Because if you go by trade figure, then Bartan dho ke aayo has not even crossed 200cr but you proudly flaunt about it saying it was another 200cr movie in the kitty of your non-actor.
    As far as genre is concerned, yes, both the movies had different genre, but aren’t you all the same people who said families will rush towards the theatres to watch the ‘sequal’ of ‘Hum Madhuri ke Hain Koun’ ?

    You just chose any two movies of both the stars which released with similar release advantages and see , who leads.
    Be it Eid, Diwali or Xmas, it’s either a neck to neck competition or SRK has a lead over non-actor.
    Though if you badly want to prove your point, you can even prove that 2+2=6 but as far as stats are considered, your comment is nothing else but a fallacy.
    Going forward, even I can prove that non-actor stands nowhere in front of SRK by comparing the opening day collections of Flop Ho and HNY(though both released in different months with different release advantages).

  • there’s no doubt megastar salman rules bollywood.. but we must also credit him for the choice of films he is making these days.. he just seems to do when to do what.. also he is portraying his roles very earnestly.. megastardom, good choice of films n his earnest performances has taken him to a different level.. he doesn’t claim to be the biggest star in the world, he doesn’t claim his films being a masterpiece or his performances being oscar worthy but he touches the common man’s heart with his films n performances irrespective of the genre..

  • The most neglected superstar by indicine is ajay sir…ajay sir will show u what he is this Diwali..u keep on supporting kjo and adi

  • Dangal
    10 days-270cr
    13days-310cr..dangal will beat sultan
    Life time-370cr
    All are saying there is a 3 weeks free run…Dangal needs only 13 days to cross Sultan….Wait n watch

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