Rustom vs Mohenjo Daro: Box Office Clash Analysis

A couple of weeks ago, Ashutosh Gowarikar’s Mohenjo Daro was one of the most awaited films of 2016. The trailer was expected to make a huge impact, giving the Hrithik Roshan starrer a big advantage in the box office clash against Akshay Kumar’s Rustom.

After all, on paper, Mohenjo Daro ticked almost every box. A talented and more established director. Bigger budget and scale. A bigger box office star, who does fewer films. The genre was also in Mohenjo Daro’s favour, after the success of ‘Baahubali’ and ‘Bajirao Mastani’.

But now that the trailers of both films are out, the tables have turned and the clash is now going to be much closer.

Rustom is leading at this point in time, because the costs are much lower and the trailer has managed to find appreciation – both with the audience and trade. This will result in Rustom getting higher number of screens than it previously would (not compared to Mohenjo Daro), it’s also likely to get a decent single-screen release. The film could also get equal number of shows at multiplexes, which will be a massive advantage.

As things stand today, Rustom has already won half the battle with a solid trailer. Mohenjo Daro will now rely on music to increase the buzz and post-release, the content to click big time.

The math is simple, to recover costs, both films combined have to collect more than Rs 230 crore at the box office. The ratio will be 65:35. Mohenjo Daro will not only have to take the lead against Rustom, it’ll have to nearly double its collections.

Interestingly, this isn’t the first time Ashutosh Gowariker is taking on a biggie. Exactly 15 years ago, Lagaan released with Gadar. Gowarikar lost the clash, but his film did well enough to recover costs and Lagaan went on to become only the 3rd Oscar nominated Indian film.

Rustom doesn’t even need to be a Gadar, not even close, but Mohenjo Daro will have to match or get close to the quality of Lagaan.