Raees, Kaabil Box Office Prediction

Two films that should never have clashed at the box office are finally releasing after a dignified marketing campaign. The internal slugfest to get the best screens was going on throughout, but it’s business and every producer wants to give his film the best possible release.

The makers of ‘Raees’ on the strength of Shah Rukh Khan’s box office pull and superior promos, have managed to get a wider theatrical release. The other film, ‘Kaabil’ too has got a good release, especially in the south where the Hrithik Roshan factor has ensured a big release.

For SRK and Raees the first target would be to cross the 125 crore mark, which would ensure that the film recovers costs and begins to get into the profitable zone. A good total for a film like ‘Raees’ would be in the 150 crore range and if the film manages to collect more, it would be a solid success for SRK after one outright rejected film (FAN) and an under-performer (Dilwale). A big total, which also means the film finding acceptance amongst the audience, would set him up well to achieve bigger totals with his next film directed by Imtiaz Ali.

For Hrithik, the success of ‘Kaabil’ is going to be very important after the disastrous ‘Mohenjo Daro’. He not only lost the previous clash, but the Ashutosh Gowarikar directed film did not even manage a face-saving total. ‘Kaabil’ being the underdog in the clash, might work in Hrithik’s favour because the expectations of a very big total aren’t there. ‘Kaabil’ would recover when it get into the 80 crore range and a 90-100 crore total would mean the film is a clean box office hit.

Factors in favour of Raees:

  • Promos: Raees has had some of the best promos for a Shah Rukh Khan film in a very long time, we’d have to go back to Excel’s own Don 2 for the last time when a trailer of his film got the kind of response that Raees has.
  • SRK: The legend himself. One of the biggest stars in the country, someone who guarantees a box office initial and the advance booking that Raees has got once again proves that SRK is one of the most loved stars we have in the industry.
  • Dialogues: Raees has had the most impactful dialogues in a Hindi film in a very long time. It’s been nearly 20 months since some of the dialogues were first heard in the teaser and the freshness is still intact.
  • Nawazuddin Siddiqui: He’s not someone who can pull a film on his own, but he adds tremendous value in a big film. It wouldn’t be surprising if a section of the audience come just to watch him take on SRK in the film.

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Factors against Raees:

  • Rahul Dholakia: Three films, three disasters. He’s won critical acclaim for one of his films, but directing a big film like ‘Raees’ is a different game altogether and he remains untested. If he hasn’t done his job well, the film won’t work.
  • Excel Entertainment: It’s a banner that hasn’t made a single massy film, most of their films are niche and targeted at the multiplex audience. Their last ‘clean-hit’ was Shah Rukh Khan’s Don 2 more than 5 years ago.
  • Two other minor negatives are; the long delay and reshoots, the presence of Sunny Leone, liquor trade etc could mean the family audience might not come in big numbers.
Raees vs Kaabil

Raees vs Kaabil

Factors in favour of Kaabil:

  • Hrithik Roshan: The superstar is going through a career low after the ‘Mohenjo Daro’ debacle, but he still has a strong fan-following. Prior to failure of his previous film, he was the only non-Khan in the industry to topple opening day, single day records and lifetime records.
  • Rakesh Roshan: From the looks of it, senior Roshan has played it well even though he is competing against a very big film. He knows the pulse of the Indian audience better than most in the industry. ‘Kaabil’ is his space too, the classic formula of good vs evil, the mighty vs the innocent.
  • Promos: The 2nd trailer and promos that the makers released towards the end of their campaign has worked quite well. Not comparable to Raees, but good nonetheless.
  • Economics: Kaabil doesn’t need to collect a lot to recover costs.

Factors against Kaabil:

  • Competition: It isn’t going to be easy for the film if Raees finds acceptance. Even if both films are good, Kaabil will have to be better.
  • Sanjay Gupta: He has a better track-record than Rahul Dholakia, but his success-ratio as a director is very poor. Most of his films have flopped.
  • A minor negative would be the darkish thriller genre, although the concept seems to be quite similar to Ghajini, the Aamir Khan film was way more colourful and happier looking which helps in bringing the family audience to theatres.

IndicineFBO: We expect Raees to collect Rs 21.5 crore on its opening day, which would be a similar total as Shah Rukh’s last film Dilwale. For Kaabil, the opening should be in the 11.5 crore range, which would be a fairly good total if the film can grow on word-of-mouth during the extended 5-day weekend.

MovieDay 1OfficialBuzzDate
Simran2.6-115 Sep
Lucknow Central1.8-115 Sep
Bhoomi3.5-222 Sep
Haseena Parkar1.0-122 Sep
Judwaa 215.5-828 Sep
Ok Jaanu5.64.08213 Jan
Kaabil*11.510.43525 Jan
Raees*21.520.42925 Jan
Jolly LLB 214.2513.2610 Feb
Rangoon6.35.0224 Feb
Commando 24.04.2523 Feb
Badrinath Ki
Dulhania
11.612.25710 Mar
Phillauri4.04.02224 Mar
Begum Jaan3.13.94314 Apr
Noor2.21.54121 Apr
Baahubali 233411028 Apr
Sarkar 33.02.0212 May
Meri Pyaari Bindu2.71.75212 May
Half Girlfriend9.210.27619 May
Raabta6.55.6149 Jun
Tubelight2721.15823 Jun
Mom3.12.937 Jul
Guest In London1.71.527 Jul
Jagga Jasoos8.88.57414 Jul
Munna Michael8.26.65321 Jul
Mubarakan7.25.25328 Jul
Jab Harry Met Sejal17.015.2564 Aug
Toilet: EPK13.013.1611 Aug
Bareilly Ki Barfi2.12.4218 Aug
Babumoshai Bandookbaaz2.02.05125 Aug
A Gentleman5.7*4.04*225 Aug
Baadshaho10.4-31 Sep
Shubh Mangal Saavdhan2.2-21 Sep
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117 Comments

  • Hrithik is nothing without his father and you all will see , they will manipulated the box office figure firstday itself .

  • Another January, another Kaho Na Pyaar Hai vs Phir Bhi Dil Hai Hindustani. Another winner for Hrithik and another award. Yawn. Why do others even compete.

  • indicine didn’t post review of Raees coz they know too that how bad the film is ? Most bias site… they posted Kaabil’s reviews by critics but not Raees’s Bias Site

  • I will watch kaabil with my family (5-6 member together) but raees will watch alone because of clash otherwise was no interest. I already know raees has nothing.
    on Saturday – 4-5 member of family will watch kaabil and at most only 2 member will watch raees.
    this ratio is going to be whole runtime in theatre for both movie.
    so in end kaabil will win finally as baajirao mastani.

  • xzone
    January 25, 2017 at 12:09 am
    With the craze and buzz Raees is carrying, had it released in a favourable period it would have done wonder on B.O. (at least on Day 1).
    Simply phenomenal response!!!!

    Lol…. what type of craze and buzz ?! Oh I know that u have written to promote this film and to increase awareness among readers but honestly it ain’t carrying that as much as u have written. So plz stop lying and fooling Neutral audience…. Writing by own doesn’t mean that it’s carrying that much…

  • Would you celebrate a reel life and real life terrorist this Republic Day??

    Only Kaabil this R-Day…

  • Today history will be created Raees
    opening Bumper Kaabil Decent
    papa is crying no to save him
    remember never clash

  • THATS HUGE AMOUNT 21CR.. THAT TO ON NON HOLIDAY…

    BUT IF IT DOES THAT WILL BE AWESOME..

    FOR ME REALISTIC FIGURE WILL BE 18-19 CR FOR RAEES..

    WEEKEND WILL BE 90-100 CR (WOM POSITIVE)

    1ST WEEK WILL BE 130(i.e till wed)

    LIFETIME WILL BE 180 200CR MINIMUM

  • lifetime total for Raees is 175 cr giving it a Blockbuster status …..and kaabil will be Blockbuster at 125cr …really 2 blockbusters with clash its happen 1st time in history of Bollywood really Hrithik already told Raees and Kaabil clash will change all parameters of clash ..
    kaabil cant collection more than 100 without clash it gained hype …

  • raees movie review

    ratings:3.06/5
    Score:50% Positive
    Reviews Counted:8
    Positive:4
    Neutral:2
    Negative:2….
    .
    kaabil movie review

    Ratings:3.8/5
    Score:95% Positive
    Reviews Counted:7
    Positive:6
    Neutral:1
    Negative:0…
    .
    raees to vat ban gayo
    .
    raees to gayo

  • @indicine,hope both the film will become hit atleast.but lol for makkhi fans with holiday he can’t cross 20cr but with clash in nonholiday srk crossed 20cr.

  • ek taraf Dangal,M S Dhoni, Bhaag Milkha bhaag, Neerja,Sarabjeet,Airlift, Budhia born for run, jaise great persons ki Biopic par filme ban rahi aur ye pagal srk Gujarat ke criminal,sharaab maafia jaise bure aadmi ki film choice kia.
    very disappointed. family will neglect this.

  • In KAABIL vs RAEES Clash,

    One film will be sure short Disaster but

    KAABIL will not be that film because

    Above all Dirty Game of RAEES,

    It is MASTERSTROKE of RAKESH ROSHAN that

    He has
    ●Made KAABIL at ₹35Cr Cheapest budget.
    ●Sold KAABIL at ₹42Cr Cheapest price to Indian Distributors.

    THAT MEANS, KAABIL will be
    •●HIT at ₹50Cr
    •●SUPER HIT at ₹70Cr
    •●BLOCKBUSTER at ₹105Cr
    •●ALL TIME BLOCKBUSTER at ₹105Cr+

    More so because just after ₹50Cr earnings, KAABIL will be a HIT. Then KAABIL’s satellite rights will not reduce and so ₹116Cr total sellings through all rights will remain to KAABIL which is more than triple of its Budget means

    232% profits, KAABIL has already gained and Box Office will just add more & more profits to KAABIL but after ₹50 Crore at BOX OFFICE.

    KAABIL SURE SHORT ALL TIME BLOCKBUSTER

  • if indicine’s 21.5 crore comes as true then it will have a very good chance of doing 25 crore net on republic day. then i will have to leave the site as per my promise.
    i will only comeback if tiger zinda hain does 40 crore net on working day with a solo release or 28-30 crore net with a clash with dutt biopic.
    if tubelight creates all time weekend record beating sultan i may comeback, but these are probabilities i may not comeback even after that.
    still keeping my fingers crossed that it will not do 25 crore net on republic day, let’s see what happens.

  • @7:27am bolly fan

    Hey dude, WTH Bhai should do a so called dark thriller/niche film & release it on non holiday? Isn’t it like asking someone to leave his lavish bungalow to leave in a Jhopdi??? 😂😂😂

    Btw, whenever a movie doesn’t work at box office you guys come up with illogical excuses like niche movie, dark thriller, experimental movie and blah blah blah! Grow up man & live in reality.

  • @honest man

    Dude, HNY did 45cr single day business with 3800 screens way back in 2014. It’s 2017 already…. Hnc, Raees must do 35+cr business with 2800 screens on Republic day.

  • Hahaha….. Kabariwalas are predicting 230cr+ lifetime collections for Raees. Will bookmark this page and catch these morons after its end of run.

  • According to boxofficeindia.com, ‘Raees’ has managed a phenomenal ’55-60% occupancy, which is the best since ‘Sultan,’ eclipsing even Aamir Khan’s ‘Dangal’. At some centres, the film is performing even better than ‘Sultan,’ despite of the clash and a non-holiday.

    ‘Kaabil,’ on the other hand, opened to a meagre 20-25% occupancy, though the numbers are expected to soar thanks to word of mouth and the Republic Day holiday.

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