Raees, Kaabil Box Office Prediction

Two films that should never have clashed at the box office are finally releasing after a dignified marketing campaign. The internal slugfest to get the best screens was going on throughout, but it’s business and every producer wants to give his film the best possible release.

The makers of ‘Raees’ on the strength of Shah Rukh Khan’s box office pull and superior promos, have managed to get a wider theatrical release. The other film, ‘Kaabil’ too has got a good release, especially in the south where the Hrithik Roshan factor has ensured a big release.

For SRK and Raees the first target would be to cross the 125 crore mark, which would ensure that the film recovers costs and begins to get into the profitable zone. A good total for a film like ‘Raees’ would be in the 150 crore range and if the film manages to collect more, it would be a solid success for SRK after one outright rejected film (FAN) and an under-performer (Dilwale). A big total, which also means the film finding acceptance amongst the audience, would set him up well to achieve bigger totals with his next film directed by Imtiaz Ali.

For Hrithik, the success of ‘Kaabil’ is going to be very important after the disastrous ‘Mohenjo Daro’. He not only lost the previous clash, but the Ashutosh Gowarikar directed film did not even manage a face-saving total. ‘Kaabil’ being the underdog in the clash, might work in Hrithik’s favour because the expectations of a very big total aren’t there. ‘Kaabil’ would recover when it get into the 80 crore range and a 90-100 crore total would mean the film is a clean box office hit.

Factors in favour of Raees:

  • Promos: Raees has had some of the best promos for a Shah Rukh Khan film in a very long time, we’d have to go back to Excel’s own Don 2 for the last time when a trailer of his film got the kind of response that Raees has.
  • SRK: The legend himself. One of the biggest stars in the country, someone who guarantees a box office initial and the advance booking that Raees has got once again proves that SRK is one of the most loved stars we have in the industry.
  • Dialogues: Raees has had the most impactful dialogues in a Hindi film in a very long time. It’s been nearly 20 months since some of the dialogues were first heard in the teaser and the freshness is still intact.
  • Nawazuddin Siddiqui: He’s not someone who can pull a film on his own, but he adds tremendous value in a big film. It wouldn’t be surprising if a section of the audience come just to watch him take on SRK in the film.

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Factors against Raees:

  • Rahul Dholakia: Three films, three disasters. He’s won critical acclaim for one of his films, but directing a big film like ‘Raees’ is a different game altogether and he remains untested. If he hasn’t done his job well, the film won’t work.
  • Excel Entertainment: It’s a banner that hasn’t made a single massy film, most of their films are niche and targeted at the multiplex audience. Their last ‘clean-hit’ was Shah Rukh Khan’s Don 2 more than 5 years ago.
  • Two other minor negatives are; the long delay and reshoots, the presence of Sunny Leone, liquor trade etc could mean the family audience might not come in big numbers.
Raees vs Kaabil

Raees vs Kaabil

Factors in favour of Kaabil:

  • Hrithik Roshan: The superstar is going through a career low after the ‘Mohenjo Daro’ debacle, but he still has a strong fan-following. Prior to failure of his previous film, he was the only non-Khan in the industry to topple opening day, single day records and lifetime records.
  • Rakesh Roshan: From the looks of it, senior Roshan has played it well even though he is competing against a very big film. He knows the pulse of the Indian audience better than most in the industry. ‘Kaabil’ is his space too, the classic formula of good vs evil, the mighty vs the innocent.
  • Promos: The 2nd trailer and promos that the makers released towards the end of their campaign has worked quite well. Not comparable to Raees, but good nonetheless.
  • Economics: Kaabil doesn’t need to collect a lot to recover costs.

Factors against Kaabil:

  • Competition: It isn’t going to be easy for the film if Raees finds acceptance. Even if both films are good, Kaabil will have to be better.
  • Sanjay Gupta: He has a better track-record than Rahul Dholakia, but his success-ratio as a director is very poor. Most of his films have flopped.
  • A minor negative would be the darkish thriller genre, although the concept seems to be quite similar to Ghajini, the Aamir Khan film was way more colourful and happier looking which helps in bringing the family audience to theatres.

IndicineFBO: We expect Raees to collect Rs 21.5 crore on its opening day, which would be a similar total as Shah Rukh’s last film Dilwale. For Kaabil, the opening should be in the 11.5 crore range, which would be a fairly good total if the film can grow on word-of-mouth during the extended 5-day weekend.

MovieDay 1OfficialBuzzDate
Simran2.6-115 Sep
Lucknow Central1.8-115 Sep
Bhoomi3.5-222 Sep
Haseena Parkar1.0-122 Sep
Judwaa 215.5-828 Sep
Ok Jaanu5.64.08213 Jan
Kaabil*11.510.43525 Jan
Raees*21.520.42925 Jan
Jolly LLB 214.2513.2610 Feb
Rangoon6.35.0224 Feb
Commando 24.04.2523 Feb
Badrinath Ki
Dulhania
11.612.25710 Mar
Phillauri4.04.02224 Mar
Begum Jaan3.13.94314 Apr
Noor2.21.54121 Apr
Baahubali 233411028 Apr
Sarkar 33.02.0212 May
Meri Pyaari Bindu2.71.75212 May
Half Girlfriend9.210.27619 May
Raabta6.55.6149 Jun
Tubelight2721.15823 Jun
Mom3.12.937 Jul
Guest In London1.71.527 Jul
Jagga Jasoos8.88.57414 Jul
Munna Michael8.26.65321 Jul
Mubarakan7.25.25328 Jul
Jab Harry Met Sejal17.015.2564 Aug
Toilet: EPK13.013.1611 Aug
Bareilly Ki Barfi2.12.4218 Aug
Babumoshai Bandookbaaz2.02.05125 Aug
A Gentleman5.7*4.04*225 Aug
Baadshaho10.4-31 Sep
Shubh Mangal Saavdhan2.2-21 Sep
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117 Comments

  • @Thanks alot Indicine advance booking for Raees is tereffic and today Raees Makers had special screening and everyone praising the film alot like 4.5/5 4/5 like that and they are saying Srks acting phenomenal and Nawazs too.

  • Raees is the remake
    Shoot out at wadala
    Shiot out at Lokhanwala
    Once upon time in Mumbai

    Crap Again like five in row craps like Fan, DZ, Dilwale, HNY & CE

    so
    Even God can’t save SRK & RAEES from complete washout.

    KAABIL All Time Blockbuster

  • Predictability is a for that has scarred many a film, and Raees is unfortunately one of its biggest victims. The rise and fall of a ganglord, whose skirmishes with police and politicians lead to his downfall is not exactly a novel idea. But a different treatment would have worked wonders on any stale story. And here’s where Rahul Dholakia falters big time. Despite providing a larger than life image to his hero, Dholakia fails to make the narrative engaging and coherent for the audience he is targeting. It’s interesting to draw parallels to another gangster drama, Once Upon A Time in Mumbai , with Raees as both have similar plots set in similar period setting. But the former knows its audiences and accepts its masala persona. Raees , meanwhile, is stuck in a limbo of whether to be a realistic drama or a masala entertainer but doesn’t do justice to either. The scenes of Raees’ ascension to power, how he hoodwinks the police and wins an election from jail are written in a very lazy manner. The terrorism angle that should have been the tension-building twist turns out to be another yawn-worthy plot device for the writers who seemed clueless as to how to end this. However the biggest letdown of Shah Rukh Khan’s Raees is the love track between Raees and his wife, that looks like an afterthought than a proper track. There is zero chemistry between SRK and Mahira, even with random insertion of songs here and there. Mahira mostly has the role of a decorative showpiece, while talented actors like Zeeshan Ayyub and Atul Kulkarni are sadly wasted. The editing is below par, while the music and the art direction are ho-hum.
    Above all, it is Shah Rukh Khan who disappointed me the most. Upstaged many a time by his co-stars, we feel the actor is trying too hard, but the movie does not offer him anything exceptional to do. Even with the those kohl eyes, we can only see Shah Rukh Khan the actor and not the character in the role. His character might be a do-gooder to his people, but we can’t help but see through Majmudar’s eyes and think of him as man who gained power and money through illegal means. The movie wants us to sympathise with him, but gives us no good reason or a brilliant scene to do so.

    Just 2.5 Star…. I think, I have wasted my Rs 250 on this movie….

  • There is no way Kaabil will collect 11 + crs infact it will collect more than 13 crores and Raess opening will be same as FAN’s or less than that (considering clash factor and the better response for trailer/promos compare to FAN).

  • I don’t understand y buzz is still 8 ?? I mean the buzz is out of the world for raees… !! By the way taran adarsh gave 4 stars so get ready for first blockbuster of 2017

  • Raees is same films that audience are already watched before.

    We watched OUTIM, shoot out of wadala, dabangg and agneepath. But srk supporter are never accepting that facts.

    Raees will be srk’s 3rd disaster in row and 5th flop in row.

    RAEES disaster ke baad career is over

    KAABIL – 16cr 1st day – 160cr – bb

    RAEES – 15cr 1st day – 84cr – disaster

  • Dont forget tomorrow is a working day and there is no way both movies could collect more than Dangal’s opening day or touch even 30 crs. So According to indicine Raees + Kaabil should be 33 crs which will be more than 3.5 crs than Dangal’s opening day.

  • Raees :
    What I was said king is back so its bumper opening above 20 crore despite clash , his fan following never underestimate . Opening is depends on stardom . Yes srk film opening collection are good but after weekend crash . Hope this time won’t disappoint . Lifetime 140 .

    Kaabil :
    Second promo was impressive , one song was the best I.e kisi se pyar ho jaye . After debacle of MD he is back , reviews are excellent it will help to film . Anything above 14 will be excellent . Total 120 superhit tag .

  • I think for the sake of their films one should have postpone their film
    You can not have two critically acclaimed films with mega stars realesing in Jan
    If it was eid or Christmas then okay
    Also if SRK wanted a clash then y postpone rid would have better coz raees is way better then sultan

  • @Indicine You Guys have Posted the Reviews and Rating Of Kaabil in Advance..Please Do Post the Ratings and Reviews of Raees as Press Screening is finished and Most Websites have Already Published their Reviews.You should be Fair and act Neutral and leave the rest on Audience to Decide.

    Waiting…

  • Really surprised by the 20+crs of raees…
    But we all know that indicine just cant go wrong.
    Best of luck to both films and My humble request to both fan bases “please, let this clash happen in peace and in a dignified way”

  • I don’t know many sites, not just Indicine, use the term ‘career low’ for Hrithik after MJD’s failure, when he delivered 4 big hits prior to MJD (ZNMD, Agneepath, Krrish 3, BB). But, nobody uses such term for SRK, whose last film did business in only 80cr range as a solo release & good promos (unlike MJD), Dilwale (huge starcast) lost the clash to Ranveer starrer, HNY under-performed for a multistarrer Diwali release, JTHJ under-performed (Yash Chopra directed film), Ra.One (most marketed Indian film ever) under-performed, was expected to break or at least challenge 3 Idiots’ record. Chennai Express is his only film which lived upto its potential in last 7 years.

    This post wasn’t specifically for this article, I have seen that term in many articles, which surprises me, because he was going through a much worse phase in 2001-02. Now, when his last film failed, which many people from inside already knew it was destined to fail before its release, he’s suddenly going through his ‘worst phase’. It’s not true.

  • @Nipun : Why are you so obsessed with critic ratings ? Dont you know it is audience who decides the fate of the movie ? You remeber Guzaarish ? When you will learn ?

  • Decide not to watch Raees because of Pak actress & boycott it because next day is Republic Day, so love ur country & watch Kaabil, our own shudh desi movie. Jai hind

  • @TIger- you sound everytime mean when other actors movie releases. Try to be appreciative.
    You are making fun of Kaabil while it has been appreciated by all the critics. Movie collecting above 100 crores is not the only criteria. But perhaps that could be the reason Salman does’t experiment with different genre seen by choice of his movies. While Hrithik and SRK both have been experimenting with their movies.
    Just let me ask has Salman done any dark thriller in his career. Please answer honestly as we all know that dark thriller genre movies are not huge grossers in India. Why not ask your favourite superstar to do that movie which i am sure he will never do because that will not cater to his audience during EID. Yashraj films made a good decision to release Sultan ahead of Dangal and forced SRK to postponed it otherwise had that been released post Dangal or after that,it would not have been even the blockbuster. Yashraj announced and planned Sultan after Dangal went on floor so they finished the movie shoot in 3 months and planned for the release 5 months before Dangal to which they stucked. By the way I liked Sultan when it released but post Dangal, Sultan looked below average.
    Best of Luck for Tubelight because thats his only upcoming movie which looks interesting.

  • kaabil hit-superhit will beat lifetime collections of agneepath. Raees superhit-blockbuster possibly beat lifetime of happy new year.

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