Raees, Kaabil Box Office Prediction

Two films that should never have clashed at the box office are finally releasing after a dignified marketing campaign. The internal slugfest to get the best screens was going on throughout, but it’s business and every producer wants to give his film the best possible release.

The makers of ‘Raees’ on the strength of Shah Rukh Khan’s box office pull and superior promos, have managed to get a wider theatrical release. The other film, ‘Kaabil’ too has got a good release, especially in the south where the Hrithik Roshan factor has ensured a big release.

For SRK and Raees the first target would be to cross the 125 crore mark, which would ensure that the film recovers costs and begins to get into the profitable zone. A good total for a film like ‘Raees’ would be in the 150 crore range and if the film manages to collect more, it would be a solid success for SRK after one outright rejected film (FAN) and an under-performer (Dilwale). A big total, which also means the film finding acceptance amongst the audience, would set him up well to achieve bigger totals with his next film directed by Imtiaz Ali.

For Hrithik, the success of ‘Kaabil’ is going to be very important after the disastrous ‘Mohenjo Daro’. He not only lost the previous clash, but the Ashutosh Gowarikar directed film did not even manage a face-saving total. ‘Kaabil’ being the underdog in the clash, might work in Hrithik’s favour because the expectations of a very big total aren’t there. ‘Kaabil’ would recover when it get into the 80 crore range and a 90-100 crore total would mean the film is a clean box office hit.

Factors in favour of Raees:

  • Promos: Raees has had some of the best promos for a Shah Rukh Khan film in a very long time, we’d have to go back to Excel’s own Don 2 for the last time when a trailer of his film got the kind of response that Raees has.
  • SRK: The legend himself. One of the biggest stars in the country, someone who guarantees a box office initial and the advance booking that Raees has got once again proves that SRK is one of the most loved stars we have in the industry.
  • Dialogues: Raees has had the most impactful dialogues in a Hindi film in a very long time. It’s been nearly 20 months since some of the dialogues were first heard in the teaser and the freshness is still intact.
  • Nawazuddin Siddiqui: He’s not someone who can pull a film on his own, but he adds tremendous value in a big film. It wouldn’t be surprising if a section of the audience come just to watch him take on SRK in the film.

Factors against Raees:

  • Rahul Dholakia: Three films, three disasters. He’s won critical acclaim for one of his films, but directing a big film like ‘Raees’ is a different game altogether and he remains untested. If he hasn’t done his job well, the film won’t work.
  • Excel Entertainment: It’s a banner that hasn’t made a single massy film, most of their films are niche and targeted at the multiplex audience. Their last ‘clean-hit’ was Shah Rukh Khan’s Don 2 more than 5 years ago.
  • Two other minor negatives are; the long delay and reshoots, the presence of Sunny Leone, liquor trade etc could mean the family audience might not come in big numbers.
Raees vs Kaabil

Raees vs Kaabil

Factors in favour of Kaabil:

  • Hrithik Roshan: The superstar is going through a career low after the ‘Mohenjo Daro’ debacle, but he still has a strong fan-following. Prior to failure of his previous film, he was the only non-Khan in the industry to topple opening day, single day records and lifetime records.
  • Rakesh Roshan: From the looks of it, senior Roshan has played it well even though he is competing against a very big film. He knows the pulse of the Indian audience better than most in the industry. ‘Kaabil’ is his space too, the classic formula of good vs evil, the mighty vs the innocent.
  • Promos: The 2nd trailer and promos that the makers released towards the end of their campaign has worked quite well. Not comparable to Raees, but good nonetheless.
  • Economics: Kaabil doesn’t need to collect a lot to recover costs.

Factors against Kaabil:

  • Competition: It isn’t going to be easy for the film if Raees finds acceptance. Even if both films are good, Kaabil will have to be better.
  • Sanjay Gupta: He has a better track-record than Rahul Dholakia, but his success-ratio as a director is very poor. Most of his films have flopped.
  • A minor negative would be the darkish thriller genre, although the concept seems to be quite similar to Ghajini, the Aamir Khan film was way more colourful and happier looking which helps in bringing the family audience to theatres.

IndicineFBO: We expect Raees to collect Rs 21.5 crore on its opening day, which would be a similar total as Shah Rukh’s last film Dilwale. For Kaabil, the opening should be in the 11.5 crore range, which would be a fairly good total if the film can grow on word-of-mouth during the extended 5-day weekend.

MovieDay 1OfficialBuzzDate
Simran2.6-115 Sep
Lucknow Central1.8-115 Sep
Bhoomi3.5-222 Sep
Haseena Parkar1.0-122 Sep
Judwaa 215.5-828 Sep
Ok Jaanu5.64.08213 Jan
Kaabil*11.510.43525 Jan
Raees*21.520.42925 Jan
Jolly LLB 214.2513.2610 Feb
Rangoon6.35.0224 Feb
Commando 24.04.2523 Feb
Badrinath Ki
Dulhania
11.612.25710 Mar
Phillauri4.04.02224 Mar
Begum Jaan3.13.94314 Apr
Noor2.21.54121 Apr
Baahubali 233411028 Apr
Sarkar 33.02.0212 May
Meri Pyaari Bindu2.71.75212 May
Half Girlfriend9.210.27619 May
Raabta6.55.6149 Jun
Tubelight2721.15823 Jun
Mom3.12.937 Jul
Guest In London1.71.527 Jul
Jagga Jasoos8.88.57414 Jul
Munna Michael8.26.65321 Jul
Mubarakan7.25.25328 Jul
Jab Harry Met Sejal17.015.2564 Aug
Toilet: EPK13.013.1611 Aug
Bareilly Ki Barfi2.12.4218 Aug
Babumoshai Bandookbaaz2.02.05125 Aug
A Gentleman5.7*4.04*225 Aug
Baadshaho10.4-31 Sep
Shubh Mangal Saavdhan2.2-21 Sep
Advertisements

117 Comments

  • Raees will beat the record of Chennai express whether it is Domistic record , overseas record or worldwide record and that too on such a dull period and with clash against Kaabil !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Jo prediction ki sahi wo sahi, Jo prediction ki ghalat wo ghalat, ise zeyaadah kabhi socha nahi !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Raees will be SRK’s best trending film since Chake DE India. Super duper blockbuster !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Shine on Raees bhai !!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Remember this comment everyone here that Raees is going to win this clash by a very very big margin !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Opening Raees > kaabil
    Weekend Raees > kaabil
    5 extended weekend Raees > kaabil
    1st week Raees > Kaabil
    Lifetime in India Raees > kaabil
    Overseas opening Raees > Kaabil
    Weekend Raees > Kaabil
    Lifetime Raees > Kaabil
    In fact in every way Raees will emerge winner in every way !!!!

  • I just want Raees to release in both India and Pakistan peacefully … nothing else matters more than this at least for me !!
    Then here is my prediction for Raees bhai
    Wednesday – 22+ crores
    Thursday – 27 crores
    Friday – 20+ crores
    Saturday – 20+ crores
    Sunday – 20+ crores
    5 extended weekend – 100+ crores ( could be 114 crores too )
    1st week – 140+ crores
    Lifetime : 235 crores
    Verdict – Surefire Blockbuster .
    Overseas : $ 16 to 20+ millions
    Worldwide : 430+ gross
    Wishing every SRKian a monstrous success for Raees !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • “Raees is a film that will work for all age groups, for men and women, for cities and towns, for masses and classes. It is an extremely entertaining film right from the beginning.

  • if Raees collects 21.5 cr on opening day, then I will be the happiest person on this earth.
    It’s almost equal 27-28 cr without clash.
    Hope your words turn true Indicine…!!! Fingers crossed.

  • Bollywood movies ki EK bohut badi Site (INDICINE) ne kaha tha ki STARDOM OPENING DAY AND WEEKEND COLLECTIONS SE PATA CHALTA HAI…..AND LIFETIME COLLECTION DEPENDS UPON WOM

  • Raees will be the first blockbuster of 2017.
    Kaabil will be the first disaster of 2017.
    In fact kaabil will be rejected by the audience !!!!!
    Pray for kaabil 😢

  • Raees is getting tremendous response from critics , now no can stop him raees is all set to win the b.o and heart too

  • 21.5cr+11.5cr = 33cr.

    That’s mean combined opening day collections of Raees & Kaabil will be less than Sultan’s 4th day (Saturday) collections.

    ##Too Much Funnnnnn!!!

  • /*
    Rahul Dholakia: Three films, three disasters. He’s won critical acclaim for one of his films, but directing a big film like ‘Raees’ is a different game altogether and he remains untested. If he hasn’t done his job well, the film won’t work.
    */

    Same is my concern :-(

    But I am sure Dholakia will taste his first commercial success riding on SRK’s star power.

  • Raees will be initially benefited by outstanding promotion & SRK’s stardom but only till sunday. From Monday onwards both the films will work only on story, screenplay & direction an that wil eventually decide the winner of this clash. In 2015 Dilwale had a massive opening over Bajirao Mastani but eventually content took over the stardom over weekdays and Dilwale could manage only 140cr whereas Bajirao Mastani crossed 180cr despite having Ranveer Singh who doesn’t have a stardom like SRK.

  • #Raees will open to 21 – 22 cr.
    #Kaabil will open to 11 – 12 cr.
    #Raees Lifetime will be 150+ cr.
    #Kaabil Lifetime will be 100+ cr.
    #Raees will be Super Hit
    #Kaabil will be Hit
    #Raees will win the clash ….
    Ab Dangal Ho Ga
    #AamirSrkRules

  • The people associated with Kaabil are all mean and cheap.
    I want it to work only for Hrithik – a man with golden heart. And I genuinely wish that both the movies emerge successful at B.O.
    It’s achievable and not impossible – because scale and budget of both the movies are different so they don’t have to collect equal money to emerge victorious.

  • Roshans have gone to such an extent that they have begged celebrities to praise Kaabil because of utmost desperation !!!
    R.I.P kaabil !!!
    Nothing can save it !!!!!
    Another flop for hrithik after epic blockbuster Mohenjo Daro !!!!!!!

  • /* 90-100 crore total would mean the film is a clean box office hit. */

    But jaadootards were expecting blockbuster verdict with 100cr collections… 😂😂😂

  • Hrithik is the only non-Khan in the industry to topple opening day, single day records and lifetime records.- This is 100% genuine and no one can deny.

  • lol it’s genre of film which ensures excellent opening if HR would have done agneepath type of stuff ,Miya bhai ki hawa tight ho jati.

    It’s getting bad reviews….

    IndianExprs 2.5
    DecanChronical 2
    BolywodLife 2.5
    MvieTalkies 2.5
    Rediff -2.5
    .
    Will crash after 1st day.

  • Seems an accurate prediction as far as opening day is concerned.
    Who would have last laugh,time would tell.
    Best of Luck to both !

  • My predictions

    KAABIL
    Excellent .. 271 Cr* | 180 Cr°
    Mixed .. 190 Cr* | 126 Cr°

    RAEES
    Excellent .. 236 Cr* | 166 Cr°
    Mixed .. 165 Cr* | 116 Cr°

    Solo (*) & Clash (°)

    Since it is releasing on normal day (i.e a bad sign in Clash) with following National holiday i.e Republic Day and then a Normal weekend. So its most important first weekend (5Days) will be huge.

    [Read my comment for 2017’s Whole Predictions click link https://t.co/9BM2ilx7gc%5D

Leave a Comment