Two films that should never have clashed at the box office are finally releasing after a dignified marketing campaign. The internal slugfest to get the best screens was going on throughout, but it’s business and every producer wants to give his film the best possible release.
The makers of ‘Raees’ on the strength of Shah Rukh Khan’s box office pull and superior promos, have managed to get a wider theatrical release. The other film, ‘Kaabil’ too has got a good release, especially in the south where the Hrithik Roshan factor has ensured a big release.
For SRK and Raees the first target would be to cross the 125 crore mark, which would ensure that the film recovers costs and begins to get into the profitable zone. A good total for a film like ‘Raees’ would be in the 150 crore range and if the film manages to collect more, it would be a solid success for SRK after one outright rejected film (FAN) and an under-performer (Dilwale). A big total, which also means the film finding acceptance amongst the audience, would set him up well to achieve bigger totals with his next film directed by Imtiaz Ali.
For Hrithik, the success of ‘Kaabil’ is going to be very important after the disastrous ‘Mohenjo Daro’. He not only lost the previous clash, but the Ashutosh Gowarikar directed film did not even manage a face-saving total. ‘Kaabil’ being the underdog in the clash, might work in Hrithik’s favour because the expectations of a very big total aren’t there. ‘Kaabil’ would recover when it get into the 80 crore range and a 90-100 crore total would mean the film is a clean box office hit.
Factors in favour of Raees:
- Promos: Raees has had some of the best promos for a Shah Rukh Khan film in a very long time, we’d have to go back to Excel’s own Don 2 for the last time when a trailer of his film got the kind of response that Raees has.
- SRK: The legend himself. One of the biggest stars in the country, someone who guarantees a box office initial and the advance booking that Raees has got once again proves that SRK is one of the most loved stars we have in the industry.
- Dialogues: Raees has had the most impactful dialogues in a Hindi film in a very long time. It’s been nearly 20 months since some of the dialogues were first heard in the teaser and the freshness is still intact.
- Nawazuddin Siddiqui: He’s not someone who can pull a film on his own, but he adds tremendous value in a big film. It wouldn’t be surprising if a section of the audience come just to watch him take on SRK in the film.
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Factors against Raees:
- Rahul Dholakia: Three films, three disasters. He’s won critical acclaim for one of his films, but directing a big film like ‘Raees’ is a different game altogether and he remains untested. If he hasn’t done his job well, the film won’t work.
- Excel Entertainment: It’s a banner that hasn’t made a single massy film, most of their films are niche and targeted at the multiplex audience. Their last ‘clean-hit’ was Shah Rukh Khan’s Don 2 more than 5 years ago.
- Two other minor negatives are; the long delay and reshoots, the presence of Sunny Leone, liquor trade etc could mean the family audience might not come in big numbers.
Factors in favour of Kaabil:
- Hrithik Roshan: The superstar is going through a career low after the ‘Mohenjo Daro’ debacle, but he still has a strong fan-following. Prior to failure of his previous film, he was the only non-Khan in the industry to topple opening day, single day records and lifetime records.
- Rakesh Roshan: From the looks of it, senior Roshan has played it well even though he is competing against a very big film. He knows the pulse of the Indian audience better than most in the industry. ’Kaabil’ is his space too, the classic formula of good vs evil, the mighty vs the innocent.
- Promos: The 2nd trailer and promos that the makers released towards the end of their campaign has worked quite well. Not comparable to Raees, but good nonetheless.
- Economics: Kaabil doesn’t need to collect a lot to recover costs.
Factors against Kaabil:
- Competition: It isn’t going to be easy for the film if Raees finds acceptance. Even if both films are good, Kaabil will have to be better.
- Sanjay Gupta: He has a better track-record than Rahul Dholakia, but his success-ratio as a director is very poor. Most of his films have flopped.
- A minor negative would be the darkish thriller genre, although the concept seems to be quite similar to Ghajini, the Aamir Khan film was way more colourful and happier looking which helps in bringing the family audience to theatres.
IndicineFBO: We expect Raees to collect Rs 21.5 crore on its opening day, which would be a similar total as Shah Rukh’s last film Dilwale. For Kaabil, the opening should be in the 11.5 crore range, which would be a fairly good total if the film can grow on word-of-mouth during the extended 5-day weekend.
Movie | Day 1 | Official | Buzz | Date |
Simran | 2.6 | - | 1 | 15 Sep |
Lucknow Central | 1.8 | - | 1 | 15 Sep |
Bhoomi | 3.5 | - | 2 | 22 Sep |
Haseena Parkar | 1.0 | - | 1 | 22 Sep |
Judwaa 2 | 15.5 | - | 8 | 28 Sep |
Ok Jaanu | 5.6 | 4.08 | 2 | 13 Jan |
Kaabil* | 11.5 | 10.43 | 5 | 25 Jan |
Raees* | 21.5 | 20.42 | 9 | 25 Jan |
Jolly LLB 2 | 14.25 | 13.2 | 6 | 10 Feb |
Rangoon | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2 | 24 Feb |
Commando 2 | 4.0 | 4.25 | 2 | 3 Feb |
Badrinath Ki Dulhania | 11.6 | 12.25 | 7 | 10 Mar |
Phillauri | 4.0 | 4.02 | 2 | 24 Mar |
Begum Jaan | 3.1 | 3.94 | 3 | 14 Apr |
Noor | 2.2 | 1.54 | 1 | 21 Apr |
Baahubali 2 | 33 | 41 | 10 | 28 Apr |
Sarkar 3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2 | 12 May |
Meri Pyaari Bindu | 2.7 | 1.75 | 2 | 12 May |
Half Girlfriend | 9.2 | 10.27 | 6 | 19 May |
Raabta | 6.5 | 5.61 | 4 | 9 Jun |
Tubelight | 27 | 21.15 | 8 | 23 Jun |
Mom | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3 | 7 Jul |
Guest In London | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 7 Jul |
Jagga Jasoos | 8.8 | 8.57 | 4 | 14 Jul |
Munna Michael | 8.2 | 6.65 | 3 | 21 Jul |
Mubarakan | 7.2 | 5.25 | 3 | 28 Jul |
Jab Harry Met Sejal | 17.0 | 15.25 | 6 | 4 Aug |
Toilet: EPK | 13.0 | 13.1 | 6 | 11 Aug |
Bareilly Ki Barfi | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2 | 18 Aug |
Babumoshai Bandookbaaz | 2.0 | 2.05 | 1 | 25 Aug |
A Gentleman | 5.7* | 4.04* | 2 | 25 Aug |
Baadshaho | 10.4 | - | 3 | 1 Sep |
Shubh Mangal Saavdhan | 2.2 | - | 2 | 1 Sep |
Raees will beat the record of Chennai express whether it is Domistic record , overseas record or worldwide record and that too on such a dull period and with clash against Kaabil !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jo prediction ki sahi wo sahi, Jo prediction ki ghalat wo ghalat, ise zeyaadah kabhi socha nahi !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Raees will be SRK’s best trending film since Chake DE India. Super duper blockbuster !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Shine on Raees bhai !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Remember this comment everyone here that Raees is going to win this clash by a very very big margin !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Opening Raees > kaabil
Weekend Raees > kaabil
5 extended weekend Raees > kaabil
1st week Raees > Kaabil
Lifetime in India Raees > kaabil
Overseas opening Raees > Kaabil
Weekend Raees > Kaabil
Lifetime Raees > Kaabil
In fact in every way Raees will emerge winner in every way !!!!
I just want Raees to release in both India and Pakistan peacefully … nothing else matters more than this at least for me !!
Then here is my prediction for Raees bhai
Wednesday – 22+ crores
Thursday – 27 crores
Friday – 20+ crores
Saturday – 20+ crores
Sunday – 20+ crores
5 extended weekend – 100+ crores ( could be 114 crores too )
1st week – 140+ crores
Lifetime : 235 crores
Verdict – Surefire Blockbuster .
Overseas : $ 16 to 20+ millions
Worldwide : 430+ gross
Wishing every SRKian a monstrous success for Raees !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“Raees is a film that will work for all age groups, for men and women, for cities and towns, for masses and classes. It is an extremely entertaining film right from the beginning.
if Raees collects 21.5 cr on opening day, then I will be the happiest person on this earth.
It’s almost equal 27-28 cr without clash.
Hope your words turn true Indicine…!!! Fingers crossed.
You are predicting Raees to take almost double initial as that of Kaabil.
A bold prediction I must say !!!!
Bollywood movies ki EK bohut badi Site (INDICINE) ne kaha tha ki STARDOM OPENING DAY AND WEEKEND COLLECTIONS SE PATA CHALTA HAI…..AND LIFETIME COLLECTION DEPENDS UPON WOM
Raees will win. SRK is back haters.
Raees will be the first blockbuster of 2017.
Kaabil will be the first disaster of 2017.
In fact kaabil will be rejected by the audience !!!!!
Pray for kaabil ?
Raees is getting tremendous response from critics , now no can stop him raees is all set to win the b.o and heart too
21.5cr+11.5cr = 33cr.
That’s mean combined opening day collections of Raees & Kaabil will be less than Sultan’s 4th day (Saturday) collections.
##Too Much Funnnnnn!!!
Hope SRK Nails it this time
/*
Rahul Dholakia: Three films, three disasters. He’s won critical acclaim for one of his films, but directing a big film like ‘Raees’ is a different game altogether and he remains untested. If he hasn’t done his job well, the film won’t work.
*/
Same is my concern :-(
But I am sure Dholakia will taste his first commercial success riding on SRK’s star power.
Negative reviews for raees but I’m sure audience reviews will be better like sultan.
150-180cr is on the card.
Raees will be initially benefited by outstanding promotion & SRK’s stardom but only till sunday. From Monday onwards both the films will work only on story, screenplay & direction an that wil eventually decide the winner of this clash. In 2015 Dilwale had a massive opening over Bajirao Mastani but eventually content took over the stardom over weekdays and Dilwale could manage only 140cr whereas Bajirao Mastani crossed 180cr despite having Ranveer Singh who doesn’t have a stardom like SRK.
My Prediction Kaabil 14 cr for sure.
it should bumper opening
21.5 crs?
I think its too big to happen..
I wil go with 18-19 crs for raees and 12-13 crs for kaabil..
#Raees will open to 21 – 22 cr.
#Kaabil will open to 11 – 12 cr.
#Raees Lifetime will be 150+ cr.
#Kaabil Lifetime will be 100+ cr.
#Raees will be Super Hit
#Kaabil will be Hit
#Raees will win the clash ….
Ab Dangal Ho Ga
#AamirSrkRules
my prediction for raees is 23cr+ and kaabil 12cr
25cr likh le for raees
The people associated with Kaabil are all mean and cheap.
I want it to work only for Hrithik – a man with golden heart. And I genuinely wish that both the movies emerge successful at B.O.
It’s achievable and not impossible – because scale and budget of both the movies are different so they don’t have to collect equal money to emerge victorious.
Roshans have gone to such an extent that they have begged celebrities to praise Kaabil because of utmost desperation !!!
R.I.P kaabil !!!
Nothing can save it !!!!!
Another flop for hrithik after epic blockbuster Mohenjo Daro !!!!!!!
let’s see then ;)
my prediction is
Raees: 1st day-23cr
lifetime- 160+
kaabil: 1st day- 11 cr
lifetime- 100+
/* 90-100 crore total would mean the film is a clean box office hit. */
But jaadootards were expecting blockbuster verdict with 100cr collections… ???
Hrithik is the only non-Khan in the industry to topple opening day, single day records and lifetime records.- This is 100% genuine and no one can deny.
lol it’s genre of film which ensures excellent opening if HR would have done agneepath type of stuff ,Miya bhai ki hawa tight ho jati.
It’s getting bad reviews….
IndianExprs 2.5
DecanChronical 2
BolywodLife 2.5
MvieTalkies 2.5
Rediff -2.5
.
Will crash after 1st day.
Seems an accurate prediction as far as opening day is concerned.
Who would have last laugh,time would tell.
Best of Luck to both !
“Butterflies in stomach” moment for me. Less than 10 hours remaining.
Fingers crossed!!!!!
My predictions
KAABIL
Excellent .. 271 Cr* | 180 Cr°
Mixed .. 190 Cr* | 126 Cr°
RAEES
Excellent .. 236 Cr* | 166 Cr°
Mixed .. 165 Cr* | 116 Cr°
Solo (*) & Clash (°)
Since it is releasing on normal day (i.e a bad sign in Clash) with following National holiday i.e Republic Day and then a Normal weekend. So its most important first weekend (5Days) will be huge.
[Read my comment for 2017’s Whole Predictions click link https://t.co/9BM2ilx7gc%5D