PK HIT or FLOP: Box Office Prediction

The most keenly-awaited film of 2014 is finally here. PK hits theatres in less than 10 hours from now and expectations are at an all-time high. Business has hit rock-bottom in the last 6 weeks or so, what with ‘The Shaukeens’, ‘Kill Dil’, ‘Happy Ending’, ‘Ungli’ and ‘Action Jackson’ all failing to recover costs at the box office. The last hope of the year is PK

starring Aamir Khan and Anushka Sharma, directed by the most successful director in the industry Rajkumar Hirani.

The audience will walk into theatres tomorrow expecting a classic, a wholesome entertainer with a message. The trade has pinned its hopes on a 250 crore plus grosser. Will PK deliver? It should. But when the expectations are so high, the chances of disappointment are higher, something that both Hirani and Aamir are well aware of.

Trade sources say, the film is set to get a record release tomorrow, especially at multiplexes. The screen count at plexes is right up there with big releases like Happy New Year and Kick. But at mass centres, PK is releasing at fewer theatres. The screen count is nowhere close to 5000 screens, reported by UTV earlier this week.

The runtime at 2 hours 33 minutes is just about perfect for a big release like PK. The music hasn’t done too well, but that has been the case with every Hirani film so far. The only problem for PK could be the response that it gets at mass-centres, where it could rely on word-of-mouth publicity.

The average all India ticket price is higher than both Happy New Year and Kick.

We expect the film to collect around 32-33 crore on its opening day, which would be excellent for a non-holiday release. Circuits like Mumbai, Mysore, West Bengal, Delhi/UP, Andhra/Nizam could touch record levels, while mass centres are likely to be lower than Dhoom 3. In Tamilnadu/Kerala circuit, business could be affected by Rajnikanth’s Lingaa which released last weekend, while night shows in North India could be hit by the cold wave.

If the word-of-mouth is excellent, PK could challenge the highest collections on a single day on Sunday. Thursday is a national holiday for Christmas, which will further boost the first week collections.

IF VERY GOOD (excellent word-of-mouth like 3 Idiots!)

• Day 1 - 33 cr
• Day 2 - 37 cr
• Day 3 - 43 cr (Sunday)
• Weekend - 113 cr
• First Week – 190 cr
• Final - 280 cr+ (All Time Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

• Day 1 – 32 cr
• Day 2 - 34 cr
• Day 3 - 36 cr (Sunday)
• Weekend - 102 cr
• First Week - 165 cr
• Final – 210 cr (Blockbuster)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

• Day 1 – 32 cr
• Day 2 - 28 cr
• Day 3 - 30 cr (Sunday)
• Weekend - 90 cr
• First Week – 135 cr
• Final - 160 cr (Hit)

Overall, the immensely high expectations that PK carries could go against the film, if the content doesn’t live upto expectations. Economics-wise, PK is a safe film that has been made on a much lower budget as compared to films like Bang Bang, Dhoom 3 and Happy New Year. Aamir Khan hasn’t charged a fee for PK, he would instead get a share from profits. Most people in the trade that we spoke to, expect PK to either be a outstandingly good film that will go from strength-to-strength or crash after a good opening if the film isn’t as good as we all expect it to be.

What are your expectations from PK? Hit or Flop? Blockbuster or an all time grosser like 3 Idiots? Tell us in the comments section below.