PK HIT or FLOP: Box Office Prediction

The most keenly-awaited film of 2014 is finally here. PK hits theatres in less than 10 hours from now and expectations are at an all-time high. Business has hit rock-bottom in the last 6 weeks or so, what with ‘The Shaukeens’, ‘Kill Dil’, ‘Happy Ending’, ‘Ungli’ and ‘Action Jackson’ all failing to recover costs at the box office. The last hope of the year is PK

starring Aamir Khan and Anushka Sharma, directed by the most successful director in the industry Rajkumar Hirani.

The audience will walk into theatres tomorrow expecting a classic, a wholesome entertainer with a message. The trade has pinned its hopes on a 250 crore plus grosser. Will PK deliver? It should. But when the expectations are so high, the chances of disappointment are higher, something that both Hirani and Aamir are well aware of.

Trade sources say, the film is set to get a record release tomorrow, especially at multiplexes. The screen count at plexes is right up there with big releases like Happy New Year and Kick. But at mass centres, PK is releasing at fewer theatres. The screen count is nowhere close to 5000 screens, reported by UTV earlier this week.

Aamir Khan - Anushka Sharma PK

The runtime at 2 hours 33 minutes is just about perfect for a big release like PK. The music hasn’t done too well, but that has been the case with every Hirani film so far. The only problem for PK could be the response that it gets at mass-centres, where it could rely on word-of-mouth publicity.

The average all India ticket price is higher than both Happy New Year and Kick.

We expect the film to collect around 32-33 crore on its opening day, which would be excellent for a non-holiday release. Circuits like Mumbai, Mysore, West Bengal, Delhi/UP, Andhra/Nizam could touch record levels, while mass centres are likely to be lower than Dhoom 3. In Tamilnadu/Kerala circuit, business could be affected by Rajnikanth’s Lingaa which released last weekend, while night shows in North India could be hit by the cold wave.

If the word-of-mouth is excellent, PK could challenge the highest collections on a single day on Sunday. Thursday is a national holiday for Christmas, which will further boost the first week collections.

IF VERY GOOD (excellent word-of-mouth like 3 Idiots!)

  • Day 1 – 33 cr
  • Day 2 – 37 cr
  • Day 3 – 43 cr (Sunday)
  • Weekend – 113 cr
  • First Week – 190 cr
  • Final – 280 cr+ (All Time Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

  • Day 1 – 32 cr
  • Day 2 – 34 cr
  • Day 3 – 36 cr (Sunday)
  • Weekend – 102 cr
  • First Week – 165 cr
  • Final – 210 cr (Blockbuster)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

  • Day 1 – 32 cr
  • Day 2 – 28 cr
  • Day 3 – 30 cr (Sunday)
  • Weekend – 90 cr
  • First Week – 135 cr
  • Final – 160 cr (Hit)

Overall, the immensely high expectations that PK carries could go against the film, if the content doesn’t live upto expectations. Economics-wise, PK is a safe film that has been made on a much lower budget as compared to films like Bang Bang, Dhoom 3 and Happy New Year. Aamir Khan hasn’t charged a fee for PK, he would instead get a share from profits. Most people in the trade that we spoke to, expect PK to either be a outstandingly good film that will go from strength-to-strength or crash after a good opening if the film isn’t as good as we all expect it to be.

What are your expectations from PK? Hit or Flop? Blockbuster or an all time grosser like 3 Idiots? Tell us in the comments section below.

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80 Comments

  • First week will decide how much it would collect. As far as my predictions are concerned it won’t cross 200, thus result as a HIT. Let’s wait and watch.

  • @romance expiry aamir is not as popular as leap year blockbuster actor and south remake star?? Keep dreaming. That’s why they are chasing aamir’s records since 2008. Whenever they break it, aamir takes just 4 months to leave them far behind. So get a life. Aamir is much more popular than srk and salman. And much bigger star.

  • PK will do up to 190 plus crores, but more than 225 is difficult. Always raju hirani films are good but
    will not cross more than220 crores for sure.

  • @babaji, most of the people did nt watch bb even in lower ticket price……hiked price pe kutta bhi nhi dkhta isko.

  • Anything near 30cr 1st day collections will be considered outstanding opening. And pk surpass the 30cr mark for sure.

  • Aamir is a very genius man thats why he didn’t charged he knows that the the success of film will be very high so profit sharing would be good. Aamir Rocksss the box office this time another benchmarks will be made and every one get another 4 yrs to break the record

  • Sorry to say , but I have to say. Pk will work 75% Bec of raj kumar hirani and his direction, so aamir fans should not jump very high.

  • Some foreign n star reviews who watched Pk today :

    Mahiie Gill
    @PKTheFilm is so well-scripted,
    skilfully crafted and a thought-
    provoking entertainer! A sparkling
    example of qualitative cinema!
    [1/3] #PK Everything about @
    PKTheFilm works! It’s rare to see a
    film dat bounces between humour
    & sentiment so seamlessly. Luv @
    aamir_khan ♡ [2/3] #PK @
    AnushkaSharma’s perfection and
    @itsssr has got coolness in his
    blood! @RajkumarHirani I
    honestly feel dat #PK is my
    birthday gift! :D [3/3]
    Darsheeka Singh
    What n amazing movie! #PK must
    watch! Tho I needn’t advocate
    it :P @aamir_khan is enuf! Thank
    u sir for keeping special preview 4
    police!
    Jaydeep Bharat
    #PK movie review ****/5 Its an
    anothr masterpiece by @
    RajkumarHirani along wid @
    aamir_khan,it will take u on
    breathlessly breathtaking level. #
    Pk will make u laugh, will make u
    warm, will make u cry,most
    importantly it will change our
    society’s vision with its massage,
    Huge. ****/5
    Ashoke Pandit
    Kudos to Raju Hirani-Aamir Khan
    duo for a brilliant film PK.U once
    again proved that you are one of
    the finest Actor Director Jodi.#PK
    Where the world is spreading
    hatred because of religion, Raju
    Hirani and @aamir_khan’s #PK
    spreads love through it.
    Revelation!
    Knight Rider
    So Review of PK is Out – A Good
    movie With same subject as Oh my
    God , Saurabh shukla plays A
    Godmen , He is also the villain in
    the movie. PK review – NOT a
    Masterpiece Like 3 idiots, Not a
    Laugh riot , Its A Gud movie With
    message , Bhojpuri dialougues are
    Spoilers. PK Review – Strictly For
    Aliens. Families Stay Away from #
    PK Too many vulgar
    scenes ,Kissing amd sex scenes in
    Climax aamir runs With the
    tramsistor showing his ass
    RickshawWala
    Saw #PK .. Anushka has done
    quite well.. Aamir acting and
    Bhojpuri jokes are Chutiyapa.. And
    story is copy of OMG .. Don’t waste
    ur money on #PK I must say ..
    Miss Marple
    Dont get the nannying treatment
    given to Sanjay Dutt by film-
    makers like R.Hirani.I mean the
    guy is a felon.& Munnabhai was so
    overrated!#PK. 3Idiots gave me
    Royal headache(literally,watched it
    in London),so giving #PK a pass.

  • My prediction : Anything between 205 cr and 280 crs. I am not sure how single screen audience will receive this movie if it manages to touch masses then 300 crs are sure. One thing is sure that Pk will surpass HNY in worst case scenario !!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Disaster!!!! After this Smeagle won’t be in films for years to come, he will retire. This man is full of lies and manipulations (hiked ticket price lies)

  • Not just an ATBB but Highest Grosser Off All Time too…

    35 cr opening day and 350 cr plus- Im super confident despite the negativity eminating from pro king media and indicine towers…..!

  • My predictions for pk, fist day- 30 crore, First weekend-95 crore , first week-160 crore, Lifetime – 215 crore, Verdict Blockbuster. All the best Amir and Hirani Couple.

  • Even if pk is good..it will be a multiplex movie..mit will not appeal single screen viewers. ….without them u cant touch 200 cr…so my prediction 170-180 cr max……unless it is 3i…..

  • It’s easy to predict pk will collect 280 crore if it is a classic like 3I or the word of mouth would good.
    That’s not pprediction. That’s anticipation.

    My prediction.

    Pk won’t break the opening day, weekend collection of Hny.
    Lifetime will be 170 to 190 crore.
    Won’t break the world wide collection of Hny..

  • my prediction
    opening day – 26 -29
    sat – 24-28 cr
    sun – 28 -33 cr
    weekend- 90-100 cr
    one week -165 cr
    lifetime – 220 cr

  • Ok, reviews suggest as follows:

    MUNNA BHAI FILMS >>> PK >>> 3 Idiots

    If it is as good as 3I, my tickets will be booked today!!!

  • Checking every review and nobody (Fan-boys omitted who even pan RDB and TZP) said,terrible, bad or disappointed.

    TAKE A BOW RAJU! YOU ROCK!

  • Twitter reviews are WTF??

    Some say, it is out of the world, some say, it is weakest of Hirani? Waiting for a genuine reviews! I trust Masand. If 3+ from him, I’m sure it’ll be good.

  • @Indicine

    it is houseful till Saturday in mulund. Will watch on Monday. (Weekends are too expensive) You’re right. Shouldn’t waste time on reviews!

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