PK HIT or FLOP: Box Office Prediction

The most keenly-awaited film of 2014 is finally here. PK hits theatres in less than 10 hours from now and expectations are at an all-time high. Business has hit rock-bottom in the last 6 weeks or so, what with ‘The Shaukeens’, ‘Kill Dil’, ‘Happy Ending’, ‘Ungli’ and ‘Action Jackson’ all failing to recover costs at the box office. The last hope of the year is PK

starring Aamir Khan and Anushka Sharma, directed by the most successful director in the industry Rajkumar Hirani.

The audience will walk into theatres tomorrow expecting a classic, a wholesome entertainer with a message. The trade has pinned its hopes on a 250 crore plus grosser. Will PK deliver? It should. But when the expectations are so high, the chances of disappointment are higher, something that both Hirani and Aamir are well aware of.

Trade sources say, the film is set to get a record release tomorrow, especially at multiplexes. The screen count at plexes is right up there with big releases like Happy New Year and Kick. But at mass centres, PK is releasing at fewer theatres. The screen count is nowhere close to 5000 screens, reported by UTV earlier this week.

Aamir Khan - Anushka Sharma PK

The runtime at 2 hours 33 minutes is just about perfect for a big release like PK. The music hasn’t done too well, but that has been the case with every Hirani film so far. The only problem for PK could be the response that it gets at mass-centres, where it could rely on word-of-mouth publicity.

The average all India ticket price is higher than both Happy New Year and Kick.

We expect the film to collect around 32-33 crore on its opening day, which would be excellent for a non-holiday release. Circuits like Mumbai, Mysore, West Bengal, Delhi/UP, Andhra/Nizam could touch record levels, while mass centres are likely to be lower than Dhoom 3. In Tamilnadu/Kerala circuit, business could be affected by Rajnikanth’s Lingaa which released last weekend, while night shows in North India could be hit by the cold wave.

If the word-of-mouth is excellent, PK could challenge the highest collections on a single day on Sunday. Thursday is a national holiday for Christmas, which will further boost the first week collections.

IF VERY GOOD (excellent word-of-mouth like 3 Idiots!)

  • Day 1 – 33 cr
  • Day 2 – 37 cr
  • Day 3 – 43 cr (Sunday)
  • Weekend – 113 cr
  • First Week – 190 cr
  • Final – 280 cr+ (All Time Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

  • Day 1 – 32 cr
  • Day 2 – 34 cr
  • Day 3 – 36 cr (Sunday)
  • Weekend – 102 cr
  • First Week – 165 cr
  • Final – 210 cr (Blockbuster)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

  • Day 1 – 32 cr
  • Day 2 – 28 cr
  • Day 3 – 30 cr (Sunday)
  • Weekend – 90 cr
  • First Week – 135 cr
  • Final – 160 cr (Hit)

Overall, the immensely high expectations that PK carries could go against the film, if the content doesn’t live upto expectations. Economics-wise, PK is a safe film that has been made on a much lower budget as compared to films like Bang Bang, Dhoom 3 and Happy New Year. Aamir Khan hasn’t charged a fee for PK, he would instead get a share from profits. Most people in the trade that we spoke to, expect PK to either be a outstandingly good film that will go from strength-to-strength or crash after a good opening if the film isn’t as good as we all expect it to be.

What are your expectations from PK? Hit or Flop? Blockbuster or an all time grosser like 3 Idiots? Tell us in the comments section below.

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80 Comments

  • I think pk is gonna break all the previous records bcz i hv never seen rajkumar hirani making a senseless movie.. he is a briliant artist in making a movie feel great. And there is one of the top hero obviously amir khan in it.. so pk got every chance of becoming all time bb.. dnt worry about worst case scenario cz i guarante rajkumar hirani will never make a movie with bad content…
    All the supporting cast is much much talented and i will surely watch out for anushka

  • Expecting 280+ crore domestic lifetime.Not interested in single day,single hour record as lifetime collections matters the most and lifetime collections decides the verdict of any movie.

  • Pk is a superb film. Good reviews r coming out. Amir magic at its peak. Amir – anushka has done a great job. Sanjay dutt is good. Another good film. Don’t compare. Watch it independently.

  • It will be a blockbuster,no doubt…
    It will easily collect 210crs which is needed to attain that..
    But people are waiting for 300cr club,will it do so???
    Lets see..

  • Hats off to Hrithik for not increasing the ticket price for bang bang,even though it was a high budget film clashing with haider…

  • I think PK will do 200 CR . It will be Aamir’s 3rd 200 CR movie after 3 Idiots and Dhoom 3 . But the big question whether it can beat Kick and become the highest grossing movie of 2014 and whether it can break Dhoom 3’s record and become an all time grosser this remains to be seen ? Aamir will have no release in 2015 so he would want PK to create a huge roar at the Box Office . The Budget of the movie is less because Raju Hirani’s movies are very cost effective . Interestingly PK is his first film which has been shot abroad . I think the opening of PK will be more than 30 CR and that would be good . Let us see How many shows PK gets in Aurangabad ?

  • it will surely cross 250cr if not 300 a lot will depend on WOM lets see what happened.i am expecting above 30cr on opening day.

  • Definitely we expect an all time grosser from aamir khan during Christmas..also rajkumar hirani is the director of this ship so we want an all time grosser..it will take a huge opening also for sure

  • Dear indicine team, Now i’m very sad feeling because you not publish my comment. But why not publish my comment? If you don’t want me comments on your website, i no comments next time. Thanks a lot… Good night…. cause in Myanmar now 12:25am.

  • pk budget is max 100 cr including p & a
    if movie cross 240 cr then movie will get atbb verdict….
    but look like movie will shattered all records…
    dhoom 3 is no more…rip..
    aa raha hai PK..

  • Romance Take: k boxoffice performance totally depends on its oppening day n weekned although if content is good then whatever the opening film become successful but in recent times maximum big films faced negetivity so openning is very crucial for the film. Pk buzz is very low compare to kick, hny n bang bang due to boring trailler with poor songs plus due to less mass apple n low promotional activites. Also amir is not popular like srk n salman but due to rajkumar hirani factor pk will get good openning. Lets talk about pk pridiction-
    pk releasing in a normal day like jai ho so pk can’t break or make any single record rest on content
    1st day 25 to 30cr
    2nd day 22 to 28cr
    3rd day 27 to 33cr
    weekned 75 to 90cr
    1st week 110 to 135cr
    Lifetime 155 to 185cr
    if pk open lees than 25cr then pk won’t cross 150cr mark

  • everything will depend on the content.
    My prediction:
    First day : 29-30 cr
    1st weekend : 95 cr
    lifetime will be 215 cr

    I can’t wait to see PK.early reviews have been good so far.

  • Amir not charging for pk itz an indication that they r not confident abt the content that it can do either 250 or 150
    i am going for 165cr

  • Hard to predict about lifetime of PK as the film is not for single screens.For opening I can’t predict as I am poor in that, I thought for bang bang and kick 30cr + opening but they fell around 25-26 cr.Only hny weekend production was right by me. so I will wait for 20th when the figure came.Anything above 28-30 cr will be superb on non holiday.
    @arjun kappor fan I wasn’t talking about you and I never referred you chameleon, I was talking about some other fellows on Indicine who showed their colours now. Don’t bother I am not against you dude.

  • My prediction for PK is 350 crores which was same for our kings movie hny but our king failed by 150 crore margin so now lets see how near aamir reaches to my prediction

  • Amir not charging for pk itz an indication that they r not confident abt the content it can do either 250 or 150
    i am going for 165cr

  • Frankly speaking, 3 idiots wasn’t the best movie of both Aamir and Hirani. can’t compare Aamir’s films because of different genre, but Raju Hirani was out of the world with both the Munna Bhai films.

    3I trended brilliantly because of its appeal. Students like me were dying to catch the film after seeing the promos. PK looks a much more intelligent film.

    It’s subject, I’m damn sure, is religion. Again a very appealing theme. I have strong feeling that the emotional sequences are gonna be much more than comedy (Like in LRMB)

    So all in all, it shall at least become a blockbuster, but one thing for sure, it will go down in the history of Indian cinema as one of the best commercial films ever made!

  • @romance u predicted humpty will flop but it bcm a big hit.u predicted bb will flop and Bengali films clashing with bb will bcm hit but uthe actual bo report was exactly opposite.so stop giving lame predictions.

    and hw cn u say mist big hits nowadays gt negative wom.except bb every big film that bcm a hit recieved decent to excellent wom otherwise they would hv crashed like besharam that despite a big opening flopped miserably.so dont insult the big hits

  • I have to say though that the excitement is quite similar to 3 idiots. Saw some of my friends posting about it on facebook. That was a rare, very rare moment. Most of the times, such posts are seen after the release, so the excitement looks fantastic.

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