Krrish 3 HIT or Flop: Box Office Prediction

It’s Diwali and the biggest film of the year – Rakesh Roshan’s Krrish 3 – is all set to hit screens in less than a week. Expectations are sky high and rightly so, because the father-son jodi of Hrithik and Rakesh Roshan have never failed. We are not even talking about small hits here, each film of theirs has shattered every box office record in sight.

Rakesh - Hrithik Films

Rakesh – Hrithik Films

A quick look at some of their films together..

  • Kaho Na Pyaar Hai – Way back in 2000, the entire industry and national audience were looking forward to the debut of Amitabh Bachchan’s son Abhishek and Randhir Kapoor’s daughter Kareena Kapoor in a film titled Refugee. About 7 months before the much-awaited release, Rakesh Roshan’s son Hrithik made his debut in a love story with another newcomer Amisha Patel. Expectations weren’t quite as high, but Hrithik single-handedly took the world by storm. Not only did he turn into a superstar overnight, comparisons were being made between Hrithik and the reigning superstar Shahrukh Khan. KNPH went on to be the biggest grosser of the year and won Hrithik the Best debut and Best Actor trophy that year.
  • Koi Mil Gaya – The scenario was completely different. Expectations from KMG were high, but more importantly it was a make-or-break film for Hrithik who was written off by the media as a one-hit wonder. From comparisons with Shahrukh Khan to one-hit wonders like Kumar Gaurav, Hrithik had seen it all in the span of 3 years. Koi Mil Gaya though proved to be a turning point in Hrithik’s career as the film, once again, went on to be the biggest grosser of 2003. Hrithik won the Best Actor and Best Actor Critics Filmfare award in the same year.
  • Krrish – Between KMG and Krrish, Hrithik only featured in one film ‘Lakshya’ which didn’t do too well at the box office, even though it is widely believed to be Hrithik’s best film and performance. Krrish arrived in 2006 and took the box office by storm, going on to be the highest grossing film ever. It took Hrithik’s own film Dhoom 2 that very year to surpass Krrish, and Hrithik was crowned the box office king for the first time since Kaho Na Pyaar Hai.

More than 7 years later, the duo return with their most-ambitious film to date. Krrish 3 made on a budget of 90 crore, with print and marketing likely to add up to 25 crore, taking the total cost of the film to around 115 crore.

Economics: A huge chunk of their investment has already been recovered. The satellite rights were pre-sold for Rs 40 crore, music rights fetched around 10 crore and Rakesh Roshan also sold theatrical rights to individual distributors before the film went on floors. For Krrish 3 to be a decent success and ensure that the distributors don’t end up in the red, the film has to collect around 120 crore at the domestic box office.

Krrish 3 Poster - Hrithik, Priyanka and Kangana

Krrish 3 Poster – Hrithik, Priyanka and Kangana

Screens: Krrish 3 will have the widest release for an Indian film ever. The expected screen count including regional versions is around 4100. Although this could change as some screens get finalised as late as the Wednesday before release.

Runtime: The film has been passed with a ‘U’ certificate. The runtime is exactly 2 hours 33 minutes, so the turnaround time (between two shows) at multiplexes will be around 3 hours. The runtime is just about right, not as long as Agneepath (2 hours 54 minutes) and not too short as single-screens audience don’t consider films that are less than 2 hours to be ‘paisa-vasool’. Exhibitors can easily screen 5 shows a day, a few theatres that start early could squeeze in 6 shows a day per screen.

Records: For opening day and weekend records, timing of release and luck are huge factors. Unfortunately, Krrish 3 isn’t getting the best of dates. Opening day is not a national holiday and the film is releasing during the pre-Diwali period. Sunday is Diwali puja, which has a huge impact on collections. While the film has an outside chance of breaking the opening day record, 3-day weekend records (currently held by Chennai Express) are likely to be out of reach. More on the records that Krrish 3 chases in a separate article.

We are changing our format slightly for the box office predictions of Krrish 3, as a lot of people have requested day-wise predictions. Here it is then Krrish 3 box office predictions..

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

  • Day 1 – 28 crore
  • Day 2 – 25 crore
  • Day 3 – 20 crore (Diwali puja)
  • Weekend – 73 crores
  • Day 4 – 25 crore
  • First Week –  140 crores
  • Final – 200 crores+ (Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

  • Day 1 – 26 crore
  • Day 2 – 22 crore
  • Day 3 – 17 crore (Diwali puja)
  • Weekend – 65 crores
  • Day 4 – 19 crore
  • First Week –  120 crores
  • Final – 170 crores (Super Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

  • Day 1 – 24 cr
  • Day 2 – 18 cr
  • Day 3 – 14 cr (Diwali puja)
  • Weekend – 56 cr
  • Day 4 – 13 cr
  • First Week –  88 cr
  • Final – 105 cr (Flop / Below Average)

Even in the worst case scenario, Krrish 3 should cross the 100 crore mark, but as we have seen with films like Besharam, box office is and always has been highly unpredictable. If the response is close to as good as any of their last 3 films, the Chennai Express record could well be in danger of being eclipsed. But since Krrish 3 is such a risky film, is could all go terribly wrong too.

The trade has its fingers crossed, as the Diwali period has always been highly lucrative for the industry. The combined business that Jab Tak Hai Jaan and Son Of Sardar generated last year was 200 cr+

It’s going to be an exciting time for the industry and for all the box office fanatics here on Indicine. In-depth reports, box office comparisons, records.. we will cover it all here.

For now, tell us what you think. Will Krrish 3 take the box office by storm? Will the film go on to be massive hit or sink without a trace? Its Hrithik’s time to shine, can he? That’s the big question.

Post your comments below.

Note: Any irrelevant or silly comments will be deleted. Don’t bother posting.



  • I m pretty sure that krrish3 will break opening day record, it will collect around 35 crores and will go on to become the biggest hit of the indian film industry with collection of somewhere between 250-300 crores..hrithik is simply amazing..

  • these kind of movies are bound and restricted due the genre isnt popular like in USA
    itself + partial nudity and kissing and copying
    these are the cons that will stop krish3 and dhom3 from breaking Ce records
    the rest depends on the content story and dialogue delivery
    those who are complaining about songs
    i dont think that songs matter to superhero movie
    good luck the roshans

  • @indicine:sir,its hrithiks commercial film after dhoom2,u clearly know what he did with krrish and dhoom2..dont worry sir even in worst case scenario it wil surpass ur expectation also krrish3 will start of with historic opening ever witnessed for a non holiday,and will break first day record without nonholiday…and finally it will collect 230-250 cr and 30 cr in dubbing versions and overseas 90-100 cr..

  • #Indicine
    i think this time you predicted correctly… Even in worst wom it will cross 100 cr.
    And good wom will cross 200-220 cr.
    Best of luck for K3 team

  • these kind of movies are bound and restricted due the genre isnt popular like in USA
    + partial nudity and kissing and copying
    these are the cons that will stop krish3 and dhom3 from breaking Ce records
    the rest depends on the content story and dialogue delivery
    those who are complaining about songs
    i dont think that songs matter to superhero movie
    good luck the roshans

  • Romance Prediction of Krish3
    lifetime collection
    domestic 85cr
    oversease 38cr
    verdict: All time diwali diastar
    note: my prediction always comes true

  • @speedo: (October 25, 2013 at 1:21 am) keep dreaming before 1st nov, after that you will face the reality. Non khan starer film never do 250cr net n 30cr dub verson n 100cr in oversease. Non holiday 35cr out of reach, don’t be overconfident like ranbir fans before besaram.

  • Opening weekend – 65crs
    Week 1 – 115cr
    Week 2 – 40cr
    Week 3 – 15cr
    Week 4 – 6c
    Remaning – 4cr

    Lifetime – 180 max overseas 35cr

    And Dhoom 3
    Week 1 – 100cr
    2nd Week – 35cr
    Lifetime – 150cr and os 45cr

  • @indicine its just your prediction and also you are not over hyping the movie its good for the films business but sure a box office game will begins and changes

  • But if it can collect 140 crore in first week itself, then I don’t think its final collection will be only 200 crore because second week itself should collect at least 60 crore. Then rest of the two weeks should collect at least 50 crore. So total collection should reach at 250/260 crore.

    I won’t compare Hrithik with Ranbir for his besharam because Hrithik has a strong star power and huge fan following. At least his fans will watch this film no matter what happens to WOM. You only hear arguments between people for SRK, HR, Amir, Salman and sometimes Ajay Devgan and Akshay Kumar. But almost nobody talks too much about Ranbir. So even if Krrish 3 doesn’t work. It should end up somewhere between 125 and 130 crore which will give it a HIT title.

    Flop is unlikely but I have a fear that this is a kind of genre which most Indians do not like. Even South Indian star Rajnikanth who is worshiped by South Indians could not break 3 Idiots record with his film Robot that is similar genre of Krrish 3. So finger crossed for this one. Anything can happen!!

    But if fans want to see Krrish 4, then they should make sure that they are watching Krrish 3, otherwise, this could be the conclusion of Krrish series.

  • Earlier,i means 1st quadrant of this year and 2012,every sites predicted that K3 would collect in the range of 180-200 cr bt after success of CE they all started to predict that k3 would colect more than 200+cr,even ranbir fans,akkians also dreamiing that their superstar’s movie would collect 200+cr,bt in real that’s n’t happen,avi hro fans ka turn hai,250-300cr kyo bol rahe hu,500-600 bolo2 aur ascha lage ga.170 cr

  • It will be “3rdDoubleCentury” of Bollywood movie after 3I & CE, would love to surpass a CE lifetime collection. Best wishes to HRo & K3 team.:)

  • Indian Maximum – 120crs
    Overseas – 30cr

    Dhoom 3 will emerge biggest grosser of 2013 and will cross fake CE figure of 228crs

  • actually i am more exting for dhoom 3 more than krrish 3 because aamir khan is my favourite hero
    but 1 thing is sure k3 and d3 among the top 3 movie of the year and one of them is a surely highest grosser of the year because everyone knows what aamir (ghajini ,3 idiots) and hritik (krrish 2 , dhoom 2) do with anticipated commercial movie.

  • Reality this film does 200 crs worldwide. the thing is hritik does not have the mass fan following like salmon has. so at max 150crs domestic and he doesn’t have popularity like srk in overseas so at max 50cr in overseas. so total 200 crs in worldwide

  • Very well written, and realistic article/prediction. Loved the flashback memory of Father-Son duo.

    Coming to the point, opening day and weekend record are out of reach now due to no National Holiday.
    It should be chasing opening week, and lifetime record currently held by Chennai Express.

    I have gone through the initial businesses of some of the record breaking films like Chennai Express, and Ek Tha Tiger, over 25 crore opening is pretty much given, which is very good considering it’s release time. But, I think it has outside chance of crossing 30 crore+, Nov 1st is a holiday in some parts of the country as it happens to be ‘Dhanteras’ as well. And, the holidays have already begun in schools and colleges.

    It could have been record breaking had it been releasing on a national holiday with 4,100 screens.
    Lets compare it with ETT & CE. ETT opened in 3,300 screens and collected around 33 crore with 100% occupancy in ‘2012’. Now, Hrithik is still behind SRK and Salman in terms of popularity, but he’s only one of the two (other being Aamir) who can compete with Khan duo, and even beat them on their own game. So, the collections could have gone around 40-45 crore with 100% occupancy on a national holiday considering it’s pre-release buzz and expectations, plus higher ticket prices. But, since Nov 1st isn’t a national holiday, your prediction sounds about right. I would call it as a semi holiday, though.

    On comparisons with Besharam, first of all Hrithik isn’t Ranbir, he may challenge him in urban areas, but the expectations and anticipation from Hrithik is much higher, no one expected YJHD to collect over 185 crore domestically. Secondly, RakeshJi is surely no Anurag Kashyap. Thirdly, Krrish franchise and Besharam has a vast difference. So, even in its worst case scenario it shouldn’t go Besharam’s way. Even RA.One with the worst possible wom publicity, went on to collect more than 110 crore domestically. It should be Hrithik’s highest grosser ever even in its worst case scenario, which I don’t think will be a case, since I have faith in this father-son duo.

    “If the response is close to as good as any of their last 3 films, the Chennai Express record could well be in danger of being eclipsed.”

    Definitely agreed. Genre won’t affect much as long as the content is good. Sci-Fi Superhero movies are rare thing in India, so people will be looking forward to it, I also agree with the fact that, it is a risky project, but if everything goes in their way, i.e., if the response is good, then the sky is limit.

    I can’t predict whether it will cross 200 crore domestically or not, no one can, without knowing the content and public response. I’m looking forward to see it!

  • @hrithiklover
    is this a authentic report?or you are spreading it coz you are a HR fan…………if its true its good,if its not true then i would say no need to lie even for your fav star……

  • The good news is that krrish 3 will break the record for highest grossing film, but, the bad news is the record will be held only for less than 2 months……DHOOM 3

  • @romance:u idiot,which khan starrer has done 250cr as u r sayin non khan starrer cnt do 250cr??
    who xpectd srk to giv 210cr?his highest ws 114cr bfre..wat will u say wen hrithik gave 80cr wen srks highest was 66cr,aamir highest ws 56cr nd salmans highest ws 70cr??so shut d * up u looser..
    this is full fledged commercial movie aftr years ,so u gtta undrstnd this nd enuf of ur barking at hrithik articles..

  • nicely written indicine!! thats the problem with krissh3..its budget is so high ( 140 crores)…anything less than 160 crores gross , will result in average tag ..can be also flop!!!!and also…the hollywood biggie THOR: THE DARK WORLD releasing in india during diwali will be a huge competition as the scriptwork and basic theme is same in krishh3. it can cut down a lot of audience in which, the visual effects & quality will be easily compared by the” intelligent audience”….vivek oberoi’s clowny, funny costume has already raised many questions on the final fate of the movie.

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