It’s Diwali and the biggest film of the year – Rakesh Roshan’s Krrish 3 – is all set to hit screens in less than a week. Expectations are sky high and rightly so, because the father-son jodi of Hrithik and Rakesh Roshan have never failed. We are not even talking about small hits here, each film of theirs has shattered every box office record in sight.
A quick look at some of their films together..
- Kaho Na Pyaar Hai – Way back in 2000, the entire industry and national audience were looking forward to the debut of Amitabh Bachchan’s son Abhishek and Randhir Kapoor’s daughter Kareena Kapoor in a film titled Refugee. About 7 months before the much-awaited release, Rakesh Roshan’s son Hrithik made his debut in a love story with another newcomer Amisha Patel. Expectations weren’t quite as high, but Hrithik single-handedly took the world by storm. Not only did he turn into a superstar overnight, comparisons were being made between Hrithik and the reigning superstar Shahrukh Khan. KNPH went on to be the biggest grosser of the year and won Hrithik the Best debut and Best Actor trophy that year.
- Koi Mil Gaya – The scenario was completely different. Expectations from KMG were high, but more importantly it was a make-or-break film for Hrithik who was written off by the media as a one-hit wonder. From comparisons with Shahrukh Khan to one-hit wonders like Kumar Gaurav, Hrithik had seen it all in the span of 3 years. Koi Mil Gaya though proved to be a turning point in Hrithik’s career as the film, once again, went on to be the biggest grosser of 2003. Hrithik won the Best Actor and Best Actor Critics Filmfare award in the same year.
- Krrish – Between KMG and Krrish, Hrithik only featured in one film ‘Lakshya’ which didn’t do too well at the box office, even though it is widely believed to be Hrithik’s best film and performance. Krrish arrived in 2006 and took the box office by storm, going on to be the highest grossing film ever. It took Hrithik’s own film Dhoom 2 that very year to surpass Krrish, and Hrithik was crowned the box office king for the first time since Kaho Na Pyaar Hai.
More than 7 years later, the duo return with their most-ambitious film to date. Krrish 3 made on a budget of 90 crore, with print and marketing likely to add up to 25 crore, taking the total cost of the film to around 115 crore.
Economics: A huge chunk of their investment has already been recovered. The satellite rights were pre-sold for Rs 40 crore, music rights fetched around 10 crore and Rakesh Roshan also sold theatrical rights to individual distributors before the film went on floors. For Krrish 3 to be a decent success and ensure that the distributors don’t end up in the red, the film has to collect around 120 crore at the domestic box office.
Screens: Krrish 3 will have the widest release for an Indian film ever. The expected screen count including regional versions is around 4100. Although this could change as some screens get finalised as late as the Wednesday before release.
Runtime: The film has been passed with a ‘U’ certificate. The runtime is exactly 2 hours 33 minutes, so the turnaround time (between two shows) at multiplexes will be around 3 hours. The runtime is just about right, not as long as Agneepath (2 hours 54 minutes) and not too short as single-screens audience don’t consider films that are less than 2 hours to be ‘paisa-vasool’. Exhibitors can easily screen 5 shows a day, a few theatres that start early could squeeze in 6 shows a day per screen.
Records: For opening day and weekend records, timing of release and luck are huge factors. Unfortunately, Krrish 3 isn’t getting the best of dates. Opening day is not a national holiday and the film is releasing during the pre-Diwali period. Sunday is Diwali puja, which has a huge impact on collections. While the film has an outside chance of breaking the opening day record, 3-day weekend records (currently held by Chennai Express) are likely to be out of reach. More on the records that Krrish 3 chases in a separate article.
We are changing our format slightly for the box office predictions of Krrish 3, as a lot of people have requested day-wise predictions. Here it is then Krrish 3 box office predictions..
IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)
- Day 1 – 28 crore
- Day 2 – 25 crore
- Day 3 – 20 crore (Diwali puja)
- Weekend – 73 crores
- Day 4 – 25 crore
- First Week – 140 crores
- Final – 200 crores+ (Blockbuster)
IF AVERAGE (mixed response)
- Day 1 – 26 crore
- Day 2 – 22 crore
- Day 3 – 17 crore (Diwali puja)
- Weekend – 65 crores
- Day 4 – 19 crore
- First Week – 120 crores
- Final – 170 crores (Super Hit)
IF BAD (worst case scenario)
- Day 1 – 24 cr
- Day 2 – 18 cr
- Day 3 – 14 cr (Diwali puja)
- Weekend – 56 cr
- Day 4 – 13 cr
- First Week – 88 cr
- Final – 105 cr (Flop / Below Average)
Even in the worst case scenario, Krrish 3 should cross the 100 crore mark, but as we have seen with films like Besharam, box office is and always has been highly unpredictable. If the response is close to as good as any of their last 3 films, the Chennai Express record could well be in danger of being eclipsed. But since Krrish 3 is such a risky film, is could all go terribly wrong too.
The trade has its fingers crossed, as the Diwali period has always been highly lucrative for the industry. The combined business that Jab Tak Hai Jaan and Son Of Sardar generated last year was 200 cr+
It’s going to be an exciting time for the industry and for all the box office fanatics here on Indicine. In-depth reports, box office comparisons, records.. we will cover it all here.
For now, tell us what you think. Will Krrish 3 take the box office by storm? Will the film go on to be massive hit or sink without a trace? Its Hrithik’s time to shine, can he? That’s the big question.
Post your comments below.
Note: Any irrelevant or silly comments will be deleted. Don’t bother posting.
KRRISH 3 = 270 cr + nett.. Mark my words..
Well written !
I think, 200+ crore is ambititious for krrish3,like superhero movies doesnt much digest in India.
Anything between 150-180 Cr is also satisfactory collection for film which avg song and dull promotion.
HOPE FOR BEST.
Hmm, nicely written. Though maybe I guess even with Bad WOM it may reach 115-120 crores as it does have two weeks free run (With full respect to Satya 2 and Thor 2). But who knows what will actually happen at the BO.
I would like if Indicine you can do a prediction for overseas as well. Some say it would not be great because of the genre of this film but the scale of it’s release is huge so it might be interesting too.
@DJBHAIJAAN, we got the worst case prediction of Besharam terribly wrong. So just keeping it a little lower this time around. People always expect predictions to be accurate, but mlst trade analysts got it wrong with Besharam and Boss. Letss see how it goes with Krrish 3.
Honestly it has all potential elements of blockbaster
Even if peopele dont like it still it will pass 150 crors
Wishing Best of Luck to Hrithik.
Going to see it FDFS.
I’ve Full faith in Roshans:)
Though songs are not hit,film has good buzz.
So Let our Krrish fly….
It will be a flop. 80cr – 100cr. Mark my word.
180 is given, if wom is good( nt even extraordinary) thn sky is the limit. best of luck to all hrithikians, party time for every 1 of u….
@mayur , who said dull promotion.
wait and watch time will tell.
first day 30 crore, 2nd day 25, 3rd day 20 crore, first week 110 crore..Final 145-148 crore..
krrish3 ……3 for 300 crores baby ;)
@indicine Yes I agree it’s like shooting in the dark really. But kudos to you. It looks like you actually did some research about the film before you wrote this article unlike many other so called film websites. It’s good to see. :)
This movie will be 200+cr…Krrish-3 trailer was the most watched trailer…And That’s the big thing for a film…ALL TIME BLOCKbuster…Nothing to say
250 crore + ….damn confident…hrithik is a complete actor. ..he or his father wont let us down at any cost…get set go…
Could Krrish 3 Box Office Collection affect by Salman and Hrithik cold war ?
If it, then Krrish 3 collect around 150+ BO business.
Worst case scenario-120cr+
Its undoubtedly going to be hrithik highest grosser
If average wom-170-190cr
If positive wom – then truly sky is the limit,,, 260cr+possible,,
If wom is good then
Week 1 – 125
Lifetime 190 blockbuster
There will not be average wom
If wom is bad
Week 1 – 80
Lifetime – 95-100 above average
Hrithik Roshan,Rakesh Roshan,priyanka chopra,new ideas of mutants in bollywood,excellent support of prequels,widest release ever.
Can be compared to extremely high budget superhero films of hollywood(the avengers,iron man 3,man of steel),music,dismal collections of recent big releases Besharam and Boss,Diwali release(as Ra one and JTHJ didnt did very good business)
@indicine What is turn around time?
how are the promotions going on are they gud or worst?
Krish3 lifetime collection
verdict: All time diwali diastar
note: my pridiction always comes true.
To be honest seeing fate of hugely anticipated Besharam and Boss I guess its impossible to predict the fate of a movie, but still any thing less than 180cr would be a disappointment for me. And yeah someone rightly said if word of mouth is good then sky is the limit of Krrish 3. For now I would just say all the best to entire Krrish team. I really hope this movie gets successful if not for the people who worked in it then for us Indian moviegoers. Its time bollywood reach into new phase of film making.
Honestly minimum 120 cr max 180 cr
Krrish3 promos and trailer not promising . Songs are disaster . Hrithik doesn’t have much Fan-following like Srk , Salman or Aamir . So , I think Lifetime of Krrish 3 would be around 110cr.
Verdict : Flop
Not Excited for Krrish3 .. waiting for Dhoom3 , Jai Ho and Happy New Year :)
K3 is a work of labour,dedication and creativity. .it will do 230 cr+
@indicine:yup!it’s gud to predict at a lower rate so that we willn’t be disappointed if it does a little lower collection.
D3 & K3 r may like don2,race 2 type highclass movies…which affect the collection…today public like CE,DABBANG type movies…3I type movie rare so both movies 190-210 range bcoz of 2+ open week…if first week goes past 150+ then 230+
@indicine:also liked ur lines about KNPH.
@Nipun, thanks :)