Note: The final IndicineLBO Prediction will be published tomorrow, this is just a quick update on what number to except from the lifetime business of Shah Rukh Khan’s Jab Harry Met Sejal.
It was one of the biggest releases of the year, a film that was expected to bring the best out of Shah Rukh Khan and more importantly the director, Imtiaz Ali, who has directed films like Socha Na Tha and Jab We Met.
But right from the moment the first ‘mini trail’ was out, the interest in the film dipped and the survey we did during the ‘Tubelight’ weekend, made it pretty clear that the normal audience (not including fans) simply weren’t interested in SRK’s latest offering.
Yet, we expected the film to collect around 17-18 crore on its opening day at the box office. That was the ‘IndicineFBO’ average range, for which we were criticised and mocked from those who were certain that the film would open above 20/25 crore.
The decision to stick to the 16-17 crore range came when the response to the advance booking was dismal outside the main cities. The final prediction was supposed to be 16.5 crore, but we decided to go with 17 crore. A case of pressure from fans affecting our prediction accuracy, because lower prediction and higher collection would mean extreme criticism.
Coming to the lifetime box office collections of the film, the reports vary from negative to extremely negative. There’s a drop of 15-20% on Saturday from Friday (until 3PM) and even though business is expected to pick up in the evening and peak at night, the film would need nothing less than a miraculous turnaround to show the kind of big growth it needs on Saturday and Sunday – after a poor start on Friday.
We are currently expecting the film to wrap with lifetime collections of around 75 crore. The level of collections in the next three days will decide if it goes above that number or does the unthinkable and falls below. We should be able to get a more accurate figure looking at the Saturday number.
Stay tuned for the final ‘IndicineLBO’ box office prediction tomorrow.
| Movie | Date | LBO | Actual |
| Baadshaho | Sep 1 | 73 crore | - |
| Shubh Mangal Saavdhan | Sep 1 | 28 crore | - |
| Daddy | Sep 8 | 8 crore | - |
| Kaalakaandi | Sep 8 | 12 crore | - |
| Simran | Sep 15 | 10 crore | - |
| Haseena | Sep 15 | 11 crore | - |
| Lucknow Central | Sep 15 | 13 crore | - |
| Bhoomi | Sep 22 | 20 crore | - |
| Judwaa 2 | Sep 29 | 125 crore | - |
| A Gentleman | Aug 25 | 20 crore | - |
| Secret Superstar | Diwali | 60 crore | - |
| Golmaal Again | Diwali | 200 crore | - |
| Ittefaq | Nov 3 | 25 crore | - |
| Padmavati | Nov 17 | 180 crore | - |
| Tiger Zinda Hai | Christmas | 275 crore | - |
| Ok Jaanu | Jan 13 | 26 crore | 20 crore |
| Jolly LLB 2 | Feb 10 | 112 crore | 116 crore |
| Rangoon | Feb 24 | 23 crore | 20 crore |
| Commando 2 | Mar 03 | 25 crore | 23 crore |
| Badrinath Ki Dulhania | Mar 10 | 115 crore | 118 crore |
| Phillauri | Mar 24 | 28 crore | 27 crore |
| Naam Shabana | Mar 31 | 30 crore | 35 crore |
| Begum Jaan | Apr 14 | 22 crore | 18 crore |
| Noor | Apr 21 | 10 crore | 8 crore |
| Sarkar 3 | May 12 | 16 crore | 12 crore |
| Meri Pyaari Bindu | May 12 | 18 crore | 13 crore |
| Half Girlfriend | May 19 | 60 crore | 58 crore |
| Raabta | June 9 | 20 crore | 21 crore |
| Tubelight | Eid | 146 crore | 125 crore |
| Mom | July 7 | 44 crore | 37 crore |
| Jagga Jasoos | July 14 | 57 crore | 55 crore |
| Munna Michael | July 21 | 33 crore | 35 crore |
| Jab Harry Met Sejal | Aug 4 | 67 crore | 63 crore |
| Mubarakan | July 28 | 45 crore | 57 crore |
| Toilet Ek Prem Katha | Aug 11 | 120 crore | 130 crore |
| Bareilly Ki Barfi | Aug 18 | 24 crore | 29 crore |
Expacted Prediction…Even Look Like Fall Below The Mark,But More Hailerious Think Is Baadhshaho And G4 LB Prediction…..Where One Have Tramendious Buzz And Possible To Cross 100Cr,There Is 65,Fall Below From 75…Where Anothere Have 170 180 Range,There Is 200.! Lets Wait #Indicine Is Blockbuster On His Work
His fans said befikre flopped cos Srk is not in it lolz
A man of his intelligence and experience cannot tell what the audience wants and deserves. Honestly, SRK has left me speechless, in no good way.
Tubelight flop ho gayi…maza aa gaya..maza aa gaya…woh v EID per…maza aa gaya…TZH v flop hogi aur maza aayega..
Yeah my prediction was 78crs as well..flop it is…bad tyms continue for Bollywood..
Pack Up now.. era of khans is finished…only quality movies will be winners
@indicine team:don’t worry about fans (especially srk fans who always makes unrealistic estimates) n publish the figures according to ur surveys n experience. Now tube light n all akkis recent grossers seems like a blockbuster figures.srk in his favorite genre completely shocked trade n his fans.he went terribly wrong.
@indicine: I don’t think toilet will do 125 CR’s as its buzz is quite lower than jhms.as an akki fan I think it will do around 110 CR’s.
Indicine – You guys are awesome!
Now only TOH can save bollywood Aamir is only saving grace for bollywood
Why srk.why why… why do you selecting these type of movies…plz stop doing bloody romance… plz stop.. if you do romance movie any more, we dont watch your movies.
Agar is film Kaabil se clash hota to JHMS ka Life time collection 45cr bhi nahi hata. AUKAT ME RAHA KARO SRGAYIAN.
everybody say that srk came from a middle class family but i thik he forgot his past and always work for high class audience. and neglected normal audience
he is not smarter compare than salman, akki, and even ajay akki and salman are one of the intelligent actor in industry
when every body cash south remakes recipes including aamir with talash and akki, salu has long list even akki highest rowdy and ajay singham both have south remake successful movies in his career even in short we can say that south remake revived bollywood but that time srk foolishly doing classical don2 jhj etc..
when jai ho didn’t got good response than salman quickly changed his movie taste he choose desi emotional drama with comic like aamir doing with pk, 3ideots, and akki’s suddenly move towards desi deshbhakti types back to back successful movie now social issue like dangal he again coming with tepk
but srk still choose bad script and a flop director whoes movie has limited audience
some time earlier he did this mistake with hny by choosing joker maker farha khan but luckily hny worked due to weekend
same salman after tubelight came with TZH and same like aamir came earlier with dhoom franchise but srk again experiment with dwarf project which need lots of money in making
he forget the taste of india today a chaiwala became pm and a monk became cm so it’s clear deshbhakti plus social plus emotion got u success according to taste of people
wake up srk
Omg,in one of the previous article “youngsters fails,will srk deliver” just look the claims made by srk fans n level of criticism embarked upon indicine team !!!now I want to see those idiots .sharm SE doob Marne wali baat for them..
Lol some ppl were expecting to cross Tubelight by weekend… Now Tubelight is looking like Mt Everest…
@Indicine
Now plz stop giving excuses after excuses for Srk’s poor performance for a decade… Also stop calling him Superstar as well…
You were saying 1 film can change his fortunes for almost 5-6 years and before every release of his movies… Bohat ho gaya yaar, Plz stop believing in miracles yaar… Seems u too stuck in past juz like Srk… Dude it’s 2017 wake up…
I know Srk achieved great things in Indian Cinema but now like me everyone should also accept its end of the road for Srk…
Many Diehard Srk fans would also agree with me in this regard…
RIP Srk (as a superstar)
It will be bigger flop than Fan.
As a hard core SRK fan, I accept the failure. I am happy & sad too at the moment. Sad for failure & happy because this result force him to think seriously. I still hope one day he will come out with flying colour like he did with CE in 2013 (all time highest grosser at the time of released). ALR is known for his desi connection in his movies. So, Somehow it looks his coming project with SRK will be worth to wait.
Watched JAB HARRY MET SEJAL yesterday and being a shah rukh khan fan,it is disheartening to see your idol doing such mediocre film…It was way back in 2012 when he returned with jab tak hai jaan and from then his choice of films have been so poor..
He does not need to prove to the world that he is one of the few people from bollywood who has the combination of a megastar and a terrific actor..
Mr. khan u r at the stage where u can take your time to come up with some classic films.
Shah rukh khan should learn from his contemporaries like:- U don’t have to do over promotion for each films…Good films always do well at the box office…Aamir khan does not promote his movie the way you do but his films are always loved..
One thing that u can learn from salman khan is kissing in films r not required to sell it…
So Its high time that u come with some good films otherwise u r gonna lose your base audience also…
The movie has further dropped on Saturday
Tubelight was the riskiest film ever made…. still did 120 crores is big achievement itself…. if any other actor had done tubelight then 50 crores may not be touch…. hats off to salman for this courage for making such a riskiest movie
it was relesed on eid…otherwise it would never collect more than 60cr
I like SRK no doubt. But its so frustrating seeing him doing senseless films again and again. JHMS is a kind of film that doesn’t have the power to pull neutral audience to theatre. First half was bearable but second half was so boring. Hope he choses script more carefully now. JHMS is a kind of film that might work in the early 2000’s but in today’s time, people are more concious about good content. I would personally like him to do war epic movie that has a good action scence with patriotic feelings.
Salman is megastar….. Prooved.
Bravo indicine
I think srk fans should turn their back on him. He is a disappointment and making his fans fools in every movie they are watching it happily first day first show with a hope May be this one is good..
But srk is dead ..
Close the JHMS topic yar, It’s too much Now. Everyone is making fun of srk and imtiaz, I hate these haters and trollers.
Too much Negativity, I’m fed up.
The writing is on the wall…there were ominous signs from the very time this movie was announced. Imtiaz ali is a flop director. When the tentative title was “The Ring”, you could start feeling negative vibes. Then suddenly there was a news that title is changed to Rehnuma – sigh of relief…pleasant title, maybe the movie would also be pleasant…simple earthy love story between a tour guide n a tourist. Then the first look arrived- O O…foreign locales , urban look , alien treatment…YASRC ( yet another shitty rom com) shot abroad feel…then finally the official title announced- Jab Harry met Sejal….phussssssss….what ? When Harry met Sally? Jab we met? Haven’t the audience heard similar titles before…was Rehnuma not 10 times better than this? From there on, things started going only downwards…the mini trails, the sex n intercourse dialogues…some not so gud songs…some more songs…too many songs…one more song just the day before release..which was the crappiest of the lot…then the city tours, banarasi paan, all the frills….by now it was clear to all n sundry that this is just YASRC. Come Friday morning and the pre-release experience of the audience clearly reflects in the theatres…they are empty !! Sorry, all those frills are not enough to sell this YASRC to smartened audience. The writing is on the wall.
Is he still an important star? Sure! I’m not one of those who thinks Akshay is getting ahead of him. That’s never going to happen. All of Akshay’s hits prove this. However staying ahead of Akshay could hardly be the only game for SRK given all of his ‘royal’ claims in the past. And if he keeps this up he could still fall further. Akshay has at least stabilized himself. In any case a top star’s competition is with his past history and certainly with his immediate peers. It’s not about ‘hey at least I’m still better than most of the other stars’!
From ’88 (when he returned from a two year break) to ’92 Bachchan (when he left again for 5 years) was easily the top star in terms of initials. There was no one else even close. Similarly some of the final grosses were still remarkable on the failures or underperformers. Often among the top ones of the year. But it was clear that Bachchan was in decline. And we’re talking about Hindi cinema’s greatest star here! Again the fans would wait for the ‘next one’. Over time a pattern emerged. Bachchan too had important hits in this period. The Hum initial bordered on hysteria (I doubt there has been a stronger initial in Bombay cinema since, pound for pound), Aaj Ka Arjun was a big hit at the height of the Rath Yatra riots. Nonetheless there were a lot more underperformers and failures. Because Bachchan’s standard was an altogether different one. SRK was never in that sort of position but the logic is the same. A top star can keep doing high profile stuff for a while and put up numbers that flatter to deceive. Along the way there will also be a success or two but the tide will have turned against such a star. What’s happening to SRK isn’t even historically odd. What is odd though is Aamir’s extraordinary run and Salman’s sudden resurgence this late in his career. In most other cases those two would also be in the same boat.
I also wouldn’t blame SRK too much for his choices. He’s selected lousy scripts or poor directors or whatever but in fairness all stars do this. Aamir is the exception even by historical standards. Most stars don’t have any out of the ordinary script sense. When they’re successful they get the best productions, they do them, it’s not rocket science. When they need to reinvent themselves they don’t have the judgment because they’ve never had it. Consider the kinds of films Bachchan did (even in the 80s when these worked big time for him, most of the films aren’t a patch on his great 70s stuff, yes he got great success being the one man industry but that’s a testament to his gifts as an actor and a star not to his judgment, otherwise those gifts could have been put to better use in better films)! This is so for every other star too. Barring exceptions here and there. Aamir’s uncanny sense is truly unique. For any industry.
SRK too has wasted his stardom for at least a decade. He could have done way better in romance, way better on the masala-action terrain and so on. But again it always looks easier than it is. When a star is in decline he depends on an older loyal audience. But the strength genres don’t remain fashionable. The older audience is most invested in these. The star gets older, the genres become stale, the older audience cannot enjoy these efforts in the same way. Meanwhile the newer audience has never been on board for the older genres. The star then attempts newer genres but he’s not as convincing in them because he doesn’t have the same history with them. So newer audiences are still not persuaded and older ones still wait for KKHH2! This is why reinvention is always difficult. The star always falls between two stools.
Despite all this the media has throughout his career been rather kind to him. At his peak they never called him out for his failures and now for a decade they’ve just pretended he’s one of the ‘Khans’. Aamir was accepted as the biggest very late after he’d been delivering hit after hit for years and then the very biggest grossers. Salman too after extraordinary success. They never got this kind of pass earlier on!
Now it’s foolish to say ‘it’s over’ for SRK. But it’s equally foolish to say ‘he’s fine because he isn’t finished’. The two sides feed off each other’s exaggerations. I’ve felt for a while that SRK is in trouble. Again in that same relative sense. Those who don’t like him think JHMS proves everything. But those who are fans would have thought there were no problems at all if the film had done 200. One battles the other side’s fantasy with one’s own! I do believe JHMS, if it really does as badly as looks to be the case right now, does mark an important point. He now needs total reinvention. Certainly compared with Aamir or Salman the gulf is now wide. Incidentally I don’t really think playing the dwarf is going to save him.
All other discussions about his ‘intelligence’ (this too has been a selling point in the media and among the fans) are beside the point. He’s ‘so intelligent’ that he can’t manage his career better when he most needs to. This is his #1 job right? All his ‘marketing genius’ cannot get him films as acclaimed as Aamir’s nor even successes at the same level. We must stop disseminating these fairy tales. Finally about his being rich or richer than many other stars (admittedly Z insists on this the most), again I’m not sure what this has to do with his career (even assuming this is true and I personally think this is another fantasy). Being rich is a not a consolation prize for failing at the box office!
It’s still not too late for SRK but you don’t develop judgment all of a sudden or this late in the day. It’s true that all his younger peers aren’t doing any better. But the ‘I am the king’ spiel is now reduced to ‘hey I’m at least #3’! I doubt SRK is satisfied with this consolation prize either. Again to be clear SRK has enough history to keep going forward for a while. But being a defining star is something else. I don’t mean this only in the box office sense. With age stars can become defining in other ways. SRK has yet to make any such transition. And the stakes are high
It was very clear that makers knew their Product was poor when they ran away from clash with Toilet-EPK…
I know you will Srk fans will call JHMS a niche film but should a star not help it push above 100 crore if he is in top 3. 70 crores and all is also managed by Ranbir in Rockstar and Tamasha and Ranveer in Dil Dhadakne Do…In fact niche urban movies like Barfi did 100 plus and ZNMD did 90 plus…This is really shocking
I know Srk fans will call JHMS a niche film but should a star not help it push above 100 crore if he is in top 3. 70 crores and all is also managed by Ranbir in Rockstar and Tamasha and Ranveer in Dil Dhadakne Do…In fact niche urban movies like Barfi did 100 plus and ZNMD did 90 plus…This is really shocking
this movie is just shit…….