Ek Tha Tiger HIT or FLOP: Box Office Prediction

With less than 4 days to go for release, the excitement for Ek Tha Tiger is building up. All eyes are on the box-office though, as the film made on a budget of Rs 75 crores – costliest film ever produced by Yashraj Films – is expected to shatter opening day, weekend and first week records. Read more on the records that the film chases.

As expected for a solo-festive-release, featuring two of the biggest stars in the industry, Ek Tha Tiger will have the widest release ever. The film is expected to release on about 4000 screens worldwide (around 3400 in India).

Time for the HIT or Flop box office predictions then. Read on..

Opening Day: Ek Tha Tiger is almost certain to go past the opening day collections of Agneepath, as the hike in ticket prices and increase in number of screens should help a great deal. The jump from Dabangg (2010) to Bodyguard (2011) was 40%. If ETT manages the same, first day should be 29 crores. So, irrespective of how the response is, we expect Day 1 of ETT to be somewhere between 25-29 crores.

Note: In the predictions below, weekend is the first 5 days (Wed – Sunday). And weekday figures include the holiday on Monday for EID.

IF GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

• Weekend – 100 crores
• Weekdays – 45 crores
• Week 1 Total – 145 crores
• Final – 200 crores+ (Blockbuster HIT)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

• Weekend – 90 crores
• Weekdays – 35 crores
• Week 1 Total – 125 crores
• Final – 160 crores (Superhit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

• Weekend – 75 crores
• Weekdays – 25 crores
• Week 1 Total – 100 crores
• Final – 120 crore (Above-average)

In short, if the content is good, Ek Tha Tiger should beat the 200 crore record of 3 Idiots. If the response is mixed (most likely for such a big release), it should comfortably beat the lifetime collections of Bodyguard and Dabangg (the second and third biggest grossers respectively).

In the worst case scenario, it should trend similar to Ra One during Diwali last year and attain Above average / HIT status even if it’s rejected.

What do you think? Tell us in the comments section below.