Bajrangi Bhaijaan Hit or Flop: Box Office Prediction

The first festival release of the year is finally here and it’s Salman Khan who yet again returns during the auspicious weekend of Eid, to re-establish his supremacy at the box office.

Quite a few big films have released in the first half of 2015, but it was Varun Dhawan’s ‘ABCD 2’ that took the biggest opening so far this year. The current record of Rs 14.3 crore set by ‘ABCD 2’ is likely to be doubled by ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan’.

A quick look at the opening day figures of Eid releases in the last few years, reveals that the year-on-year growth was staggering between 2010 to 2012, but has slowed down in the last couple of years. Do note that all films, except last year’s KICK, released on or after the Eid holiday.

  • 2010: Dabangg (1800 screens) – 14.5 crore
  • 2011: Bodyguard (2250 screens) – 21 crore (45% growth)
  • 2012: Ek Tha Tiger (3300 screens) – 32.9 crore (56% growth)
  • 2013: Chennai Express (3700 screens) – 33.12 crore (0.6% growth)
  • 2014: Kick (4000 screens) – 26.52 cr (20% drop. Pre Eid)

KICK released on a working day, during Ramadan, when majority of muslim audience don’t watch films in theatres. The benefit of a holiday, as per our estimates, is around 35% . So Salman’s last Eid release cannot really be compared with films that released between 2010-2013.

Moving on to this year’s ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan’, the film is set for a huge opening at the box office tomorrow and the advance booking is by far the best for films released this year.

As part of IndicineFBO, our opening day predictions of films, we expect Bajrangi Bhaijaan to collect around 30-31 crore on Day 1. If the film does manage to collect 30 crore+ on its first day, it will be considered outstanding because of two reasons. One, like last year’s Kick, Bajrangi Bhaijaan too is releasing on a working day during the Ramadan period. Secondly, last week’s Telugu film ‘Baahubali: The Beginning’ is on a historic run at the box office. The strong hold of the film during the weekdays, has meant that exhibitors have given the film enough number of shows this week too. In circuits like Andhra/Nizam and Mysore, ‘Baahubali’ will definitely affect the collections of the Salman Khan starrer.

Check out the #IndicineFBO table below

MoviePredictionOfficial
Tevar6.57.05 cr+ 8%
Alone43.50 cr- 12%
Hawaizaada1.250.6 cr- 52%
Khamoshiyan1.751.92 cr+ 9%
Baby8.59.30 cr+ 9%
Dolly Ki Doli1.61.75 cr+ 9%
Shamitabh4.03.5 cr- 12%
Roy8.510.4+ 22%
Badlapur6.57 cr+ 7%
Dum Laga Ke Haisha1.251.1- 12%
Ab Tak Chhappan 21.11.25+ 13%
NH102.753.35+ 22%
Detective Byomkesh Bakshy4.54.25- 5%
Ek Paheli Leela5.255.30+ 1%
Mr X4.24.5+ 7%
Margarita With A Straw0.20.23+ 1%
Gabbar Is Back1313.050%
Piku5.55.32- 3%
Bombay Velvet9.55.2- 45%
Tanu Weds Manu Returns7.058.85+ 25%
Welcome To Karachi1.51.50%
Dil Dhadakne Do9.510.53+ 11%
Hamari Adhuri Kahani5.755.04- 12%
ABCD 212.514.3+ 14%
Bajrangi Bhaijaan30.427.25- 10%
Drishyam5.255.3+ 1%
Bangistan2.51.1- 56%
Brothers15.515.2- 2%
All Is Well3.12.9- 6%
Manjhi1.41.40%
Phantom7.68.4611%
Welcome Back11.514.35+ 24%
Hero7.56.85- 8%
Katti Batti4.65.28- 14%
Calendar Girls1.51.50%
Kis Kisko Pyaar Karoon4.510.15+ 125%
Singh Is Bling18.620.67+11%
Talvar3.33.0-9%
Jazbaa4.54.23-6%
Pyaar Ka Punchnama 23.36.80+ 103%
Shaandaar14.713.1-11%
Prem Ratan Dhan Payo43.641.75-4%
Tamasha11.710.877%
Hate Story 39.49.723%
Dilwale25.221- 16%
Bajirao Mastani11.512.8+ 11%

Check out the detailed box office predictions of Bajrangi Bhaijaan

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

  • Day 1 – 31 cr
  • Day 2 – 40 cr
  • Day 3 – 34 cr (Sunday)
  • Weekend – 105 cr
  • First Week – 165 cr
  • Final – 250 cr+ (Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

  • Day 1 – 30 cr
  • Day 2 – 38 cr
  • Day 3 – 32 cr (Sunday)
  • Weekend – 100 cr
  • First Week – 150 cr
  • Final – 210 cr (Super Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

  • Day 1 – 29 cr
  • Day 2 – 34 cr
  • Day 3 – 27 cr (Sunday)
  • Weekend – 90 cr
  • First Week – 125 cr
  • Lifetime – 155 cr (Average +)

Some other points

  • Bajrangi Bhaijaan Screen count : 4100 screens + 700 screen overseas
  • Bajrangi Bhaijaan Advance Booking: Outstanding.
  • Bajrangi Bhaijaan Budget – 90 crore (approx)
  • Releasing on non-holiday and Ramadan period
  • 2nd and 3rd day of release is national holiday for Eid and Sunday. Huge advantage if the word of mouth is excellent.
  • No competition from major films for 2 weeks.
  • First Salman film is almost a year.
  • The last mass entertainer that featured a massy-hero and brought back the single-screen audience was Gabbar Is Back, even though Tanu Weds Manu Returns and ABCD 2 did well at single-screens.

What are your expectations from Salman Khan’s Bajrangi Bhaijaan? How much do you think the film will collect at the box office. Will it be a flop, hit or a blockbuster? Tell us in the comments section below.

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136 Comments

  • Honest prediction….!!
    1st day : 26 crore
    weekend : 90 crore
    1st week : 150 crore
    lifetime : 190 crore to 210 crore

  • There u go .. opening day figures increasing to 31.. I still believe this film will surprise us all n do better coz its not an out n out single screen friendly salman film n multiplex audiences 4 a change will luv a salman film more n so more collections!!

  • It might flop at box office becoz the excitement is dead …..????
    our bhai can never break dhoom 3’s record never not even in 2017 lol !

  • Prediction for Bajrangi Bhaijaan

    Friday – 35cr+
    Saturday- 50cr
    Sunday – 55cr
    1WEEKEND- 140cr
    Monday – 25cr
    Tuesday – 20cr
    Wednesday – 18cr
    Thursday – 15cr
    1Week – 210cr
    2week- 70cr
    Rest – 50cr
    Total life time – 330cr

    Don’t underestimate Bajrangi Bhaijaan
    It’s Sure shot all time blockbuster
    Mind it

  • Leave ett,it can’t even break 26cr of kick.if it will break until and unless sallu will do manipulation.no strong buzz,lifetime around 180-200 cry,verdict—-flop.

    After bhojpuri bhaujaan prdp will collect hardly 120cr,salman’s career will be finished on NEXT EID by RAEES BHAI —- THE KING OF BOLLYWOOD.

  • all time blockbuster..
    first day 35+ cr…
    second day 45+ cr (eid)
    third day 40 cr
    weekend 120+ cr
    first week 210 cr
    lifetime 370-400cr
    (positive wom as some reviews are already out & they are extremely positive)
    all records will shattered one by one….
    wait & watch

  • My prediction for bajrangi bhaijan (if WOM is very good):
    1st day- 32cr
    2nd day- 45cr (if eid fall).
    3rd day- 38cr
    1st weekend- 115cr.
    1st week- 180cr.
    Lifetime- 280cr+.

  • so clear indication of indicine team that this movie can’t even cross dhoom 3 ,forget about 300cr.my prediction is something around 220-250cr.
    in eastern part including my state,Andhra Pradesh,Tamil nadu,mysore,kerala and bangalore bb won’t compete with bahubali I bet you.after all best of luck salman khan fans

  • Bhojpuri bhaijaan—-180-200cr—-verdict-flop

    Neil not in bhai bachao—-120cr—-verdict—-flop/disaster

    Finally bhai’s game will be finished forever on next EID by RAEES BHAI—-THE KING OF BOLLYWOOD.

    THE KING OF CLASH IS WAITING FOR EVERYONE TO THRASH,COME ON.

  • Dont forget dostoo BBhaijan ki movie hae so all salman’s fan make sure blockbuster hae shart lagalo bhale

  • My predictons for bajrangi bhaijaan
    if postive word of mouth
    1st day=30cr
    2nd day=45cr
    3rd=39cr
    first weekend=114cr
    first week=180cr
    lifetime=270cr

    if average
    1st=30
    2nd=41
    3rd=35
    weekend=106
    first week=160
    lifetime 230cr

    if negative
    1st=29
    2nd=36
    3rd=31
    weekend=96
    first week=130
    lifetime 170cr

  • After watching ?#?BajrangiBhaijaan? I can say only this tat if you have not watched this film then you have not watched best film of your life.- KRK

  • In India if film is religion then Salman is god. His bulk fans do not use twitter comes to hall to make his film blockbuster.

  • @Sss: if 90cr budgeted BB bcm flop with 200cr collections then 120 budgeted hny was a disaster because it collected only 180cr(trade fig)…

  • @indicine I think 238 crores above is okay to be declared a Blockbuster.
    Anys, I give it 242 crores with strong w.o.m n rich content.

  • indicine… in other article u said kick collection of 26.52cr is outstandin considerin pre eid non holiday.. if it was holiday it would have done 45cr… now ur sayin holiday benifit is only 35% that is some what 35.8cr huh… y this double standard…. n wht only 34cr on sunday in good wom huh… wel u predicted hny 40cr for sun … wel we all knw post day eid will always collect huge…. nw its being post eid on sun ur predictin only 34cr lol…… why u always predict low numbers to other star movie n very high number srk movie… u predicted hny 275cr+ in very good wom n kick 230cr+ …. . kick had very gud wom but still it collected 233cr in mixed to gud wom…. hny collected 204cr with mixed to gud wom but u predicted 230cr only in mix wom… nw dnt say hny had bad wom bcoz u gave 4 star same as kick… well all i can say show some neutrality in prediction… dnt be everytime baised to srk.. or else name it SRKCINE INSTEAD OF INDICINE….

  • @Javed, so you predict more than 200cr for BB. But your star’s multistarer hny was able to collect only 180cr…lol.

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