The first festival release of the year is finally here and it’s Salman Khan who yet again returns during the auspicious weekend of Eid, to re-establish his supremacy at the box office.
Quite a few big films have released in the first half of 2015, but it was Varun Dhawan’s ‘ABCD 2’ that took the biggest opening so far this year. The current record of Rs 14.3 crore set by ‘ABCD 2’ is likely to be doubled by ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan’.
A quick look at the opening day figures of Eid releases in the last few years, reveals that the year-on-year growth was staggering between 2010 to 2012, but has slowed down in the last couple of years. Do note that all films, except last year’s KICK, released on or after the Eid holiday.
- 2010: Dabangg (1800 screens) – 14.5 crore
- 2011: Bodyguard (2250 screens) – 21 crore (45% growth)
- 2012: Ek Tha Tiger (3300 screens) – 32.9 crore (56% growth)
- 2013: Chennai Express (3700 screens) – 33.12 crore (0.6% growth)
- 2014: Kick (4000 screens) – 26.52 cr (20% drop. Pre Eid)
KICK released on a working day, during Ramadan, when majority of muslim audience don’t watch films in theatres. The benefit of a holiday, as per our estimates, is around 35% . So Salman’s last Eid release cannot really be compared with films that released between 2010-2013.
Moving on to this year’s ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan’, the film is set for a huge opening at the box office tomorrow and the advance booking is by far the best for films released this year.
As part of IndicineFBO, our opening day predictions of films, we expect Bajrangi Bhaijaan to collect around 30-31 crore on Day 1. If the film does manage to collect 30 crore+ on its first day, it will be considered outstanding because of two reasons. One, like last year’s Kick, Bajrangi Bhaijaan too is releasing on a working day during the Ramadan period. Secondly, last week’s Telugu film ‘Baahubali: The Beginning’ is on a historic run at the box office. The strong hold of the film during the weekdays, has meant that exhibitors have given the film enough number of shows this week too. In circuits like Andhra/Nizam and Mysore, ‘Baahubali’ will definitely affect the collections of the Salman Khan starrer.
Check out the #IndicineFBO table below
|Tevar||6.5||7.05 cr||+ 8%|
|Alone||4||3.50 cr||- 12%|
|Hawaizaada||1.25||0.6 cr||- 52%|
|Khamoshiyan||1.75||1.92 cr||+ 9%|
|Baby||8.5||9.30 cr||+ 9%|
|Dolly Ki Doli||1.6||1.75 cr||+ 9%|
|Shamitabh||4.0||3.5 cr||- 12%|
|Badlapur||6.5||7 cr||+ 7%|
|Dum Laga Ke Haisha||1.25||1.1||- 12%|
|Ab Tak Chhappan 2||1.1||1.25||+ 13%|
|Detective Byomkesh Bakshy||4.5||4.25||- 5%|
|Ek Paheli Leela||5.25||5.30||+ 1%|
|Mr X||4.2||4.5||+ 7%|
|Margarita With A Straw||0.2||0.23||+ 1%|
|Gabbar Is Back||13||13.05||0%|
|Bombay Velvet||9.5||5.2||- 45%|
|Tanu Weds Manu Returns||7.05||8.85||+ 25%|
|Welcome To Karachi||1.5||1.5||0%|
|Dil Dhadakne Do||9.5||10.53||+ 11%|
|Hamari Adhuri Kahani||5.75||5.04||- 12%|
|ABCD 2||12.5||14.3||+ 14%|
|Bajrangi Bhaijaan||30.4||27.25||- 10%|
|All Is Well||3.1||2.9||- 6%|
|Welcome Back||11.5||14.35||+ 24%|
|Katti Batti||4.6||5.28||- 14%|
|Kis Kisko Pyaar Karoon||4.5||10.15||+ 125%|
|Singh Is Bling||18.6||20.67||+11%|
|Pyaar Ka Punchnama 2||3.3||6.80||+ 103%|
|Prem Ratan Dhan Payo||43.6||41.75||-4%|
|Hate Story 3||9.4||9.72||3%|
|Bajirao Mastani||11.5||12.8||+ 11%|
Check out the detailed box office predictions of Bajrangi Bhaijaan
IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)
- Day 1 – 31 cr
- Day 2 – 40 cr
- Day 3 – 34 cr (Sunday)
- Weekend – 105 cr
- First Week – 165 cr
- Final – 250 cr+ (Blockbuster)
IF AVERAGE (mixed response)
- Day 1 – 30 cr
- Day 2 – 38 cr
- Day 3 – 32 cr (Sunday)
- Weekend – 100 cr
- First Week – 150 cr
- Final – 210 cr (Super Hit)
IF BAD (worst case scenario)
- Day 1 – 29 cr
- Day 2 – 34 cr
- Day 3 – 27 cr (Sunday)
- Weekend – 90 cr
- First Week – 125 cr
- Lifetime – 155 cr (Average +)
Some other points
- Bajrangi Bhaijaan Screen count : 4100 screens + 700 screen overseas
- Bajrangi Bhaijaan Advance Booking: Outstanding.
- Bajrangi Bhaijaan Budget – 90 crore (approx)
- Releasing on non-holiday and Ramadan period
- 2nd and 3rd day of release is national holiday for Eid and Sunday. Huge advantage if the word of mouth is excellent.
- No competition from major films for 2 weeks.
- First Salman film is almost a year.
- The last mass entertainer that featured a massy-hero and brought back the single-screen audience was Gabbar Is Back, even though Tanu Weds Manu Returns and ABCD 2 did well at single-screens.
What are your expectations from Salman Khan’s Bajrangi Bhaijaan? How much do you think the film will collect at the box office. Will it be a flop, hit or a blockbuster? Tell us in the comments section below.
it will be all time blockbuster opening day will be 32 crore and i will not available tomorrow 11 to 4 pm.
It will never collect 40 cr on single day. It’s sure shot.
1st day. 27 Cr .
1st weekend. 93 cr.
1st week. 145 cr.
Lifetime. 180-190 cr .
Atbb for sure
With positive wom day3-34(sunday)
Indicine is a real akshay hater…brothers will get 15 crore opening …nyc joke..it will get atleast 23-25 crore…just wait and watch
How dare you @indicine to write flop word beside bhaijan films
come on its not ra-one
Whatever 30cr or 20cr.
We are waiting for #Raees Teaser tonight
ONLY KING KHAN RULES!!
Bajrangi bhaijaan Lifetime
280- 305 cr
Day 1: 30 cr
Day 2: 45 cr
Day 3: 38 cr
First weekend: 113 cr
First week: 170
2nd week: 70 cr
3rd week: 30 cr
Remaining: 20 cr
Total: 290 cr
With avg and +ve wom the sunday collections r the same.lol..sunday is eid day…it wil collect 45+ on sunday
It will be all time Blockbuster
It will not be a content – driven movie…….!!…
It will be regular bhai masala….!!…
I m not saying it is bad movie…..!!…
But Catch Bahubali instead…..!!…
@ indicine what is average ticket price for bajrangi? for kick it was 140 rs. and for jai ho 120 rs.
300cr guranteed.reviews r excellent.
BB is a fun family entertainer so 300crs
All time history blockbuster confirm first day will be 34cr.
Will open big I think. Let’s see if it can do 35Cr first day
I HOPE #BB WON’T CROSS 35CR+ ON DAY-1, OR ELSE SAROOK WILL RELEASE #CRAPWALE TEASER ON SATURDAY…
Saturday -45 sunday-42 monday-25 1st week-203cr
30 cr plus opening
100 cr weekend confirmed
200 minimam lifetime for salman only
after 200 cr collection its depend on movie quality and content
Bollywood in june…..
Ddd – Flop….. (pc, anu,, farhan starrer…..) (70cr….) budget= 105cr… huge promotion……
hak – below avg/avg……
Abcd2 – hit…. !!…
Lets see what BB can do…..
From now 6 movies in total for both srk and salman in a year aahhh true superstars not like amir and hr who try to made thier movie an event bollywood dreams day are coming from now 6 200crrs+ movies from this july to other best of luck
With good wom Bajrangi bhaijaan will do 275crs
no chance for a flop so dont ask hit or flop
It will take a Decade for sallu to break SRK’s opening day record=45cr
Report is that BB is a heart touching film chance to break pk record
tomarrow first day first show
If word of mouth is very good then movie will surely collect 300ce+.
BB friday 27 vr sat 33 cr sun 35 cr weekend 95cr
lifetime 220cr max