The first festival release of the year is finally here and it’s Salman Khan who yet again returns during the auspicious weekend of Eid, to re-establish his supremacy at the box office.
Quite a few big films have released in the first half of 2015, but it was Varun Dhawan’s ‘ABCD 2’ that took the biggest opening so far this year. The current record of Rs 14.3 crore set by ‘ABCD 2’ is likely to be doubled by ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan’.
A quick look at the opening day figures of Eid releases in the last few years, reveals that the year-on-year growth was staggering between 2010 to 2012, but has slowed down in the last couple of years. Do note that all films, except last year’s KICK, released on or after the Eid holiday.
- 2010: Dabangg (1800 screens) – 14.5 crore
- 2011: Bodyguard (2250 screens) – 21 crore (45% growth)
- 2012: Ek Tha Tiger (3300 screens) – 32.9 crore (56% growth)
- 2013: Chennai Express (3700 screens) – 33.12 crore (0.6% growth)
- 2014: Kick (4000 screens) – 26.52 cr (20% drop. Pre Eid)
KICK released on a working day, during Ramadan, when majority of muslim audience don’t watch films in theatres. The benefit of a holiday, as per our estimates, is around 35% . So Salman’s last Eid release cannot really be compared with films that released between 2010-2013.
Moving on to this year’s ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan’, the film is set for a huge opening at the box office tomorrow and the advance booking is by far the best for films released this year.
As part of IndicineFBO, our opening day predictions of films, we expect Bajrangi Bhaijaan to collect around 30-31 crore on Day 1. If the film does manage to collect 30 crore+ on its first day, it will be considered outstanding because of two reasons. One, like last year’s Kick, Bajrangi Bhaijaan too is releasing on a working day during the Ramadan period. Secondly, last week’s Telugu film ‘Baahubali: The Beginning’ is on a historic run at the box office. The strong hold of the film during the weekdays, has meant that exhibitors have given the film enough number of shows this week too. In circuits like Andhra/Nizam and Mysore, ‘Baahubali’ will definitely affect the collections of the Salman Khan starrer.
Check out the #IndicineFBO table below
Movie | Prediction | Official | |
Tevar | 6.5 | 7.05 cr | + 8% |
Alone | 4 | 3.50 cr | - 12% |
Hawaizaada | 1.25 | 0.6 cr | - 52% |
Khamoshiyan | 1.75 | 1.92 cr | + 9% |
Baby | 8.5 | 9.30 cr | + 9% |
Dolly Ki Doli | 1.6 | 1.75 cr | + 9% |
Shamitabh | 4.0 | 3.5 cr | - 12% |
Roy | 8.5 | 10.4 | + 22% |
Badlapur | 6.5 | 7 cr | + 7% |
Dum Laga Ke Haisha | 1.25 | 1.1 | - 12% |
Ab Tak Chhappan 2 | 1.1 | 1.25 | + 13% |
NH10 | 2.75 | 3.35 | + 22% |
Detective Byomkesh Bakshy | 4.5 | 4.25 | - 5% |
Ek Paheli Leela | 5.25 | 5.30 | + 1% |
Mr X | 4.2 | 4.5 | + 7% |
Margarita With A Straw | 0.2 | 0.23 | + 1% |
Gabbar Is Back | 13 | 13.05 | 0% |
Piku | 5.5 | 5.32 | - 3% |
Bombay Velvet | 9.5 | 5.2 | - 45% |
Tanu Weds Manu Returns | 7.05 | 8.85 | + 25% |
Welcome To Karachi | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0% |
Dil Dhadakne Do | 9.5 | 10.53 | + 11% |
Hamari Adhuri Kahani | 5.75 | 5.04 | - 12% |
ABCD 2 | 12.5 | 14.3 | + 14% |
Bajrangi Bhaijaan | 30.4 | 27.25 | - 10% |
Drishyam | 5.25 | 5.3 | + 1% |
Bangistan | 2.5 | 1.1 | - 56% |
Brothers | 15.5 | 15.2 | - 2% |
All Is Well | 3.1 | 2.9 | - 6% |
Manjhi | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0% |
Phantom | 7.6 | 8.46 | 11% |
Welcome Back | 11.5 | 14.35 | + 24% |
Hero | 7.5 | 6.85 | - 8% |
Katti Batti | 4.6 | 5.28 | - 14% |
Calendar Girls | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0% |
Kis Kisko Pyaar Karoon | 4.5 | 10.15 | + 125% |
Singh Is Bling | 18.6 | 20.67 | +11% |
Talvar | 3.3 | 3.0 | -9% |
Jazbaa | 4.5 | 4.23 | -6% |
Pyaar Ka Punchnama 2 | 3.3 | 6.80 | + 103% |
Shaandaar | 14.7 | 13.1 | -11% |
Prem Ratan Dhan Payo | 43.6 | 41.75 | -4% |
Tamasha | 11.7 | 10.87 | 7% |
Hate Story 3 | 9.4 | 9.72 | 3% |
Dilwale | 25.2 | 21 | - 16% |
Bajirao Mastani | 11.5 | 12.8 | + 11% |
Check out the detailed box office predictions of Bajrangi Bhaijaan
IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)
- Day 1 – 31 cr
- Day 2 – 40 cr
- Day 3 – 34 cr (Sunday)
- Weekend – 105 cr
- First Week – 165 cr
- Final – 250 cr+ (Blockbuster)
IF AVERAGE (mixed response)
- Day 1 – 30 cr
- Day 2 – 38 cr
- Day 3 – 32 cr (Sunday)
- Weekend – 100 cr
- First Week – 150 cr
- Final – 210 cr (Super Hit)
IF BAD (worst case scenario)
- Day 1 – 29 cr
- Day 2 – 34 cr
- Day 3 – 27 cr (Sunday)
- Weekend – 90 cr
- First Week – 125 cr
- Lifetime – 155 cr (Average +)
Some other points
- Bajrangi Bhaijaan Screen count : 4100 screens + 700 screen overseas
- Bajrangi Bhaijaan Advance Booking: Outstanding.
- Bajrangi Bhaijaan Budget – 90 crore (approx)
- Releasing on non-holiday and Ramadan period
- 2nd and 3rd day of release is national holiday for Eid and Sunday. Huge advantage if the word of mouth is excellent.
- No competition from major films for 2 weeks.
- First Salman film is almost a year.
- The last mass entertainer that featured a massy-hero and brought back the single-screen audience was Gabbar Is Back, even though Tanu Weds Manu Returns and ABCD 2 did well at single-screens.
What are your expectations from Salman Khan’s Bajrangi Bhaijaan? How much do you think the film will collect at the box office. Will it be a flop, hit or a blockbuster? Tell us in the comments section below.
flop filme
@gj007 I also hate Salman Criminal Khan. The way he is criminalising bollywood with his crap films and bringing other criminals here, I think some day there will be blood!
@yuvraj you shut your crappy mouth up criminal fan! You should feel ashamed supporting a criminal all the day.
it will be the highest grossing film and no film can defeat the bajrangi bhaijaan
@Navin
too long, didnt read. lol
my predction
day ist 30cr
2nd 40
3rd 38
weekend 108
ist week 180
2nd week 80
lifetime 300
@ – k. a. fan- I dont beleive in any law because i beleive in nature. just open your mind and think how many crime you did in your life not acording to indian law but acording to nature and your mind.
Bahubali…has already nailed this BHAI..BHAIYYA type movie…& its going to nail it harder…shd be a flop…BAHUBALI…ROCKS..Greatest indian movie..till date.
@indicine no update on this page after twmr?? http://www.indicine.com/movies/bollywood/bollywood-movies-budget-and-collections-year-2015/
Super movie don’t miss to watch if u really an Indian
1st day – 28cr
2nd day-35cr
3rd day – 36cr
no doubt 100% flop film its an open challange to salman khan and his fans
flop sure no doubt its over salman u now can just give a flop nt a hit 1 day 25 cr 2 day 22cr 3 day 17cr just 80 to 100 cr
@GJ420, yes please don’t read, because that’s the definition of a true chameleon which you are.
all time blockbuster love you salman