AskIndicine: Mohenjo Daro and Rustom special live now

Two big films – Hrithik Roshan’s Mohenjo Daro and Akshay Kumar’s Rustom – are scheduled to release this week. So like the last ‘Sultan’ special that we did a couple of days before the release of the Salman Khan starrer, this week’s AskIndicine will be dedicated to Mohenjo Daro and Rustom.

Only questions related to the two films or its actors / directors, will be answered.

Post your questions in the comments section below. Today’s session of AskIndicine begins at 2PM Indian Standard Time.

Q. Rustom is looking damn good and I think it may do business around 130-150 Cr. What is your prediction?

A. Rustom is a niche film, targeted at audience mainly at metro and a few other big cities. So 130 – 150 crore is a near-impossible range, more so when it’ll be up against a big film like ‘Mohenjo Daro’. Even ‘Airlift’ with excellent word-of-mouth and weak competition (Kya Kool Hai Hum 3), failed to cross the 130 crore mark. The first target for ‘Rustom’ would be to cross the 80 crore mark, the second would be 100 crore – which would make it a big success.

Q. Do you think Rustom can open bigger than Mohenjo Daro?

A. It has a good chance now to take a better opening than Mohenjo Daro. It’ll be close, but Rustom could sneak ahead. A lot will depend on the word-of-mouth too, because the upward trend can begin as early as Friday evening at multiplexes. It’s going to be a difficult FBO prediction, but something that we can say with more certainty now is that both films won’t open above 15 crore. It’s likely to be in the 12-13 crore range.

Q. What do you think about the support Rustom is getting from Bollywood actors/actress while Mohan Jo Daro isn’t getting. Although only content will decide the fate of both movies, but because of better received trailer and popular music how much these promotions will boost Rustom buzz and hamper Mohenjo Daro.

A. It’s upto the celebrities which film they want to support, there is no need to judge them. The fact that Kumar Mangat is distributing Rustom has helped the film garner industry and trade support. On the other hand, Mohenjo Daro is a UTV film and there is a section of the trade that is anti-corporates / corporates taking over the industry. This isn’t really a Akshay vs Hrithik war, both are two of the nicest people in the industry and both have tremendous respect for each other. However, the makers of Rustom haven’t really put a foot wrong, their release strategy and marketing campaign has lifted the film. Rustom has the edge right now, both the pre-release buzz and costs are in its favour, but eventually content is the king and that’ll decide the fate of both films.

Q. If Mohenjo Daro loses the clash, do you think it will affect badly Kaabil in its clash vs Raees ? And also, why do big movies only look for a good release period when films like Tanu Weds Manu Returns did great without a big holiday?

A. It’s too early to call the clash. Mohenjo Daro is a big film and Ashutosh Gowariker is one of the most acclaimed directors we have in the industry. It has every chance of working if the film is liked by the audience. But suppose Mohenjo Daro underperforms, it wouldn’t make a big difference to the clash between Kaabil and Raees. Both are films featuring established superstars, Shah Rukh will be coming after FAN too, so the trailer of both films will decide. The best thing to do is to avert the clash. Republic Day weekend is not a big holiday. If the makers of either film is confident of the film they’ve made, it’s better to release it on a normal weekend – even if it’s a couple of weeks later.

Q. If Mohenjo daro collects 200 crore business then what the verdict for the film?

A. Super Hit / Blockbuster – depending on overseas performance. If Mohenjo Daro is an entertaining film with an interesting story to tell, it has the potential to turn things around like Bajirao Mastani did. Even Bajirao Mastani releasing on the same day as Dilwale was considered to be suicidal, but there is nothing in the industry – not even star power – that’s more powerful than positive word-of-mouth.

Q. What is censor board report of Rustom?

A. Has there ever been a media report of the censor board not liking a film? Articles that the Censor Board gave a stand ovation etc, are PR articles. Don’t believe it. The most accurate report is that of the audience , which only comes on Friday morning.

Q. Rate the promotions of Rustom and Mohenjo Daro.. currently who is ahead in the battle? When will you update your LBO prediction?

A. Rustom has been promoted well, can’t say the same about Mohenjo Daro. A bit of damage control has been done after the kind of response that the trailer got, but it’s still not where it should be with around 5 days to go for release. So Rustom has definitely taken the lead. You can check LBO prediction here.

Q. What if both the films get a super positive response!! Which one will earn more? Your take?

A. If both films are extremely well-received, then Mohenjo Daro will be the bigger grosser by a distance. It should appeal to a wider section of the audience.

Q. What about screen count of both movies?

A. We’ll announce the final screen count on Wednesday.

Q. Isn’t Hrithik’s absence from the large screen dipping his stardom? Like Sunny Deol who just let his superstardom slip?

A. The problem with doing 1 film in 1.5 – 2 years is, you got to make it count like Aamir Khan does. The risk is too high and if out of nowhere you get a serious competitor on the same day as your film, the risk is even higher. It’s better to have atleast one release every year, an average of two films in 18 months is better.

Q. What will be break even scenario for both the movies? and do u think will these two movies are capable to break the combine collection of DILWALE and BM?

A. The combined business of Bajirao Mastani and Dilwale was around Rs 340 crore. It was during the best release period in the year (Christmas), which has plenty of holidays and 3 open weeks. Rustom and Mohenjo Daro would be looking at around 220 – 225 crore combined. But if both films are very well-received it could be in the 250 crore range.

Q. On paper everything was going in favour of Mohenjo Daro except high budget. Star power,Director, Genre, Music Director, Hrithik’s come back after almost 2 years, actor-director last film was successful, every aspect with MD. On the other hand, Rustom was a dark thriller (limited appeal),with an ordinary director .But come to last week before release everything is levelled between the two. Although MD trailer was little bit below expectation but it wasn’t bad one, Music was excellent so what exactly went wrong for Mohenjo Daro? Leave industry and social media negativity – how is people craze towards Mohenjodaro?

A. The craze and excitement that we usually associate with a Hrithik Roshan film or even a big film, is clearly missing for Mohenjo Daro. It just goes to show the importance of a trailer for films like ‘Mohenjo Daro’. If the trailer had managed to create a big impact, then the scenario would be completely different right now. Rustom’s trailer was not only liked, but it has managed to create quite a bit of curiosity amongst the audience too. The makers have also clearly marketed the film. Not many are even aware that the director of the film is Tinu Suresh Desai. Most think, the director of the film is Neeraj Pandey.

Take a look at the poster below and see what catches your eye.. “From the Makers of Special 26 and Baby” (both Neeraj Pandey films), Akshay is the face of the poster, they have tried to create curiosity using words like “Patriot”, “Murder”, “Traitor”, “3 bullets”, “inspired by true incidents” (genre which is working at multiplexes). If you look more closely, you’ll find Neeraj Pandey’s Rustom almost everywhere. Once the film is out, you’ll hear a lot more about Tinu Suresh Desai. Until then, the makers would like you to believe it’s a Akshay – Neeraj Pandey film.

Q. Why are verdicts so complicated – Some say average, others say success, semi hit.. Don’t u think Disaster, Flop, Hit, Superhit and Blockbuster are enough?

A. A film that has just about recovered costs, but failed to earn profits.. cannot be declared a outright flop. At the same time, a film like Dilwale which has earned nearly 400 crore worldwide, was profitable for the producers, but loss-making for the domestic distributors – cannot be called a outright hit either. Since it’s not always straight forward and because there are a lot of factors involved, we have verdicts like Average and Semi Hit.

Q. Who is bigger star according to you Akshay or Hrithik?

A. Hrithik Roshan. Bigger star always depends on actors who have given the biggest opening. While almost every Hrithik film has opened well on Friday morning, many have taken excellent / bumper opening. He’s also delivered the highest single day and highest opening day quite a few times in his career. Even his lifetime collection record is good, with three highest grossers of the year. Bang Bang still remains the highest opening for a film that was involved in a box office clash.

Q. Why is the response to the music of Mohenjo Daro so dull despite AR Rehman being the music director?

A. His music is not of the kind that can top charts instantaneously like Kala Chashma or Kar Gayi Chull. It takes time to grow and audience tend to like his music more when they watch the film.

Q. Akshay said in a recent interview that Jolly LLB 2 will get wrapped up by September end! So if he wins the clash against Mohenjo Daro, will it give him the confidence of releasing Jolly LLB 2 this year and clash it with a big film?

A. Jolly LLB 2 already has a release date, February 10 2017.

Q. When will advance booking of Mohenjo Daro start?

A. Select few centres have already started advance booking of both films. Multiplex chains should start bookings from Wednesday. A few exhibitors we spoke to are giving equal shows to both films.

Q. What will be Hrithik Roshan’s box office standing if Mohenjo Daro flops? Will he still be considered a bankable star?

A. Established stars are largely unaffected by one or two failures. Perception changes, fan-following doesn’t. How much did Brothers affect Akshay Kumar’s career? A under-performer like Talaash or Jai Ho made no difference to Aamir or Salman.

Q. Which movie do you think has got it right as far as the era / period it is trying to depict?

A. We’ll only know after the release of the two films. Unfair to judge either just by watching 3minute long trailers.

Q. Will sultan be out of theatres from coming Friday on 12 August?

A. No, Sultan has sustained very well even in Week 5, so the film will still be running on very few shows. It will finish with lifetime business of around 302 crore. Do note that our LBO prediction for the film was 305 crore, the difference will be less than 1%.

With that, we end the QnA session for today. Shivaay trailer will be out in an hour and a half from now. Stay tuned for that.