‘MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’ is the big release of the week and arguably one of the Top 3 most-anticipated films of 2016 so far. The response to the advance booking, which opened about 5 days ago, has been excellent. In terms of the number of ticket sold, it’s probably the second best advance booking of the year – below Salman Khan’s Sultan and comparable to Shah Rukh Khan’s FAN.
In terms of release size too, ’MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’ is getting a wide release which is comparable to some of the biggest films of the year.
It’s probably for the first time in the history of Indian Cinema that a cricketer will be lending his star-power to the opening of a film. It’s something that has never happened before and even if it has (Azhar biopic for example) – the pre-release buzz hasn’t really come close to what a big superstar can generate.
Factors that will help ’MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’:
- The man himself, everyone knows him and wants to know his ‘untold’ story. More importantly, Dhoni is probably the most loved cricketer in India after Sachin Tendulkar and has inspired an entire generation of Indians – who have grown up watching him lead India to not one, but two World Cup victories. The six of the last ball of the World Cup final too is one of those unforgettable nostalgic moments. The makers have been smart enough to use it in the promos.
- It also helps that the film revolves around cricket – by far the most popular sport in India.
- Neeraj Pandey, the director of the film, has a good track record. Almost every promo of ’MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’, including the all-important trailer, have received a good response.
- ‘MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’ has other advantages too – the rural feel to the film (something that’s working today) and the rags to riches story. The industry, in the last few years, barring few films, has been catering mainly to the urban 10-15 city multiplex audience. This film is going to be different as ’MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’ will appeal to every section of the audience.
For the first time, a cricketer's star power will be driving the film on Day 1. The credit for MS Dhoni's opening will go to the man himself
— Indicine.com (@indicine) September 29, 2016
Factors against ’MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’
- It’s a case of a small rising star, in a massive film. Fortunately, the burden of the opening is not really on him, because Dhoni will bring in the audience, before Neeraj Pandey (read – content) takes over.
- The costs are high and recovery – if the word-of-mouth is not good – is not going to be easy. Basically, the film has to open at 15 crore plus and then grow over the weekend – for it to have any chance of recovering costs. A lifetime domestic business of 100-110 crore plus is what the film needs just to break even.
- The runtime at 3 hours plus is on the higher side, which will mean fewer shows at multiplexes.
IndicineFBO: It’s another difficult prediction to make, because the factors involved here are not comparable to any film that has released before. But considering the pre-release buzz, advance booking and the immense popularity of Dhoni – we are going with a very bold prediction.
We expect ’MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’ to collect Rs 20.1 crore on its opening day at the box office. The only concern here is the word-of-mouth. Because to achieve these sort of numbers, the film has pick up evening onwards at multiplexes and even with good advance booking, the spot-booking will be the key. We expect Neeraj Pandey to deliver.
That’s our final prediction for Day 1 – Rs 20.1 crore for ’MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’.
| Movie | Prediction | Official | |
| Wazir | 4.4 | 5.61 | + 27%, In accurate |
| Airlift | 10.9 | 12.35 | + 13%, Accurate |
| Kya Kool Hai Hum 3 | 9.3 | 8.15 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Mastizaade | 6.1 | 5.59 | - 8%, Accurate |
| Saala Khadoos | 2.2 | 2.19 | 0%, Accurate |
| Ghayal Once Again | 6.4 | 7.2 | + 12%, Accurate |
| Sanam Re | 5.5 | 5.04 | - 8%, Accurate |
| Fitoor | 5.2 | 3.61 | - 30%, Inaccurate |
| Neerja | 4.3 | 4.7 | + 8%, Accurate |
| Jai Gangajaal | 5.2 | 5.5 | + 6%, Accurate |
| Kapoor & Sons | 5.8 | 6.85 | + 18%, Inaccurate |
| Rocky Handsome | 6.3 | 5.39 | - 14%, Accurate |
| Ki and Ka | 6.3 | 7.27 | + 16%, Inaccurate |
| Fan | 21.9 | 19.2 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Baaghi | 9.4 | 11.94 | + 27%, Inaccurate |
| Azhar | 7.5 | 6.3 | - 16%, Inaccurate |
| Sarbjit | 4.2 | 3.69 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Housefull 3 | 17.4 | 15.21 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Udta Punjab | 8.9 | 10.05 | - 13%, Accurate |
| Sultan | 38.5 | 36.54 | - 5%, Accurate |
| Great Grand Masti | 5.8 | 2.5 | - 56%, Inaccurate |
| Dishoom | 9.8 | 11.02 | +12%, Accurate |
| Mohenjo Daro | 10.7 | 8.87 | - 17%, Inaccurate |
| Rustom | 12.6 | 14.11 | +12%, Accurate |
| Happy Bhaag Jayegi | 2.1 | 2.32 | +10%, Accurate |
| A Flying Jatt | 8.5 | 7.11 | - 16%, Inaccurate |
| Baar Baar Dekho | 9.1 | 6.81 | - 25%, Inaccurate |
| Freaky Ali | 2.4 | 2.5 | +4%, Accurate |
| Pink | 4.5 | 4.32 | -4%, Accurate |
| Raaz Reboot | 5.2 | 6.31 | + 21%, Inaccurate |
| MS Dhoni | 20.1 | 21.6 | +7%, Accurate |
| Mirzya | 4.0 | 2.2 | - 45%, Inaccurate |
| Shivaay | 10.7 | 10.24 | -4%, Accurate |
| ADHM | 12.4 | 13.3 | +7%, Accurate |
| Force 2 | 5.8 | 6.05 | +4%, Accurate |
| Dear Zindagi | 9.7 | 8.75 | -10%, Accurate |
| Kahaani 2 | 4.5 | 4.25 | -5%, Accurate |
| Befikre | 10.5 | 10.36 | -1%, Accurate |
| Dangal | 28.6 | 29.78 | +4%, Accurate |
Dhoni rocks ??
High budget movie difficult to recover investment .due to ms presence it will
max 12 cr
Good Analysis.
I think the WOM will be mixed to positive.
Mmy prediction – 17.5 crs
Though I want it to collect much more than that .
I m going tomorrow morning show to witness India’s greatest captain journey.
Lol now srk fan can do suicide
Good , all the best to Dhoni:) .. @indicine, plzzz reply <3 . can Befikre enter the "100 cr club" ? Prediction of Befikre ?? Plz
great…
it would be most bautiful news if it happens..
i booked my tkts on monday..
waited long for it..
dhoni is pride of india
Small rising star?? wat a shameful way to describe Sushanth who has delivered 2 acclaimed hits in his 3 film old career and before that starred in TRP topper Pavitra Rishta. like dhoni sushanth is also a middle class boy who had to make lot of sacrifices compromises & take risks to reach where he has reached today
So pls give Sushanth some credit and respect
Adhm will open in single digits. Nowadays, cinegoers have became matured enough to know the hollow and boring storyline of Adhm being covered up by songs.
Shivaay was never meant to be a musical film. Still it has managed to put up a fight in music department.
Adhm trailer was pathetic to say the least. And the songs too give a feel that they r ripped off from previous rom-com trash of Kjo.
I will go with Shivaay. Big screen experience. Adhm is a laptop material.
Dhoni Dhoni
love u Dhoni
20 crores! IMO….this is too much. 18cr is achievable in best case..
Adhm will open in single digits. Nowadays, cinegoers have became matured enough to know the hollow and boring storyline of Adhm being covered up by songs.
Shivaay was never meant to be a musical film. Still it has managed to put up a fight in music department.
Adhm trailer was pathetic to say the least. And the songs too give a feel that they r ripped off from previous rom-com trash of Kjo.
I will go with Shivaay. Big screen experience. Adhm is a laptop material.
And why is Kjo deleting negative reviews of Adhm trailer from Youtube?? He is also making the Aib people to remove negative posts abt adhm. Such an insecure fellow.
My support to Shivaay now. Solid looking film with no gimmicks and insecurity!!!
17-19cr min
FIRST DAY WILL BE 22 CR. JUST BCOZ OF NEERAJ PANDEY.
This is the power of M.S. Dhoni……
sure shot 20cr+
excellent analysis and prediction from @indicine
u r best
My prediction is 19.5 crores .
Two big brands dhoni n neeraj pandey can make it possible but d content is important here.with neeraj as director one can be assured.
So it is going to break Akshay kumar’s Highest opener SIB ??? i.e. > 17 crores.
I think it will collect 20.5 crores if the WOM will be very positive but 19 crores if WOM will be mixed to positive
And i’m very much aure that WOM will not be negative.
It get outstanding reviw in america
20 crore is achiveable Because of the man DHONI only in my city the advance booking is terrific all the morning shows are moving towards housefull SIGN multiplex in my city are playing 12 to 13 shows.My exams are going to over tomorrow going with friends to watch this untold story.
?MS & Neeraj… loveUmahi?
sushant is the apt casting for the lead role……….remember dhoni was a no one when he started and then went to become the biggest cricketer of his times…….
Sushant, will surely deliver a knock out performance, so will neeraj pandey…..
20 cr is on! Dont be surprised to see a 60 cr plus plus weekend!!!
Even Bhaag Milkha Bhaag was a 3 hour+ movie and it did 106 crores at box office. Dhoni is a much bigger brand and running time does’nt matters if WOM is good. I’m saying it again, if it gets excellent WOM then 180 crores is on cards.
150 cr dhoni
Sushant Singh rajput can be the next Aamir Khan of bollywood ,he has a good script sense and give his all to the character
Maximum people will watch it for dhoni or neeraj pandey
But i will watch it for Sushant’s hardwork and dedication ,he had already won my respect in the trailer and promos ,he is exactly looking like MSD .
It will be great if Sushant gets the Filmfare for MSD : The Untold Story
It has to do 60-65 crores from domestic and overseas box office and not 100-110 cr.
Recovery – satellite is 45 cr (some reports saying 55 cr), brand association is 15 cr, music and digital is 10 cr which comes to 70 cr. And budget is 100 cr. So only 30 cr to be recovered. Indicine you are wrong in saying that it needs to do 100-110 cr.
@Arjun Youngistaan fan, indicine is’nt insulting Sushant. He is a very good actor and can become a future superstar but he still is’nt a crowd puller.
@indicine please don’t give credit of WOM to only neeraj pandey .Yes ,he is a great director but the amount of Hardwork Sushant has done for this movie is damn to high .
Don’t take away credit from him ,he will rock in the movie
People will go inside the theatre as MSD fan but will come out as a Sushant Fan too ,Its his perfection which will add to the WOM alongwith Neeraj’s direction.
If word of mouth will not full positive then it cannot collect 100 + cr.and this movie is too lengthy for these days.
My opening prediction will be around 11-15 cr.Lets see what happens
Agrees with u indicine bt dis thumb up n down doesn’t luks gud..It was better bfr.