The Ramzan period has begun, which also means the long wait for Salman Khan begins in theatres. There’s the usual lull before the storm, but Ramzan releases in the last few years have performed very well at the box office.
There was ‘Bhaag Milkha Bhaag’ in 2013, ‘Humpty Sharma Ki Dulhania’ in 2014, ‘ABCD 2’ in 2015 and ‘Udta Punjab’ last year – all Ramzan / Pre-Eid releases that did well at the box office (Udta Punjab was an average grosser).
But the common factor for all those films was, they were carrying pre-release interest. ‘Raabta’ isn’t because neither the trailer nor the song promos have worked. In fact, the only two factors in favour of the film seems to be the fact that it’s Sushant’s first film after ‘MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’ and the alleged off-screen relationship of the lead pair. Barring that, the reincarnation angle doesn’t seem to have excited the multiplex audience and the general response to the trailer was mixed to negative. We expect the opening of the film to be around the 6 – 6.5 crore range.
‘Behen Hogi Teri’ is likely to open under the 1 crore mark.
The other releases in between are ‘Bank Chor’, ‘Guest In London’ and a few others. The success of these films will depend on word-of-mouth.
Tubelight: It’s probably the first Salman Khan film in a very long time that hasn’t generated a lot of hype. The theatrical trailer has generally received a better response than the teaser, but it still isn’t at ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan’ or ‘Sultan’ levels. We did a survey in theatres last weekend, the results were good. 65% of people said they’d watch the film in theatres, which is high compared to most other films, but it compares poorly to 84% people saying they’d watch Sultan. (Note: Sample size of Tubelight was higher at 430 people across various cities, against approx 200 people for Sultan. We did not do any survey before the release of Bajrangi Bhaijaan).
The reasons are obvious, the film lacks action and those typical commercial elements that we’ve come to expect out of Salman’s festive releases. It’s different, a little off-beat, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It’s more in the ‘Dangal’ space – a film that also lacked a popular heroine. The music of ‘Tubelight’ has received a fairly good response. The ‘Radio’ song is a hit. With around 2 weeks to go for the theatrical release of ‘Tubelight’, we expect the film to collect around 28 crore on its opening day (Pre Eid, non-holiday).
The trailer of ‘Munna Michael’ has received a positive response, especially from the trade. Tiger’s presence will help at mass centres, while Nawazuddin Siddiqui could attract the multiplex audience. ‘Jagga Jasoos’ should get a decent initial due to Ranbir Kapoor and Katrina Kaif.
Check out the updated FBO table below:
|Lucknow Central||1.8||-||1||15 Sep|
|Haseena Parkar||1.0||-||1||22 Sep|
|Judwaa 2||15.5||-||8||28 Sep|
|Ok Jaanu||5.6||4.08||2||13 Jan|
|Jolly LLB 2||14.25||13.2||6||10 Feb|
|Commando 2||4.0||4.25||2||3 Feb|
|Begum Jaan||3.1||3.94||3||14 Apr|
|Baahubali 2||33||41||10||28 Apr|
|Sarkar 3||3.0||2.0||2||12 May|
|Meri Pyaari Bindu||2.7||1.75||2||12 May|
|Half Girlfriend||9.2||10.27||6||19 May|
|Guest In London||1.7||1.5||2||7 Jul|
|Jagga Jasoos||8.8||8.57||4||14 Jul|
|Munna Michael||8.2||6.65||3||21 Jul|
|Jab Harry Met Sejal||17.0||15.25||6||4 Aug|
|Toilet: EPK||13.0||13.1||6||11 Aug|
|Bareilly Ki Barfi||2.1||2.4||2||18 Aug|
|Babumoshai Bandookbaaz||2.0||2.05||1||25 Aug|
|A Gentleman||5.7*||4.04*||2||25 Aug|
|Shubh Mangal Saavdhan||2.2||-||2||1 Sep|