IndicineFBO: Raabta, Tubelight, Munna Michael

The Ramzan period has begun, which also means the long wait for Salman Khan begins in theatres. There’s the usual lull before the storm, but Ramzan releases in the last few years have performed very well at the box office.

There was ‘Bhaag Milkha Bhaag’ in 2013, ‘Humpty Sharma Ki Dulhania’ in 2014, ‘ABCD 2’ in 2015 and ‘Udta Punjab’ last year – all Ramzan / Pre-Eid releases that did well at the box office (Udta Punjab was an average grosser).

But the common factor for all those films was, they were carrying pre-release interest. ‘Raabta’ isn’t because neither the trailer nor the song promos have worked. In fact, the only two factors in favour of the film seems to be the fact that it’s Sushant’s first film after ‘MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’ and the alleged off-screen relationship of the lead pair. Barring that, the reincarnation angle doesn’t seem to have excited the multiplex audience and the general response to the trailer was mixed to negative. We expect the opening of the film to be around the 6 – 6.5 crore range.

‘Behen Hogi Teri’ is likely to open under the 1 crore mark.

The other releases in between are ‘Bank Chor’, ‘Guest In London’ and a few others. The success of these films will depend on word-of-mouth.

Tubelight: It’s probably the first Salman Khan film in a very long time that hasn’t generated a lot of hype. The theatrical trailer has generally received a better response than the teaser, but it still isn’t at ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan’ or ‘Sultan’ levels. We did a survey in theatres last weekend, the results were good. 65% of people said they’d watch the film in theatres, which is high compared to most other films, but it compares poorly to 84% people saying they’d watch Sultan. (Note: Sample size of Tubelight was higher at 430 people across various cities, against approx 200 people for Sultan. We did not do any survey before the release of Bajrangi Bhaijaan).

The reasons are obvious, the film lacks action and those typical commercial elements that we’ve come to expect out of Salman’s festive releases. It’s different, a little off-beat, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It’s more in the ‘Dangal’ space – a film that also lacked a popular heroine. The music of ‘Tubelight’ has received a fairly good response. The ‘Radio’ song is a hit. With around 2 weeks to go for the theatrical release of ‘Tubelight’, we expect the film to collect around 28 crore on its opening day (Pre Eid, non-holiday).

The trailer of ‘Munna Michael’ has received a positive response, especially from the trade. Tiger’s presence will help at mass centres, while Nawazuddin Siddiqui could attract the multiplex audience. ‘Jagga Jasoos’ should get a decent initial due to Ranbir Kapoor and Katrina Kaif.

Check out the updated FBO table below:

MovieDay 1OfficialBuzzDate
Simran2.6-115 Sep
Lucknow Central1.8-115 Sep
Bhoomi3.5-222 Sep
Haseena Parkar1.0-122 Sep
Judwaa 215.5-828 Sep
Ok Jaanu5.64.08213 Jan
Kaabil*11.510.43525 Jan
Raees*21.520.42925 Jan
Jolly LLB 214.2513.2610 Feb
Rangoon6.35.0224 Feb
Commando 24.04.2523 Feb
Badrinath Ki
Dulhania
11.612.25710 Mar
Phillauri4.04.02224 Mar
Begum Jaan3.13.94314 Apr
Noor2.21.54121 Apr
Baahubali 233411028 Apr
Sarkar 33.02.0212 May
Meri Pyaari Bindu2.71.75212 May
Half Girlfriend9.210.27619 May
Raabta6.55.6149 Jun
Tubelight2721.15823 Jun
Mom3.12.937 Jul
Guest In London1.71.527 Jul
Jagga Jasoos8.88.57414 Jul
Munna Michael8.26.65321 Jul
Mubarakan7.25.25328 Jul
Jab Harry Met Sejal17.015.2564 Aug
Toilet: EPK13.013.1611 Aug
Bareilly Ki Barfi2.12.4218 Aug
Babumoshai Bandookbaaz2.02.05125 Aug
A Gentleman5.7*4.04*225 Aug
Baadshaho10.4-31 Sep
Shubh Mangal Saavdhan2.2-21 Sep
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68 Comments

  • Tubelight will be above 30cr
    And the media and trade disgust me..
    When salman was doing all out action and massy movies , you people were like Salman is doing same thing.
    Now when he is doing different things you people still have problem.. let the man live..
    And Tubelight looks like a brilliant movie which will surely connect with everyone and it can do above 330cr plus !!

  • Indicine raees had much higher buzz but we all know the result half girlfriend defeated by hindi medium, so its A content which will be liked and so far tubelight it looks like first niche movie of salman after many years

  • Sohail Khan carries his ‘flop genes’ to all his movies, I still don’t understand why he is Tubelight. The only movie am eager to watch amongst these is BANK CHOR.

  • If Tubelight will take less opening than Dangal, then it will be clear that AAMIR is a greater Crowd puller. As the pre-Eid period can be compensated with Demonatisation in case of Dangal..
    Lets see what happens Dangal opening was 29 Cr.
    Amd aamir is gonna take record breaking opening with TOH as its a out n out Commercial Movie and releasing on the biggest Day of the Year, Post Diwali..
    TZH too will take a massive opening these Three movies will clear Everything i.e. TUBELIGHT, TZH AND TOH that who is the bigger crowd puller among these two.

  • 28CR SOLO RELEASE.. SCREENS WILL BE AROUND 4500 …
    ZOR DAR CHAMAT ON SALMAN FANS..

    MEGASTAR IS NOT EVEN TOUCHING 30CRS ON OPENING..

    NOW PLZ DONT SAY ITS NORMAL RELEASE AND ALL.. COZ UR BHAI FAN SAYS SALMAN THE NAME IS ENOUGH TO BRING AUDIENCE SO SUCH FACTORS SHOULD AFFECT YOUR BHAIS OPENING ISN’T IT??😅😅😂😂

  • Like Tubelite…dangal also is said to be a movie which had less buzz compard to pk and D3…liftime we all know the story

  • Raabta is a sure shot flop.
    And what is the budget of JJ. It should be above 90-95 cr + as production values seems good and it is a delayed since 3 years so budget will definitely go up ? It also looks outdated and flop.
    Munna Micheal won’t take 12 cr opening trailer was average and did not liked by most of the people, and songs also not looks good it will be around 10 cr.

  • @Indicine HRITHIK’S next movie Anand Kumar Biopic is confirmed now as Anand Kumar himself said Hrithik is going to do that..
    So make an article about that.

  • Tubelight is not creating the buzz..
    It looks dull from the trailer.
    Salman can take it to some extend..but the movie should have something in it.
    BB was opposite lots of buzz was there..its is one of the best.
    Tubelight not intersted

  • agree with you but Tubelight will sure shot score 30cr on day one
    and Tubelight will get minimum 70% to 75% opening
    #write on the wall

  • Tubelite trailer gives the same feel of bajrangi classic bhaijaan….the reasn for the mixed response may b becoz of the presence of 2 flop khans(sohail and shahcook)

  • Personally Tubelight is not looking interesting the way it should have been . The trailer was better than teaser but something is missing . Tubelight reminds me of Bajrangi Bhaijaan to some extent . I was expecting something different from Kabir and Salman . There is nothing special in the Radio song . If Tubelight opens 28 CR+ than it will be massive . Raabta is looking a sureshot flop .

  • I think 28cr is huge number considering that it is not only release in Non-Holiday but it is also Pre-EID period…….Remember Dangal collects 29cr on non holiday in Christmas Period (when winter holiday was started in school and colleges), so 28cr is huge and it is consider as Bumper Opening……And if it cross 30cr mark then I think it should be consider as Monstrous Collection……

    Let See…

  • Tube light collection will be grow day by day till 20 days. If average -16 cr per day then first 20 days in India = 320 cr.
    125 cr from overseas
    Worldwide 700 cr first 20 days

  • Indicine if you increase the number of people then its obvious that the percentage will decrease a little bit…..But still the difference between Tubelight and Sultan percent is not huge, just 19% and number of people you ask is more than double compare to Sultan……..

    Also considering that Tubelight is an Off-Beat movie with no popular Actress, No Action, No commercial element (compare to Sultan) 65% is huge……

    Yes I agree that Tubelight is not creating that huge buzz which other Salman’s movie create and the reason is obvious which you also know….But still considering all the facts of Off-Beat movie, I think this is the Huge Buzz……

  • @indicine..tubelight will get a bigger opening once the advance booking… Its a pan india movie… Family movie.. How many such kind of movies u get in a year! Family audience waits for such kind of movies… And salman is a festival in itself!!

  • Tubelight will open big. In EID just keep Bhai’s poster in theatres people will come!!

    Anyways Off-Topic

    How HRITIK is a bigger star than Akki

    Often we hear questions like who is bigger star between Hritik and Akki. I will show you now.
    Few notes:
    1. HOLIDAY RELEASES
    Hritik has only two festive releases-Mission Kashmir and Krishh-3. He made his debut 9 years after Akki. Akki on other hands has most no. of holiday releases-Suhaag, Garam Masala, Jaaneman, Action Replay, Saput,Blue, Aitraaz were all Deewali releases whereas TMK, Ab Tumhare Hawale Watan Sathi ho, Hum Hai Bemishaal were Christmas releases.

    2.2015 clash
    The clash between Rustom And Mohenjo Daro cant decide who the bigger is. Buddha mar gaya won Marigold in clash. Anthony Kaun Hai opened 3 times more than Shaadi karke phas gaya yaar. So are Rakhi Sawant and Arshad Warshi bigger stars than Salman?? Akki has lost clashes against Ajay Devgn and Saif Ali Khan. Are Ajay and Saif bigger than Akki?

    Lets have a brief comparison
    *Highest grosser of the year
    Hritik-3 domestically, 4 worldwide(including K3G)
    Akki-0 domestically, 0 worldwide

    *No. Of Blockbusters
    Hritik-5(KNPH, K3G, Dhoom-2, Krissh, Krissh-3)
    Akki-2(1 was in 1994, 6 yrs before Hritik’s debut)

    *All time Highest grosser
    Hritik-1 domestically(Dhoom-2) and worldwide
    Akki-0

    *Record openers
    Hritik-5(Mission Kashmir, K3G, Dhoom2, Krissh and Agneepath)-4 solo
    Akki-2

    *2cr+ footfalls
    Hritik-4(KNPH, Dhoom-2, K3G, Krishh-3)
    Akki-1

    *3cr+ffs
    Hritik-2(KNPH, K3G)
    Akki-0

    *Highest opening in national Holiday
    Hritik-20cr +
    Akki-17cr(Singhh is Bling)

    So Hritik is always a bigger star than Akki.

  • Mark My word.. Tubelight will be a flop movie.. Salman has to retire now.. Bollywood have handsome and good looking actors now.. I am from afghanistan.. There is One thing common in Afghanistan Politics and Indian Cinema.. Our Old Dogs Leaders dont leave the government to Youth and Salman Old Dog is not leaving Bollywood to other talented Young actors..

  • Tiger’s 1st day collection is much bigger than Ranbir’s movie (which also have Big Actress)……which means that even Tiger is bigger than Ranbir in term of Star Power….

    And few Stupid’s here make Ranbir their Filmy BAAP and were Dreaming that Ranbir will clash with Salman……LOL

  • I am happy if Tubelight collects between 28-30cr because its an off-beat movie and also it is the most dull day (in term of Box Office) of the year to release (Non-Holiday and Pre_EID)…..Now just imagine with an Off-Beat movie if Salman can give 30cr opening then what will happen when TZH will release……Well I seriously have no words for that……I can only imagine about it, which is HUMONGOUS…….

  • What a shame Salman Khan! Only 28 crore opening with so called “megastar who is bigger than his film” , star director and a hit Radio song.
    Dangal opened almost 30 crore during demonitisation, unknown director, old fat hero, no supporting cast, 5 debut actors.
    LMAO, AAMIR IS THE BIGGEST MEGASTAR OF INDIA, opening or lifetime!

  • 8.5 crore opening for Jagga Jasoos? Is that really a good initial? I mean, Tamasha opened at 10 crores and underperformed, and JJ is way more expensive.

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