IndicineFBO: Raabta, Tubelight, Munna Michael

The Ramzan period has begun, which also means the long wait for Salman Khan begins in theatres. There’s the usual lull before the storm, but Ramzan releases in the last few years have performed very well at the box office.

There was ‘Bhaag Milkha Bhaag’ in 2013, ‘Humpty Sharma Ki Dulhania’ in 2014, ‘ABCD 2’ in 2015 and ‘Udta Punjab’ last year – all Ramzan / Pre-Eid releases that did well at the box office (Udta Punjab was an average grosser).

But the common factor for all those films was, they were carrying pre-release interest. ‘Raabta’ isn’t because neither the trailer nor the song promos have worked. In fact, the only two factors in favour of the film seems to be the fact that it’s Sushant’s first film after ‘MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’ and the alleged off-screen relationship of the lead pair. Barring that, the reincarnation angle doesn’t seem to have excited the multiplex audience and the general response to the trailer was mixed to negative. We expect the opening of the film to be around the 6 – 6.5 crore range.

‘Behen Hogi Teri’ is likely to open under the 1 crore mark.

The other releases in between are ‘Bank Chor’, ‘Guest In London’ and a few others. The success of these films will depend on word-of-mouth.

Tubelight: It’s probably the first Salman Khan film in a very long time that hasn’t generated a lot of hype. The theatrical trailer has generally received a better response than the teaser, but it still isn’t at ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan’ or ‘Sultan’ levels. We did a survey in theatres last weekend, the results were good. 65% of people said they’d watch the film in theatres, which is high compared to most other films, but it compares poorly to 84% people saying they’d watch Sultan. (Note: Sample size of Tubelight was higher at 430 people across various cities, against approx 200 people for Sultan. We did not do any survey before the release of Bajrangi Bhaijaan).

The reasons are obvious, the film lacks action and those typical commercial elements that we’ve come to expect out of Salman’s festive releases. It’s different, a little off-beat, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It’s more in the ‘Dangal’ space – a film that also lacked a popular heroine. The music of ‘Tubelight’ has received a fairly good response. The ‘Radio’ song is a hit. With around 2 weeks to go for the theatrical release of ‘Tubelight’, we expect the film to collect around 28 crore on its opening day (Pre Eid, non-holiday).

The trailer of ‘Munna Michael’ has received a positive response, especially from the trade. Tiger’s presence will help at mass centres, while Nawazuddin Siddiqui could attract the multiplex audience. ‘Jagga Jasoos’ should get a decent initial due to Ranbir Kapoor and Katrina Kaif.

Check out the updated FBO table below:

MovieDay 1OfficialBuzzDate
Simran2.6-115 Sep
Lucknow Central1.8-115 Sep
Bhoomi3.5-222 Sep
Haseena Parkar1.0-122 Sep
Judwaa 215.5-828 Sep
Ok Jaanu5.64.08213 Jan
Kaabil*11.510.43525 Jan
Raees*21.520.42925 Jan
Jolly LLB 214.2513.2610 Feb
Rangoon6.35.0224 Feb
Commando 24.04.2523 Feb
Badrinath Ki
11.612.25710 Mar
Phillauri4.04.02224 Mar
Begum Jaan3.13.94314 Apr
Noor2.21.54121 Apr
Baahubali 233411028 Apr
Sarkar 33.02.0212 May
Meri Pyaari Bindu2.71.75212 May
Half Girlfriend9.210.27619 May
Raabta6.55.6149 Jun
Tubelight2721.15823 Jun
Mom3.12.937 Jul
Guest In London1.71.527 Jul
Jagga Jasoos8.88.57414 Jul
Munna Michael8.26.65321 Jul
Mubarakan7.25.25328 Jul
Jab Harry Met Sejal17.015.2564 Aug
Toilet: EPK13.013.1611 Aug
Bareilly Ki Barfi2.12.4218 Aug
Babumoshai Bandookbaaz2.02.05125 Aug
A Gentleman5.7*4.04*225 Aug
Baadshaho10.4-31 Sep
Shubh Mangal Saavdhan2.2-21 Sep


  • comparing with sultan won’t work. sultan was a partial holiday release and opened 36 crore plus. this is a working day release, so 36 crore was never possible. you should have compared it with dangal which had a similar kind of buzz and also a working day release.

    dangal was a proper working day release and opened around 29 crore net. so idealy tubelight should have targetted 30-32 crore net opening. but tubelight will have ramzan effect also and kick , bajrangi bhaijaan were also affected by this. so i thing 28 crore opening is huge. anything between 25-30 crore net opening will be good after the poor response to the trailer and songs.

    but i somehow think this film is going to dissapoint . i think it’s a bombay velvet of salman hhan. so according to me this film will open around 15 crore net and have a lifetime of 125 crore net.
    this eid we will get to know how much bombay velvet would have earned with salman.

  • @TIGER ha ha ha. Good joke. How did dangal enjoy holidays? It had both christmas and New Year holiday fell on Sunday. Not even partial holiday advantage on opening day. So there was no advantage. On the other hand sultan had advantage of 2 partial holidays (including opening day), commercial mass speak, top actress, top banner, and many other factors in favor. So dangal was winner.

  • @TIGER i know it was between dangal and tubelight. But even in that case both dangal and tubelight have same case as both release on lack of holiday. My only point was to correct you on holiday advantages and just to remind you that dangal didn’t enjoy any extra holiday advantage. That’s all.

  • For those who think RK VS Salman clash was averted because RK has less power. Is it not enough Bahubali has made a big hole from which Bollywood need to get up. Now you want money to be divided. Bollywood is averting clashes so each movie can make money. Aabki baar yeh sawaal nahi who is big star. The question is who will break Bahu bali’s record.

    On note, Jagga Jasoos looks well made and interesting. It might surprise you. Stop pulling down movies. Kulhadi pain pair maar maar ke yeh haal hua hai Bollywood ka. Aab kya puri industry dubaoge.

Leave a Comment