IndicineFBO: Raabta, Tubelight, Munna Michael

The Ramzan period has begun, which also means the long wait for Salman Khan begins in theatres. There’s the usual lull before the storm, but Ramzan releases in the last few years have performed very well at the box office.

There was ‘Bhaag Milkha Bhaag’ in 2013, ‘Humpty Sharma Ki Dulhania’ in 2014, ‘ABCD 2’ in 2015 and ‘Udta Punjab’ last year – all Ramzan / Pre-Eid releases that did well at the box office (Udta Punjab was an average grosser).

But the common factor for all those films was, they were carrying pre-release interest. ‘Raabta’ isn’t because neither the trailer nor the song promos have worked. In fact, the only two factors in favour of the film seems to be the fact that it’s Sushant’s first film after ‘MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’ and the alleged off-screen relationship of the lead pair. Barring that, the reincarnation angle doesn’t seem to have excited the multiplex audience and the general response to the trailer was mixed to negative. We expect the opening of the film to be around the 6 – 6.5 crore range.

‘Behen Hogi Teri’ is likely to open under the 1 crore mark.

The other releases in between are ‘Bank Chor’, ‘Guest In London’ and a few others. The success of these films will depend on word-of-mouth.

Tubelight: It’s probably the first Salman Khan film in a very long time that hasn’t generated a lot of hype. The theatrical trailer has generally received a better response than the teaser, but it still isn’t at ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan’ or ‘Sultan’ levels. We did a survey in theatres last weekend, the results were good. 65% of people said they’d watch the film in theatres, which is high compared to most other films, but it compares poorly to 84% people saying they’d watch Sultan. (Note: Sample size of Tubelight was higher at 430 people across various cities, against approx 200 people for Sultan. We did not do any survey before the release of Bajrangi Bhaijaan).

The reasons are obvious, the film lacks action and those typical commercial elements that we’ve come to expect out of Salman’s festive releases. It’s different, a little off-beat, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It’s more in the ‘Dangal’ space – a film that also lacked a popular heroine. The music of ‘Tubelight’ has received a fairly good response. The ‘Radio’ song is a hit. With around 2 weeks to go for the theatrical release of ‘Tubelight’, we expect the film to collect around 28 crore on its opening day (Pre Eid, non-holiday).

The trailer of ‘Munna Michael’ has received a positive response, especially from the trade. Tiger’s presence will help at mass centres, while Nawazuddin Siddiqui could attract the multiplex audience. ‘Jagga Jasoos’ should get a decent initial due to Ranbir Kapoor and Katrina Kaif.

Check out the updated FBO table below:

MovieDay 1OfficialBuzzDate
Simran2.6-115 Sep
Lucknow Central1.8-115 Sep
Bhoomi3.5-222 Sep
Haseena Parkar1.0-122 Sep
Judwaa 215.5-828 Sep
Ok Jaanu5.64.08213 Jan
Kaabil*11.510.43525 Jan
Raees*21.520.42925 Jan
Jolly LLB 214.2513.2610 Feb
Rangoon6.35.0224 Feb
Commando 24.04.2523 Feb
Badrinath Ki
11.612.25710 Mar
Phillauri4.04.02224 Mar
Begum Jaan3.13.94314 Apr
Noor2.21.54121 Apr
Baahubali 233411028 Apr
Sarkar 33.02.0212 May
Meri Pyaari Bindu2.71.75212 May
Half Girlfriend9.210.27619 May
Raabta6.55.6149 Jun
Tubelight2721.15823 Jun
Mom3.12.937 Jul
Guest In London1.71.527 Jul
Jagga Jasoos8.88.57414 Jul
Munna Michael8.26.65321 Jul
Mubarakan7.25.25328 Jul
Jab Harry Met Sejal17.015.2564 Aug
Toilet: EPK13.013.1611 Aug
Bareilly Ki Barfi2.12.4218 Aug
Babumoshai Bandookbaaz2.02.05125 Aug
A Gentleman5.7*4.04*225 Aug
Baadshaho10.4-31 Sep
Shubh Mangal Saavdhan2.2-21 Sep


  • Only 28 crore opening day prediction of Tubelight ! Raees, a delayed film clashed with another big film managed to collect 20.5 crore on working day.

  • Only King Khan & eid will save craplight somehow. Bhai is trying really hard to impress audience with his fake unbearable emotional torturous acting but is failing miserably.

  • The release day of #Tubelight is on 23 June. It is non-holiday Ramadan release.

    So as compared to Dangal release day, Tubelight has a less favorable release day due to pre-Eid as all Muslims and possibly many non-Muslims too will be busy buying things.

    So, 28 Crs opening is excellent although not bumper.

  • Yet, I will go with a prediction of 30+ Crores opening for Tubelight.

    @Salman Devotee, no Tubelight won’t have 40+Crores opening day. Don’t overestimate it. Yes, TZH will easily score over 40 Crores on the opening day.

  • With the 28-30 Crores opening, increased ticket price and Eid falling on Monday, if the content is accepted just like BB, 350 Crores is assured and 400 Crores is possible.

    Excited for Tubelight as my inner sense says it will be one of the nicest movies of all time.

  • Tubelight will open good.

    Day 1 – 30 cr
    Day 2 – 35 cr
    Day 3 – 38 cr
    Day 4 (Holiday) – 36 cr; (Partial holiday) – 25 cr
    Day 5 – 20 cr

    Week 1 – 185 to 195 cr
    Week 2 – 60 cr
    Lifetime — 270 to 280 cr
    Verdict – SuperHit [Domestic Distribution Rights sold at around 100 cr]

  • Tubelight opening will not be record breaking but it will give clear idea of TZH opening. If Tubelight does 28 cr opening then believe me TZH will break opening record of Bahubali.

  • I know Bhai fans are illiterate but the amount of illiteracy one of them shows makes me laugh

    Munna is a massy proper film which seems to have universal appeal while JJ is a kids targeted delayed film whose promos are dull and confusing

    How can we even compare?

  • Fellow Salman fans, please don’t exaggerate the opening. Tubelight will open 25cr and will finish at 320cr. Unfortunately that ia the truth.

  • Difference b/w Salman & SRK

    Fan – it wasn’t a typical masala film, but had some action to be called universal film but hencepeople were happy with opening of around 20 crs…

    and in case of Tubelight, it has nothing like Fan (Revenge Thriller), no action no thrills nothing but even 30 crs are looking less for people, This is call MegaStardom

  • Yeah it wont take tbunper opening but still i believe it will do more than 30cr on ist dat and then it will depend on content but salman will easily carryvitbto 200cr..

  • Oh GOD!! CHOMU LIKE NEW ERA SRK and others are dancing out of joy as if Tubelight has actually taken 28 Crores opening. Take a chill pill guys and let the film release first

  • Look at the Stupid comments of Haters, they are talking like Tubelight already released and it has collected 28cr……..Idiot this is just a prediction of Indicine, wait for 23rd June and then give your Stupid comment……

  • Tubelight buzz 9 and Raees 8 how do u work that out @indicine? Raees with a clash did 21 and tubelight you r predicting 28 that is crap!!! Sorry to say min should have been 40 atleast as u claim his a megastar!!! Bahubali 2 did in 1 fucking day 140crore!!!! and these pathetic articles u release are a waste of time!!!!
    Munna Michael u cant get any trash movie than that from the trailers!!! U said the same shit about flying jatt we know how that ended up!!!!

  • Tubelight first day 30crs…. Indicine mark my words…

    Its a pan india movie and Buzz is grater than Sultan and BB….

  • Buzz of tubelight low because of Bahubhali and dangal factor
    People still watching Bahubhali
    Tubelight on a buzz score 9 is a joke compared to Raees 8

  • not interested in munna. raabta will work b’cause sushant singh. waiting for our Sher tubelight. god knows when hr will sign movie

  • 28cr would be hugeeee considering non holiday+pre Eid release…. It’s like 35-36cr for a normal Friday release….!

  • @abhishek

    Abey pagla gaya hain kya? Dangal releases in the last week of December… There was hardly any demonytisation factor in those days. Winter holidays were also there for Dangal. While Tubelight is a complete non holiday release and also pre Eid disadvantage is there. Hence, if Tubelight manages to collect 27-28cr then thats real value would be 35-36cr…!

  • @new era srg
    @prashant abhishek

    Hahaha….Salman’s offbeat movie (Indicine said this in the article) Tubelight is going to collect 28cr in pre Eid. But srk’s offbeat Dear Dadaji failed to collect even 10cr on opening day… Now explain which one is bigger SHAME???

  • Since Eid in on Monday. Tubelight have a bright chance of grossing mor ethan 350crs.

    400 crs depends on how is shapes?

    Anyways 300 is guarantee which some big called phankas, nakaabil and toilet actors are dreaming.

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