Bajrangi Bhaijaan, Prem Ratan Dhan Payo and Tamasha Box Office Prediction

Last part of our box office predictions for the year 2015. You can read Part 1 and Part 2.

We dedicate Part 3 to the biggest releases of the year, which happen to release during the festive weeks of Eid, Diwali and Christmas. While there are reports that Shahrukh Khan wants Rohit Shetty to direct a film for Christmas, there hasn’t been an official just yet. SRK starts shooting for Raees next month.

As things stand today, Salman Khan has two festive releases – Bajrangi Bhaijaan during Eid (Mid-July) and Prem Ratan Dhan Payo during Diwali (2nd week of November). The Christmas releases are Bajirao Mastani and Tamasha, both set for a clash at the ticket window.

Note: Year-beginning Box office predictions are made assuming that films turn out to be fairly well-made with mixed to good word-of-mouth. If a film carries extreme negative reports like Besharam, then the collections could be way below our predictions. At the same time, if a film receives universal appreciation like PK, then even 300 crore wouldn’t be difficult for films like Bajrangi Bhaijaan or SRK-Rohit Shetty film.

Predictions below.

Bajrangi Bhaijaan (240 – 250 crore): After Wanted, Dabangg, Bodyguard, Ek Tha Tiger and Kick, the king of Eid has taken up the slot once again – this time with his Ek Tha Tiger director Kabir Khan, a film that also stars Kareena Kapoor Khan. Bajrangi Bhaijaan is expected to be a film about inter-religion love and we expect a neatly told love story with elements of action and drama. The film is easily the biggest biggie of the year and it will go on to earn a lot of money at the box office.

Prem Ratan Dhan Payo (210 – 220 crore): The title of the film seems very archaic and could keep the youth away from the theaters, but the core audience of Sooraj Barjatya films have always been in the families of small towns and big towns. Barjatya understands the milieu of the family audience better than any director in the country. Prem Ratan Dhan Payo stars Salman Khan and Sonam Kapoor and enjoys a Diwali release (which isn’t quite as great as the Eid or Christmas period for the box office). We are a little apprehensive about the connect it will have with the youth but it should still manage to cross the 200 crore mark.

Bajirao Mastani (with clash – 100 to 110 crores): Ram Leela was one of the biggest surprise hits of 2013, earning over 115 crores in India alone. Very few directors in India can tell a costume drama better than Sanjay Leela Bhansali. He has now chosen to tell the story of the feisty Maratha King Bajirao Mastani and his love story. He has cast his ‘Ram Leela’ lead pair Ranveer Singh and Deepika Padukone and added Priyanka Chopra to the main cast. But the big question is – will Bhansali be allowed a solo release during Christmas? Every big star wants to release his film during Christmas and even the trade / exhibitors wouldn’t be too pleased if a film like Bajirao Mastani gets a solo release. We believe, it would either be a clash or a different date for the SLB film. With clash though, the film should collect around 100 crore, which wouldn’t be good enough for it to recover costs.

Tamasha (with clash – 135 crore) and (without clash - 190 to 200 crore): Although Tamasha has been scheduled for a Christmas release we are not sure if the producers would want two Deepika Padukone films releasing on the same day. It just wouldn’t make a lot of sense. If there’s any film which will vacate the slot, it seems to be Tamasha as of now. But all things considered, it is still a big film which brings the jodi of Ranbir and Deepika after the success of Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani. Imtiaz Ali knows how to tell a love story and AR Rahman gets the music of Imtiaz’s film right. Tamasha will be a big success whenever it releases. But if the film does manage a solo release during Christmas, it could be the biggest turning point in Ranbir Kapoor’s career – who despite giving some big grossers, isn’t considered to be in the league of the Khans or Hrithik.

Finally, there are high chances that Shahrukh Khan would want to take over Christmas this year. If not with a Rohit Shetty film, then it could be Raees. At the beginning of last year, Welcome Back and Bombay Velvet were the announced Christmas releases, but when Aamir Khan announced his film on the same day, the rest made way for his film. We expect this year to be no different. If SRK-Shetty does happen during Christmas, it will be the biggest release of 2015. Remember, Shetty shoots his films the quickest. He started shooting for Singham Returns on March 12 and released the film on August 15!