Bajrangi Bhaijaan, Prem Ratan Dhan Payo and Tamasha Box Office Prediction

Last part of our box office predictions for the year 2015. You can read Part 1 and Part 2.

We dedicate Part 3 to the biggest releases of the year, which happen to release during the festive weeks of Eid, Diwali and Christmas. While there are reports that Shahrukh Khan wants Rohit Shetty to direct a film for Christmas, there hasn’t been an official just yet. SRK starts shooting for Raees next month.

As things stand today, Salman Khan has two festive releases – Bajrangi Bhaijaan during Eid (Mid-July) and Prem Ratan Dhan Payo during Diwali (2nd week of November). The Christmas releases are Bajirao Mastani and Tamasha, both set for a clash at the ticket window.

Note: Year-beginning Box office predictions are made assuming that films turn out to be fairly well-made with mixed to good word-of-mouth. If a film carries extreme negative reports like Besharam, then the collections could be way below our predictions. At the same time, if a film receives universal appreciation like PK, then even 300 crore wouldn’t be difficult for films like Bajrangi Bhaijaan or SRK-Rohit Shetty film.

Predictions below.

Bajrangi Bhaijaan (240 – 250 crore): After Wanted, Dabangg, Bodyguard, Ek Tha Tiger and Kick, the king of Eid has taken up the slot once again – this time with his Ek Tha Tiger director Kabir Khan, a film that also stars Kareena Kapoor Khan. Bajrangi Bhaijaan is expected to be a film about inter-religion love and we expect a neatly told love story with elements of action and drama. The film is easily the biggest biggie of the year and it will go on to earn a lot of money at the box office.

Prem Ratan Dhan Payo (210 – 220 crore): The title of the film seems very archaic and could keep the youth away from the theaters, but the core audience of Sooraj Barjatya films have always been in the families of small towns and big towns. Barjatya understands the milieu of the family audience better than any director in the country. Prem Ratan Dhan Payo stars Salman Khan and Sonam Kapoor and enjoys a Diwali release (which isn’t quite as great as the Eid or Christmas period for the box office). We are a little apprehensive about the connect it will have with the youth but it should still manage to cross the 200 crore mark.

Bajirao Mastani (with clash – 100 to 110 crores): Ram Leela was one of the biggest surprise hits of 2013, earning over 115 crores in India alone. Very few directors in India can tell a costume drama better than Sanjay Leela Bhansali. He has now chosen to tell the story of the feisty Maratha King Bajirao Mastani and his love story. He has cast his ‘Ram Leela’ lead pair Ranveer Singh and Deepika Padukone and added Priyanka Chopra to the main cast. But the big question is – will Bhansali be allowed a solo release during Christmas? Every big star wants to release his film during Christmas and even the trade / exhibitors wouldn’t be too pleased if a film like Bajirao Mastani gets a solo release. We believe, it would either be a clash or a different date for the SLB film. With clash though, the film should collect around 100 crore, which wouldn’t be good enough for it to recover costs.

Tamasha (with clash – 135 crore) and (without clash – 190 to 200 crore): Although Tamasha has been scheduled for a Christmas release we are not sure if the producers would want two Deepika Padukone films releasing on the same day. It just wouldn’t make a lot of sense. If there’s any film which will vacate the slot, it seems to be Tamasha as of now. But all things considered, it is still a big film which brings the jodi of Ranbir and Deepika after the success of Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani. Imtiaz Ali knows how to tell a love story and AR Rahman gets the music of Imtiaz’s film right. Tamasha will be a big success whenever it releases. But if the film does manage a solo release during Christmas, it could be the biggest turning point in Ranbir Kapoor’s career – who despite giving some big grossers, isn’t considered to be in the league of the Khans or Hrithik.

Finally, there are high chances that Shahrukh Khan would want to take over Christmas this year. If not with a Rohit Shetty film, then it could be Raees. At the beginning of last year, Welcome Back and Bombay Velvet were the announced Christmas releases, but when Aamir Khan announced his film on the same day, the rest made way for his film. We expect this year to be no different. If SRK-Shetty does happen during Christmas, it will be the biggest release of 2015. Remember, Shetty shoots his films the quickest. He started shooting for Singham Returns on March 12 and released the film on August 15!

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125 Comments

  • tamasha will score 260cr with solo release and strong yjhd type wom thus establishing ranbir as the 3rd biggest star of bollywood.

    my predictions hardly go wrong

  • people underestimating prem ratan dhan payo….
    even hny collected 203 cr…..
    Mark my words
    prdp will be huge blockbuster…. movie will definitely cross 300 cr… suraj bharjatya and Salman never disappoint us…
    youth come atleast once for sure but family audience will come in huge no….
    plz don’t underestimate the power of Salman khan….

  • Bajrangi bhaijaan- atbb
    prdp – atbb
    raees-bb
    rohit – srk – atbb
    tamasha-disaster(ranbir bad actor)
    bajirao-flop
    baby-blockbuster
    23 jan akki sir will rock!!

  • The only thing that can make aranbir kapoor film blockbuster is link up rumours and honestly he is not bigger than ajay and akki, that’s the thing media want us to believe. iam quite sure if it wasn’t for india media Rk would be nothing but another Zayed khan.

  • Christmas is the best period if a good movie of a big star releases.
    Diwali is the next biggest but stars are unable to utilize it by releasing crap movie

  • My predictions……

    1. Bajrangi bhaijan- 250-260cr.
    2. PRDP- 240-250cr.
    3. Tamasha- 130cr maximum.(imtiaz films are known for critical acclaimation more than box office collections).

  • Ramadhan- Eid period I meant…

    Every film released over last 5 yrs has been record breaking- openings have been huge and sustained well be it Bhais or kings films…

    Christmas in all honesty has only truly been utilised by Aamir and his films- in between 09 and 2013 the 3 releases by Akki Sir, King and bhai didnt capitalise on the two holiday weekends- come new yrs weekend the films were already limping along whereas Aamirs films had major upturn in collections…!

  • That awkward moment when you realize Indicine omitted the best Christmas release “Taare Zameen Par” because it wasn’t an All Time Blockbuster.

  • SRK-Rohit hurricane on Christmas, hopefully :) & if SRK decides he wants the Christmas release date, everyone will eventually back out.

  • If king and Shetty do make a film together then it wont be shot in record time like Singham was Indicine- dont forget Singham was a remake so script plot was already in place just adjustments were needed but dont think Shetty Sir will remake a film with king in lead… I may be wrong but think after Raees there isnt enough time so Christmas in 2015 will belong to youngistan.

  • if raees will release on christmas then 275 cr is on as action n content make a grt combo n if d content is widely accepted then even 300 cr is on. on d other hand, if srk-rohit shetty film cms instead of raees then 350 cr can b achieve as srk recently said dat shetty’s next will be bigger than hny…

    bajrangi bhaijaan cn collect min 200 cr+

    prdp is hard to predict as d film cn go either way.. if d content (wch is absent in sm recent sallu’s film) gets d appreciation like hahk then it cn touch 400 cr bt if d content will nt b der (just like main prem ki diwani hoon wch released weeks aftr devdas) then it cn become below 150 or even below 140 cr grosser..

    i wud also like to predict ‘fan’ as its a srk film so it cn collect huge in its opening weekend as it will get two holidays in wch 15 aug is national holiday n on dat day fan cn create a new single day record n cn touch even 50 cr+ so weekend cud b 150 cr+ if content is liked+srk’s stardom.. it cn collect huge in its 1st n 2nd week if d content is.liked n cn become a vry huge grosser 200 cr+ lyftym will be best

  • 2015 Christmas for srk,it will definitely happen.
    On Christmas raess or rohit shetty next, no chance for tamasha or BM.
    Seriously I am waiting for tamasha too but this only waiting for rohit,s official announcement for Christmas release

  • bb – 250 cr
    prdp – 300 cr
    tamasha – 160 cr
    some crap movies which become hits
    hrithik – krrish 3
    akki – housefull, housefull 2
    srk – jthj, hny, raone, Don2
    ranbir – yjhd, barfi, rockstar, apgk
    ajay – sos
    ranveer – ramleela
    sallu – dabangg 2, jai ho, bodyguard
    despite sallu fan I didn’t like this movies of sallu….

  • As things stand today BB will be the yrs biggest grosser bcoz PRDP will depend more on its WOM whereas BB will depend more on bhais initial opening prowess so it will open n open BIG… Sooraj Sir I feel should have cast a better heroine for bhai- in HSSH he was paired opposite Sonaki n that just didnt feel right n here Sonam so again the film will rely on bhais starpower and content to get it past 200-250 cr… Think it will surprise alot of ppl but still it will rely more on WOM n repeat audiences to reach a huge total.

  • prdp only 210-220 and bb 230-240…bb prediction is good but prdp sooraj-salman combination only 220…it hav potential to break pk record and emerge as highest grosser…yes the name sounds family but not to b forget even youth loves family movie…
    eg vivaah

  • Bajrangi Bhaijaan or PDRP will be highest grosser of year. This year sure clash Christmas holiday.

  • easily eid period is biggest release date for any movie all movies that released on eid had become blockbuster.

  • As of now my predictions are:-

    BB on Eid- 275cr +
    PRDP on Diwali- 250cr + (huge second week expected as content should be strong)
    BM on Christmas- 150cr (solo release)
    Tamasha on Christmas- 175-225 cr (solo release)

    Both Tamasha and BM need a solo release- Tamasha should be the better choice for Christmas- it has potential to out do YJHD- if music is good then skys the limit- content should be more appealing to youth so again should open the bigger… Best of luck to all 4 films n hope all are solo releases and fully utilise the release periods/ holidays…!

  • My prediction:
    1. Bajrangi Bhaijaan 250 crores
    2. Prem Ratan Dhan Paayo 230 crores
    3. Tamasha 200 crs without clash(I don’t think there would be any clash as both films have Deepika in common)
    4. Bajirao Mastani 120 crores

  • I don’t agree with the predictions of ‘Fan’ though. I’m certain it will cross CE in the worst case scenario, at least. I doubt PRDP will be the biggest grosser. So again it’s going to be between BB and Fan/Raees/Rohit Shetty’s Next.

  • I don’t think srk rohit films comes in 2015, but if raees comes in 2015 then it will release during christmas n i’m 100% sure about it. Rumors floating tamasha postpone for 2016 n BM prepone to 18th dec but i’m sure that young actor don’t get solo christmas release as the release date of raees n airlift yet to decide.

  • My predictions
    Bajrangi Bhaijaan-250 crs
    Prem Ratan Dhan Payo-210 crs
    Tamasha ( without clash)- 220 crs
    Bajirao Mastani (without clash)-135 crs

    Waiting for-Bajrangi bhaijaan,Brothers, Jagga Jasoos,Tamasha and Phantom

  • Ranbir will be rock on Christmas period. No srk somemore on christmas because we already face don2.

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