Bajrangi Bhaijaan, Prem Ratan Dhan Payo and Tamasha Box Office Prediction

Last part of our box office predictions for the year 2015. You can read Part 1 and Part 2.

We dedicate Part 3 to the biggest releases of the year, which happen to release during the festive weeks of Eid, Diwali and Christmas. While there are reports that Shahrukh Khan wants Rohit Shetty to direct a film for Christmas, there hasn’t been an official just yet. SRK starts shooting for Raees next month.

As things stand today, Salman Khan has two festive releases – Bajrangi Bhaijaan during Eid (Mid-July) and Prem Ratan Dhan Payo during Diwali (2nd week of November). The Christmas releases are Bajirao Mastani and Tamasha, both set for a clash at the ticket window.

Note: Year-beginning Box office predictions are made assuming that films turn out to be fairly well-made with mixed to good word-of-mouth. If a film carries extreme negative reports like Besharam, then the collections could be way below our predictions. At the same time, if a film receives universal appreciation like PK, then even 300 crore wouldn’t be difficult for films like Bajrangi Bhaijaan or SRK-Rohit Shetty film.

Predictions below.

Bajrangi Bhaijaan (240 – 250 crore): After Wanted, Dabangg, Bodyguard, Ek Tha Tiger and Kick, the king of Eid has taken up the slot once again – this time with his Ek Tha Tiger director Kabir Khan, a film that also stars Kareena Kapoor Khan. Bajrangi Bhaijaan is expected to be a film about inter-religion love and we expect a neatly told love story with elements of action and drama. The film is easily the biggest biggie of the year and it will go on to earn a lot of money at the box office.

Prem Ratan Dhan Payo (210 – 220 crore): The title of the film seems very archaic and could keep the youth away from the theaters, but the core audience of Sooraj Barjatya films have always been in the families of small towns and big towns. Barjatya understands the milieu of the family audience better than any director in the country. Prem Ratan Dhan Payo stars Salman Khan and Sonam Kapoor and enjoys a Diwali release (which isn’t quite as great as the Eid or Christmas period for the box office). We are a little apprehensive about the connect it will have with the youth but it should still manage to cross the 200 crore mark.

Bajirao Mastani (with clash – 100 to 110 crores): Ram Leela was one of the biggest surprise hits of 2013, earning over 115 crores in India alone. Very few directors in India can tell a costume drama better than Sanjay Leela Bhansali. He has now chosen to tell the story of the feisty Maratha King Bajirao Mastani and his love story. He has cast his ‘Ram Leela’ lead pair Ranveer Singh and Deepika Padukone and added Priyanka Chopra to the main cast. But the big question is – will Bhansali be allowed a solo release during Christmas? Every big star wants to release his film during Christmas and even the trade / exhibitors wouldn’t be too pleased if a film like Bajirao Mastani gets a solo release. We believe, it would either be a clash or a different date for the SLB film. With clash though, the film should collect around 100 crore, which wouldn’t be good enough for it to recover costs.

Tamasha (with clash – 135 crore) and (without clash - 190 to 200 crore): Although Tamasha has been scheduled for a Christmas release we are not sure if the producers would want two Deepika Padukone films releasing on the same day. It just wouldn’t make a lot of sense. If there’s any film which will vacate the slot, it seems to be Tamasha as of now. But all things considered, it is still a big film which brings the jodi of Ranbir and Deepika after the success of Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani. Imtiaz Ali knows how to tell a love story and AR Rahman gets the music of Imtiaz’s film right. Tamasha will be a big success whenever it releases. But if the film does manage a solo release during Christmas, it could be the biggest turning point in Ranbir Kapoor’s career – who despite giving some big grossers, isn’t considered to be in the league of the Khans or Hrithik.

Finally, there are high chances that Shahrukh Khan would want to take over Christmas this year. If not with a Rohit Shetty film, then it could be Raees. At the beginning of last year, Welcome Back and Bombay Velvet were the announced Christmas releases, but when Aamir Khan announced his film on the same day, the rest made way for his film. We expect this year to be no different. If SRK-Shetty does happen during Christmas, it will be the biggest release of 2015. Remember, Shetty shoots his films the quickest. He started shooting for Singham Returns on March 12 and released the film on August 15!

Which is the biggest festival in the industry?

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125 Comments

  • Gabbar should release on christmas period.
    @Indicine, any news baby film? Where prediction of Tevar?

  • I personally want christmas release for youngster because they deserve it they give many hits without holidays so why they cant get christmas release. just because of big stars if they are big stars and they want too show there stardom so release their films on non holiday weekend like akshay and ajay did every year then we can see their real stardom.

  • FAN MOVIE BOX OFFICE PREDICTION
    1st day : 35 to 40 cr
    2nd day : 45 to 50 cr (independence day)
    3rd day : 40 to 45 cr (sunday)
    1 st weekend : 120 to 130 cr
    1 st week : 190 to 200 cr
    2 nd week : 70 to 80 cr
    3 rd week 30 to 40 cr
    remaining week : 20 to 30 cr
    life time: 330 to 350 cr
    THIS YEARE TOP 5 movie :
    1 : RAEES
    2 : FAN
    3 : BB
    4 :PRDP
    5 : BOMBY VALVET

  • Completely agree with Bajrangi Bhaijaan predictions but for PRDP, you have exaggerated the collections I feel. Salman’s aura, Diwali period, everything is fine but the storyline of PRDP looks typical Sooraj Barjatya’s rona-dhona. The same elder brother – younger brother drama and their corresponding conflicts. So I doubt whether it will click to Salman fans first, let alone the neutral fans. Salman suits in larger than life characters and I’m daam sure that in PRDP he is not doing that.
    For me, 200 Cr for PRDP is looking a tough task as of now.
    P.S. : I’m very bad at predicting collections :)

  • christmas time is extreme cold weather in north india with dense fog as well

    not sure why it is said to be the best period……just because 3i, d3 n pk release and were huge grossers, doesnt mean that they wdnt have been that big had they released during eid or diwali..

    for me, its no. of holidays + weather thats most imp…..diwali is the nationwide festival by a margin….just because recently diwali hasnt give big grossers doesnt mean its any less than xmas or eid

    If bajrangi bhaijaan releases on diwali and PRDP releases during eid, then diwali could have the biggest grosser of the year…..its the film that matters the most…..

  • @nipun k3 was crap
    ramleela , barfi, rockstar are crap ask everyone
    or watch it again such a boring emotional movies

  • Don’t underestimate Prem & Barjatya Combo. PRDP Can Cross PK But Necessary 3 Free Run Week. High Tickets Price. Some Scam Like PK.

  • King of insecurity is trying his best to hit the bull’s eye by doing more films but that won’t make him anywhere close to Amir. Aamir’s one film is enough to rule box office for next 5 years. Just one fluke movie called Lungi Express won’t make Sri- rohit combo big. Even if it releases during Christmas, it won’t break 3 idiots record, forget PK or dhoom 3. Only Aamir himself will break PK’s record in India and overseas.

  • salman,srk 250-260 cr with good content,+universal positive wom then 300 cr+ but if nothing new same like before then result collection will be same like before 180-200 cr which they will get due to their star power n high promotion but if 300+ then wom like a pk for that movie. rk with good content 200 cr but khans with good content 260 cr , none expect from akki but he can also be in top if wom is positive but surely khans have more chance to be in top than others.

  • salman,srk 250-260 cr with good content,+universal positive wom then 300 cr+ but if nothing new same like before then result collection will be same like before 180-200 cr which will get due star power n high promotion but if 300+ then wom only like a virus for that movie. rk with good content 200 cr but khans with good content 260 cr , none expect from akki but he can also be in top if wom is positive but surely khans have more chance to be in top than others

  • BB 270-300cr (bcoz eid is on friday or saturedy so weekend is huge n break all the records)

    Fan 220-250 cr (it can chlng the weeknd collection of BB bcoz 15 aug is on satureday)

    bajirao mastani 100-110cr (with clash) 130-140cr (without clash)

    tamasha 120-140cr(with clash) 160-180cr (without clash) n director is imtiaz ali (better known for critically acclaim movies) not ayan mukherji .

    there are reports that raees should occupy the christmas period ….. if its not than the Bajirao mastani and tamasha both will release on christmas bcoz sajid nadiadwala n sanjay leela bhansali both said that our films release on 25th dec n christmas period is a big festival period that can occupy two big releases…..

    prem ratan dhan payo 240-250 cr(if youth does’nt like the movie) n 250 cr bcoz diwali is on wednesday so 5 day weeknd(if youth like or not like the day after diwali day is collects highest single day collecyion in indian boxoffice history ) …… n if youth like the movie than 330-350 cr

  • SALMAN with Eid release. Its for sure that 200 CRORES is like cake walk but guess above 250 CRORES. U need lots of repeat audiences to pitch in which has happened only for D3 and PK. So would say around 215 to 230 CRORES for BB
    As far as PRDP it would definitely be a completely family movie with moral values. But to such a script ll SALMAN do justice (provided there is no action scenes in it) and ll the crowd who go honkers bonkers with SALMAN action sequences come in out in number to watch this. I doubt. Coz all his last releases which went on to become huge grossers had those action scenes which audiences usually associate SALMAN with. So would say would just cross 200 CRORES.
    And as far as Christmas release. If it is a KHAN movie or HR then it has the potential to cross 200 CRORES. And beyond would purely depend on WOM and how well the script is. But to expect Youngistan to cross 200 CRORES even with a solo release with all best holidays. Lolz. Rofl

  • @legend amir khan. Grow up childish moron. If it is out of reach of SRK then it is out of reach for every one. Guess u forgot the first person to cross 3 idiots was SRK with Chennai express. Rofl

  • The chame leon predicted 260cr for tamasha and 170cr for fan. Also said ranbir will replace king and bcm 3rd biggest star of industry. I don’t like srk still these Chame Leone Giri are not digestable for me.

  • @suchit just look amir is jobless after pk where srk have great line up don’t amir will not get dhoom brand or raju hirani again

  • My predictions are
    BB=260-285 cr
    prdp=275-300cr (if liked by youth) otherwise 210-230cr
    fan=215-230 cr
    tamasha=145-170cr
    raees or rohit-srk=250-280 cr

  • I hate 2015

    without Aamir khan and hrithik roshan boring year

    waiting for

    Aamir khan dungal movie
    hrithik roshan mohenjo daro movie

  • As far as PRDP is concerned, its the 4th great collaboration of the evergreen jodi of sooraj ji & salman after eternal ATBBs like MPK , HAHK & a BB like HSSH , so expecting the CONTENT of the movie to be more superstar-ish than salman himself .

    As far as the apprehension of indicine regarding the connect of the movie with today’s youth is concerned I don’t think there should be any, MPK is arguably the most sweetest romantic movie ever made and HAHK unarguably the greatest family movie ever in the Hindi cinema history and these movies wouldn’t have become such mammoth hits without the support of youth of those days, even vivaah – sooraj ji’s last movie involving shahid was a awesome successful venture ( who would have thought that shahid would star in a sooraj ji’s movie at that age?) and in 2006 the movie connected with the youth reasonably well so after just 9 years & in 2015 wouldn’t sooraj ji’s ambitious movie involving his favourite actor who is also the biggest superstar in Bollywood connect well with the youth of today ?

    And probably sooraj ji may be right person to bring back at least some of ‘lost & forgotten’ traditional family & cultural values of the past in the otherwise deteriorating present with this movie, it could happen.
    ya times have changed & so have the youth but trust sooraj ji to reinvent himself with the ever changing youth and make the movie accordingly, so expecting another master class from sooraj ji as this time also.

    even if the movie fails to collect 200 crores but if it can successfully influence some positive change in our deteriorating traditional values like how MPK,HAHK,HSSH & Vivaah did to certain extent ,then that would be the ultimate victory for the movie and not the monetary collections but I would still modestly predict around 250 crores for PRDP just for the reason that it is a sooraj ji-salman movie.

    Bhajrangi bhaijaan – 250+ crores

    Fan – 170-220 crores

    on one hand we have sooraj ji – salman combination movies and on the other hand Raju hirani – aamir combination movies with 100 % mega success ratio, MPK, HAHK, 3 idiots & P.K – 4 of the most biggest & phenomenal cult classics & ATBBs ever!

  • @NVS

    I would like to publicly welcome you back and hope you hang around abit longer than usual… I still am in two minds about your absence being fenuine or not but will give you the benefit of the doubt especially since Indicine said your comments were ultra aggressive hence they were being deleted. Think I speak for most bhai fans that we can certainly do with you being here than being absent…

    That brings me to my next point…
    @anand babu aka @being daring aka @ Boney Kapoor- so you were a chameleon…. I kind of knew but was in denial- just spent the last 30 mins reading that pile of crap you, babuji, nipun n some other imbecile remy wrote on 6th December 2014 on twitter… What a joke- a bunch of chameleons talking about the treacherous activities of another group of chameleons- my God- it looked pathetic n sounded damn right hypocritical- you 4 plus the sambuddha n gauravs of this world are as bad as eachother… Theres one thing I cant stand above everything else n that is chameleonism- it stinks- manipulation has been around since time immemorial but the chaneleonism disease is too rife here n its even in places one wouldnt expect. Today I motion for a lifelong ban on @anand chameleon babu to never EVER return amongst us bhai fans…. Chameleons/ trolls are a thing our enemy srkians are notorious for and the Dynamic is the real King of it but I dont want us stopping to their level. Thsts the last Im gonna say on this subject…!

  • @indicine

    Cannot believe you actually respond to the whims of chaneleons on twitter when your users regularly ask you Qs on Indicine but you pamper to the mischief makers/ trolls on twitter… Plz answer my question- out of the 3 idiots/ chameleons of Indicine- who has used the most IDs….

    Rank them as following please:-

    Chameleon Head Principal- (name….)
    Chameleon Head Boy- (name…)
    Chameleon Student- (name….)

    Ofcourse dynamic would win this poll but hes a loser so let him be I say but for the record Im sure you know whos been upto what and when… Our resident agony aunt nipun has 4 IDs- nkp, jilu, taylor swift plus nipun kumar but does he own any of the baby nipun IDs too..??….!

  • @nipun kumar

    I am NOT an English teacher…

    You havd neither a good brain nor a good eye- I never said I was an English teacher in the last few months- look at my @NVS comment- several spelling mistakes there- granted I was fuming at that anand but a good teacher would proof read his/ her comment atleast acouple of times which I do not…

  • It easy to predict bb(250+)…
    But, no one can predict the collection
    Of PRDP.
    Some time youth likes family drama, depend upon
    Content. Collection may be historical or disappointing.
    FAN will take good opening, nd lifetime collection wil
    Be 210-225cr
    TAMASHA will be finished at 155 cr without clash
    Nd 120with clash
    BM has no chance of cross 120cr clash or without…

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