Udta Punjab Hit or Flop: Box Office Prediction

In the last couple of weeks, Udta Punjab has got crores worth of publicity for free. The uncertainty around release, political angle to CBFC’s decision in ordering cuts, court case, hundreds of opinion pieces – all combined to create unprecedented buzz for a film starring Shahid Kapoor in the lead. A film that would have probably struggled for a 6-crore opening (considering genre and adult rating), was now looking at a 10 crore plus start.

Unfortunately, there was one more twist. The ‘censor copy’ of the film leaked onto the internet on Wednesday evening. Our mainstream media, renowned for its lack of ethics, jumped onto this too and gave publicity to piracy. The PR team panicked and sent out ‘ready-made’ tweets warning people of the ‘virus-infected’ copies that gave more publicity to piracy and they were trolled too, as almost all tweets from journalists and celebrities were what we call ‘copy-paste PR tweets’.

No one knows who leaked the ‘censor copy’ of the film onto the internet. Why would the Censor Board themselves leak the copy that too without removing the ‘censor’ watermark, knowing fully well that they will be in trouble? The makers wouldn’t release their full film on the internet either. It could well be someone from the Censor Board who wants Pahlaj Nihalani out soon.

Moving on to the first day box office prediction of Udta Punjab, the film has the following factors in favour:

  • Audience is curious to know what the film is all about, so it should open well at multiplexes. Interest for the film was restricted only to the main centres, but the controversy and media coverage could help the film get a decent initial at smaller cities too.
  • Diljit Dosanjh is the biggest superstar in Punjab and even though Udta Punjab is not a commercial film – his presence should give a huge boost to the film in East Punjab circuit.
  • The film will be getting a wider release and exhibitors have also given Udta Punjab more shows after the controversy.
  • The film has a strong cast – Shahid Kapoor, Alia Bhatt, Kareena Kapoor Khan and Diljit Dosanjh – all good performers.

Factors that will affect Udta Punjab on Day 1

  • Piracy: It’s unfortunate, but almost everyone knows by now that the full length film is out on the internet. While it’s impossible to put a number to the impact on business, it will definitely mean a lesser total on the first day and it has also negated the big advantage the film got from the controversy. A section of the audience has also decided to watch the film in theatres just because the film has leaked.
  • Udta Punjab is also an adult film with cuss words. So the family audience won’t watch the film and those below 18 years are not allowed to watch it either. This will significantly restrict its business to a small section of the audience. For example, an ‘A-rated’ film like Badlapur, even with chartbuster music, only opened at 7 crore last year and Varun is considered to be a bigger crowd-puller than Shahid.
  • Shahid films have more often than not struggled for a good initial at the box office. Most of his films have under-performed on Day 1 and it has almost always been about good word-of-mouth for his films to be successful.

IndicineFBO: It’s probably the toughest film to predict this year, because there are too many ‘uncommon’ factors in play for Udta Punjab. Very few films get such high pre-release publicity and almost no film is leaked onto the internet two days prior to release. If the word-of-mouth is good, such films huge potential to grow evening onwards at multiplexes. We expect Udta Punjab to collect Rs 8.9 crore on Day 1.

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Will Udta Punjab become a HIT or FLOP? Tell us in the comments section below. Post your predictions for Day 1 too.

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69 Comments

  • First day :- 8.2 !

    It will be just average or flop if film turned out to be crap.

    But with this buzz,If reports of both critics and audience comes positive than A Superhit 100 crore movie 4 sure.

  • It Will Collect More If The Film Was Not Leaked on to the internet.
    Due to This Reason I think Film Will collect Less.
    Its All Depnd On Indian Ppl.If They Come In Large Num and Reject Piracy Then It Will be Huge Hit.
    Hope for the Best.But I Really Feel ‘Bad For Udta Punjab Whole Team.This is Really Unfair That the Film Is LEaked Before Its ReLease :(

  • It is heart breaking to see udta punjab leacked online. This is completely a disrespect to creativity and freedom of expression. Those who has been done this should be jailed at least 10 year. Shame on those who did piracy.

  • My 1st day prediction is 9 cr. Best of luck udta punjab team. Let’s people support UP. Let’s truth win over evil. Incourage creatively discourage piracy.

  • I will definitely watch udta punjab on threaters tomorrow. Really really excited. Hope movie will cross 10 cr on 1st day.

  • This movie need a huge support. There can be also such a cheap work of leaking movie before release by some cheap people in near future. And any film makers and actors can be victims of it. So, we all should be united together against piracy. Let’s watch udta punjab on threaters.

  • These fools dont even know that you can stream a torrent while downloading it. #UdtaVirus LOL.

    But then, what can we expect from people like Karan Johar & Alia bhat. Wish they had gone to school. 😂😂😂

  • This is really really unfair to udta punjab team. Movie deserves better collection. Don’t kill movie kill piracy.

  • First you request people not to watch the film through piracy. Then suddenly you start telling people that the leaked version has virus. LOL.

    Who gave them this idea? The scriptwriter of Shandaar? 😂😂😂

  • This is going to be one interesting box office journey.Hoping for another hit though.I’ll try to post the link to my review of udta Punjab tomorrow, going to watch it first day first show.Also,@Team Indicine,there seems to be some problem,as there are quite a few comments of mine which fail to pass the moderation, despite containing no offensive content.I’ve written an email to you as well but I didn’t get a response. Please try to solve the problem. Thank You!Best of luck to the team of Udta Punjab!

  • All these nautankis are just to find face savers after the movie become a disaster.
    1. Due to controversies people did not come to watch the movie.
    2. Movie was released online so it impacted our collection.
    3. India-Zimbawe t20 impact.
    4. Ongoing controversies between kejriwal and Modi so Delhi guys did not come to watch the movie…
    etc etc.

  • Hundreds of people works hard on making one film but leaking it online is killing their hard work. It is completely inhuman work.

    This is not only sad news for udta punjab ‘s team but also for whole film industry. This type of work can also be happened in future which discourage other film makers to make film on reality. Very bad steps done by some idiots. Udta punjab need huge support.

  • @indicine agree this is the most difficult film to predict cause the buzz they got ruined by piracy and no one can predict it’s impact just checked 25 lakhs people have already downloaded this movie and it’s a big impact and shameful act done by cbfc to ruin but don’t agree with this line that without controversy film would have struggled for 6cr opening come on it would have done minimum 7cr even without any controversy but now the controversy seemed worthless as it got ruined by piracy. I am feeling really sad for the entire team specially for Shahid everytime his luck betrays him and it’s heartbreaking to see and the entire team so much they all gone through in the last 15days and their hard work everything went in vein but only hope the movie is good and audience and critics like this movie so that it can at least get a hit status

  • I can only request everyone plz go and watch this movie then give ur review and plz don’t watch in piracy

  • only alia is looking good and interesting character in trailer other are crap,movie could take good initial due to controversy but i have doubt

  • No matter Udta Punjub will be a hit or flop it is already a big success. It has created huge awareness among the masses regarding the drugs problem of Punjab. From last couple of days all the major news channels have been organising plenty of talk shows on the issue. Common masses are talking about drugs & it’s side effects!!
    #Grand success of UP!!!

  • @indicine:

    What happened to your site???
    More than 50 comments of mine have been awaiting moderation. Valuable time and effort needed to write a comment.
    If there is some technical problems then close the comment section for few days and try to solve the problems as soon as possible. Atleast it won’t take our valuable time and effort!!

  • Why waste all that money in theatres rather than watch it on laptop for free…??
    This way, people in the age 15-18 can also see the movie and others can also save their money..
    Since makers want to send a message, then due to piracy, more people will be able to view the movie so piracy is a good thing in this case…Also, the pirated version is uncut and high on quality so it will be longer and better than theatre version…

    And a lot of people here that are against piracy should know that the movie was gonna be released online 2morrow anyways after first show..

  • Extremely low ratings recieved by udta punjab, even lower than housefull 3!!!
    Guess who is promoting the crap now guyz..??

  • @indicine Everyday we had a new article related to Udta Punjab in the media. There is huge buzz on social media websites like Facebook and Twitter. So what factors are considered in giving the buzz quotient as 5/10?

    Because the amount of publicity this film has got is comparable to the buzz of any big star movie. 5/10 is really very low for a film that has been in the news everyday 2 weeks before its release and garnering headlines. Atleast that’s what I noticed on Times of India and I am really fed up of this now :)

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