Udta Punjab Hit or Flop: Box Office Prediction

In the last couple of weeks, Udta Punjab has got crores worth of publicity for free. The uncertainty around release, political angle to CBFC’s decision in ordering cuts, court case, hundreds of opinion pieces – all combined to create unprecedented buzz for a film starring Shahid Kapoor in the lead. A film that would have probably struggled for a 6-crore opening (considering genre and adult rating), was now looking at a 10 crore plus start.

Unfortunately, there was one more twist. The ‘censor copy’ of the film leaked onto the internet on Wednesday evening. Our mainstream media, renowned for its lack of ethics, jumped onto this too and gave publicity to piracy. The PR team panicked and sent out ‘ready-made’ tweets warning people of the ‘virus-infected’ copies that gave more publicity to piracy and they were trolled too, as almost all tweets from journalists and celebrities were what we call ‘copy-paste PR tweets’.

No one knows who leaked the ‘censor copy’ of the film onto the internet. Why would the Censor Board themselves leak the copy that too without removing the ‘censor’ watermark, knowing fully well that they will be in trouble? The makers wouldn’t release their full film on the internet either. It could well be someone from the Censor Board who wants Pahlaj Nihalani out soon.

Moving on to the first day box office prediction of Udta Punjab, the film has the following factors in favour:

  • Audience is curious to know what the film is all about, so it should open well at multiplexes. Interest for the film was restricted only to the main centres, but the controversy and media coverage could help the film get a decent initial at smaller cities too.
  • Diljit Dosanjh is the biggest superstar in Punjab and even though Udta Punjab is not a commercial film – his presence should give a huge boost to the film in East Punjab circuit.
  • The film will be getting a wider release and exhibitors have also given Udta Punjab more shows after the controversy.
  • The film has a strong cast – Shahid Kapoor, Alia Bhatt, Kareena Kapoor Khan and Diljit Dosanjh – all good performers.

Factors that will affect Udta Punjab on Day 1

  • Piracy: It’s unfortunate, but almost everyone knows by now that the full length film is out on the internet. While it’s impossible to put a number to the impact on business, it will definitely mean a lesser total on the first day and it has also negated the big advantage the film got from the controversy. A section of the audience has also decided to watch the film in theatres just because the film has leaked.
  • Udta Punjab is also an adult film with cuss words. So the family audience won’t watch the film and those below 18 years are not allowed to watch it either. This will significantly restrict its business to a small section of the audience. For example, an ‘A-rated’ film like Badlapur, even with chartbuster music, only opened at 7 crore last year and Varun is considered to be a bigger crowd-puller than Shahid.
  • Shahid films have more often than not struggled for a good initial at the box office. Most of his films have under-performed on Day 1 and it has almost always been about good word-of-mouth for his films to be successful.

IndicineFBO: It’s probably the toughest film to predict this year, because there are too many ‘uncommon’ factors in play for Udta Punjab. Very few films get such high pre-release publicity and almost no film is leaked onto the internet two days prior to release. If the word-of-mouth is good, such films huge potential to grow evening onwards at multiplexes. We expect Udta Punjab to collect Rs 8.9 crore on Day 1.

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Will Udta Punjab become a HIT or FLOP? Tell us in the comments section below. Post your predictions for Day 1 too.

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69 Comments

  • piracy is a crime we should watch this movie in theatre
    btw movie was average 2nd half was a little bit boring

  • Alia’s best performance after HIghway….shahid at his best too … good luck for Udta Punjab ….. gonna watch in theatre 2 … :P

  • But the reviews are uninamously fantastic. With 3 open weeks good wom and surely more controversy in upcoming days . Hence it has now every chance of becoming sahids biggest hit and even enter 100cr club. Remember haider scored 60cr

  • alia’s best performance after HIghway … shahid at his best too …gonna watch this in theatre … all the best for Udta Punjab

  • Though the controversy with Udta Punjab has created lot of buzz among audiences but the piracy will badly affect it’s business.

  • I feel bad for the Makers, the Cast and the crews of Udta Punjab. They worked very hard, invest loads of money to make this movie but because of the stupidity of censor board the movie got leaked online. Its going to be a flop.

  • Shahid Kapoor had 0 stardom he can not give even a 6-7cr opening on his own, if anyone will watch this film?
    It will be only because of controversial buzz and Hot & Sexy Bebo😍😍😘😘

  • In MYANMAR, very high rate see the video on internet, if you see on internet 1 GB cost 3900ks Myanmar money. If you see in theater only 2000Ks medium standard seat. If you buy pirate DVD only 300Ks Myanmar money. So I want to prefer to watch in theater not on internet.
    Btw, UP going to HIT on box office.

  • @Indicine Team
    U people have always failed In the sense that whenever U people Predict Khan’s esp Salman Movie U peolpe Predict high frm the official WHILE for others U always Predict less like Akshay,Ajay,Hrithik.
    Example
    PRDP Pred 43.6 Acc 40.35
    BB Pred 30.5 Acc 27
    KICK Pred 30 Acc 26.5
    SO I AM SURE SULTAN WILL COLLECT B/W 29-30 (31 AT MAX)

  • Children watch A-rated movies in theatre. Many underage people went to watch Badlapur as Varun has immense following among kids for his comedy image and teen girls for his looks. I myself under the age but still watched many movies like Conjuring 2 in theatre. Theatres are not that strict for this rule

  • With so many controversies going around this movie (esp the recent leaking of the censor copy), this one will be a difficult one to predict. I am hoping it crosses 10 cr but 8.9 cr will be a very good start too.

    Apart from the box office, the movie has an amazing star cast of Shahid, Kareena, Alia and Diljit so it should be an amazing experience to watch it. I think Shahid and Alia will have a meatier role comparatively and Alia esp may surprise everyone with her de-glam role.

    In a recent interview, Abhishek Chaubey said that it is not a film that you will forget by the time you reach your car in the parking lot. So hoping it proves to be that kind of movie and also a hit at box office.

  • I think due to the piracy around 8-10% collections will go down.
    But the Udta punjab’s buzz is high .
    Reviews that have come are mostly positive.
    If this movie doesn’t work at the box office then Shahid should retire , as this is his best bet.
    My prediction –
    1st day – 9.25 crs.
    Weekend – 33 crs.
    1st week – 49 crs.
    Lifetime – 70 crs – 75 crs.
    It has 3 open weeks till ‘SULTAN’.

  • @indicine Buzz should be at least 8 not 5.
    My prediction for day 1 is 10. 25 cr. If it has not been leacked it can be 13 cr.

  • The songs failed ,but d controversies Made it hot project.

    Reports of film is bad on SN sites of leak uncut version otherwise this would have been shahid first 100 crore movie . Now only 50 at maximum And even that’s due to controversy.

  • Who cares about this Udtashahid. Weekend will be within 25crs.Great grand Masti Trailer out. Upload it Indicine. Pyar ka bhut chadhega.

  • Something between 9cr-10cr would be very good. I hope that UP will be a HIT as I’m a big fan of Shahid and Chaubey’s films.

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