Shivaay vs Ae Dil Hai Mushkil: Which film will be the bigger grosser?

We won’t be starting a new Live QnA session today, instead we will be answering questions from last week’s QnA. So here we go..

Q. Ae Dil Hai Mushkil or Shivaay, which film has more pros on its side to become the bigger grosser in the long run? (Harsh)

A. Both are big films. Karan Johar films are keenly awaited and he has good cast. Ranbir Kapoor is going through a career low, but he is a fantastic actor. So it’s all about the trailer, music (very important for a Karan film) and eventually the content falling into place. Currently though, Shivaay is the hotter film. If all goes well and the film lives upto its expectations (scale and grandeur wise), then it could take the better opening too.

Q. Political parties are ready to boycott Fan and Raees.. So how much will the collections of the two films be affected? (Mayur Yadav)

A. People need to realise that the government is not supporting boycott of any film that has been passed by the Censor Board of Film Certification. No political party has called for boycott, whether it is Dilwale, Fan or Raees. Some shows of Dilwale were impacted to a certain extent, but both Fan and Raees are unlikely to be affected by disruptions.

Q. Can Akshay, Saif, Sidhu be given chance to release their films on Eid / Dilwale / Christmas like how other leading superstars easily secure these big release dates? Are they not bankable stars when presented with big festive dates? Suppose Airlift was to release on Diwali or Eid what will be it’s collection roughly and will its collection be like Bajirao Mastani?

A. There are different ways to look at this. Ideally, niche films (i.e films with limited appeal outside select centres like Airlift) should not release during festive weekends, because they can’t take full advantage of the holiday period. But assuming content clicks, a film like ‘Housefull 3’ can go on to be a huge grosser at the box office if it releases during Christmas / Eid / Diwali.

Also, higher ticket prices could affect ticket sales if the audience feel the movie isn’t ‘big’ enough. Bajirao Mastani was a magnum opus, a big screen experience, so the audience were more than willing to spend.

In short, big films need big budgets and hence need big dates to recover costs. So, one of the reasons why Khans want one of the three festive weekends, is because they spend upwards of 100 crore on their films. When the stakes are high, a film needs a good release date to have a chance of recovery.

No chance for Saif, his solo films don’t even get an initial during normal weekends. Who is Sidhu?

Q. Why are you not answering my question from last 2 sessions? I asked if Rangoon gets very good word-of-mouth and the multiplex audience like it, can the movie cross 100 crore? (Anshi Goel)

A. We don’t answer such questions because it’s impossible to predict word-of-mouth. And even if we assume the content is good due to director (Vishal Bhardwaj) and actors (Shahid-Saif-Kangana), the other big factor is appeal. Vishal’s films are not known to appeal to a large section of the audience. So if the film is only liked by metro city audience, it will find it difficult to do 100 crore. It has to have wider appeal and entertainment value.

One more QnA article will be published later today.