Prem Ratan Dhan Payo Hit or Flop: Box Office Prediction

Salman Khan is at that stage in his career when everything that he touches, is quite magically turning into box office gold. The superstar himself is putting a lot of hard work into his films, but his popularity and fan following is in a different league altogether. Something that has has ensured that even his average / bad films have been blockbusters at the box office. It’s not just about the fan-following he commands, but the craze for Salman is converting into ticket sales, which is what matters at the end of the day.

Jai Ho was a rare failure, but even that film was one of the Top 10 highest grossers of 2014. Check out Salman’s record since 2010

• Dabangg (2010) – 141 crore – All Time Blockbuster
• Ready (2011) – 120 crore – Blockbuster
• Bodyguard (2011) – 145 crore – Blockbuster
• Ek Tha Tiger (2012) – 199 crore – Blockbuster
• Dabangg 2 (2012) – 154 crore – Blockbuster
• Jai Ho (2014) – 112 crore – Above Average
• Kick (2014) – 233 crore – Blockbuster
• Bajrangi Bhaijaan (2015) – 321 crore – All Time Blockbuster

The record of 7 blockbusters in 8 films is a feat that no actor in the history of Indian Cinema has achieved before. But with the kind of success that Salman has seen in the last few years, expectations from his upcoming films – both from fans and the trade – is unbelievably high.

His latest release ‘Prem Ratan Dhan Payo’ is special for several reasons. One, it’s his first Diwali release in his golden phase (2010 onwards). All other films since 2010 have either released during Eid, Christmas or non-festive weekends. Two, it reunites him with his favourite director, Sooraj Barjatya, who is responsible for giving him his first blockbuster (Maine Pyaar Kiya) and his biggest blockbuster (Hum Aapke Hai Kaun). They reunite 16 years after Hum Saath Saath Hain.

• Maine Pyaar Kiya: Broke the 15 year old record of Sholay. Biggest grosser of the 80s decade. All Time Blockbuster
• Hum Aapke Hain Kaun: Tripled the previous highest grosser of all time, most watched film of the 90s, biggest grosser of the 90s decade. First film to do well in the overseas market and also open it up for films that followed. All Time Blockbuster.
• Hum Saath Saath Hain: Didn’t do as well as it was expected to, but the film was a blockbuster nonetheless.

Barjatya moved on to direct two more films, but none of his films came close to the glory that he achieved back in the 90s.

With Prem Ratan Dhan Payo, there are several questions that are raised. Will the audience still take a liking to typical Sooraj Barjatya family entertainers? Will the youth come out in big numbers? Can the film be as successful as HAHK or MPK and possibly be the most watched film of the century (record currently held by Gadar: Ek Prem Katha).

Salman is almost certain to take the crown for the highest grosser of year, but can PRDP take it one step further and beat the 321 crore business of Bajrangi Bhaijaan? The interest in the overseas business is also huge as Salman, who was considered to be comparatively weak in markets outside India, delivered the biggest ‘first phase’ grosser of all time with Bajrangi Bhaijaan this year. Can he recreate the magic with PRDP?

That, and many more questions will be answered in the next few days as the industry gears up for its biggest release so far this year.

Advance Booking: The opening day of Prem Ratan Dhan Payo will be tough to predict as the response to the advance booking has been fantastic at most places, but below the mark (as compared to Bajrangi Bhaijaan) at a few. There have been reports that all shows of the film have been sold for the weekend, but trade estimates suggest that around 80% of tickets for the 4-day weekend are still available. About 40-45% of tickets for Day 1 are also still on sale as of 7PM on Wednesday (a day before release). Corporate booking is high, something that should contribute a huge chunk towards collections of the film on Saturday and Sunday.

Screen count: Prem Ratan Dhan Payo is getting the widest release of all time, the screen count in India is around 4550 screens. It’s also getting a massive release overseas, around 750-800 screens in Phase 1.

#IndicineFBO: We expect the film to collect Rs 43.6 crore on Day 1.

Check out the detailed box office predictions of Prem Ratan Dhan Payo

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

• Day 1 – 44 cr
• Day 2 - 30 cr
• Day 3 - 32 cr
• Day 4 – 34 cr
• 4-day Weekend – 140 cr
• 8-day First Week - 210 cr
• Final - 300 cr+ (Blockbuster / All Time Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

• Day 1 – 43 cr
• Day 2 - 27 cr
• Day 3 – 28 cr
• Day 4 – 30 cr
• 4-day Weekend – 128 cr
• 8-day First Week – 185 cr
• Final - 240 cr (Hit / Super Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

• Day 1 – 42 cr
• Day 2 - 24 cr
• Day 3 - 22 cr
• Day 4 – 22 cr
• Weekend – 110 cr
• First Week - 155 cr
• Lifetime - 175 cr (Below Average / Average)

Stay tuned to the coverage of Prem Ratan Dhan Payo on Indicine. If the film gets a good response, except lots of articles with comparisons, records and more.

Until then, enjoy the film in theatres. We wish you and your family a very Happy Diwali. Thank you for your support, love and comments!