IndicineLBO: Trade expectations from 2017 films

It’s that time of the year when we begin looking forward to what’s in store for the new year. 2017 is packed with almost all major weekends booked well in advance.

Salman Khan has taken two of the biggest festive weekends of 2017 – Tubelight on Eid and Tiger Zinda Hai on Christmas. The biggest superstar from the south, Rajnikanth, takes the Diwali weekend for his next film ‘2.o’ also starring Akshay Kumar as the lead villain.

Shah Rukh Khan has announced his film with Imtiaz Ali for the ‘Independence Day’ weekend, while Varun Dhawan has booked ‘Judwaa 2’ for the extended Dusshera – Gandhi Jayanti weekend next year.

For our initial ‘IndicineLBO’ predictions for 2017, we decided to ask people from the trade, industry and a few others who we think are ‘box office aware’ and can give us realistic predictions. More than 60 people were asked, most of them from the trade (exhibitors, distributors etc) for their expectations and the number in the table below is the ‘average’ of all predictions that they made.

Check it out:

Note: All predictions were asked to be made on the assumption that the films will carry ‘mixed to good’ word-of-mouth. The above mentioned films could collect a lot less if they are rejected or much more if the word-of-mouth is excellent.

Some points:

• Salman Khan films are in a different league altogether when it comes to trade expectations. The trade and the industry expect Kabir Khan’s Tubelight to become the highest grosser of the year, followed very closely by ’Tiger Zinda Hai’. The high expectations are understandable too as Salman should get a solo release during two of the biggest weekends of 2017.
• The trade believes only two films – Tubelight and Tiger Zinda Hai – will cross the 200 crore mark next year.
• Expectations are high from the two South films - Baahubali: The Conclusion and Robot 2.0 – both potential 150 crore plus grossers in Hindi.
• The two Shah Rukh Khan films are expected to score somewhere around the 150 crore mark too. Raees, the trade believes, will win the clash against Kaabil by a fairly big margin. The Imtiaz Ali film carries high expectations, it has a good weekend too and should get a solo release.
• If Varun Dhawan manages to achieve the kind of numbers that the trade expects out of him, he’ll take big strides in the industry in 2017. He has the biggie ‘Judwaa 2’, which has a fantastic release date.
• Akshay Kumar has two slightly off-beat films in 2017, which explains why Jolly LLB 2 and Toilet: Ek Prem Katha are carrying ’80 crore’ expectations. He could over-achieve if those films turn out to be very well made, Toilet could get tax exemptions too.
• Padmavati was the big shocker to us, because the film is being made on a massive budget and Bhansali is returning after Bajirao Mastani. But the trade doesn’t trust Sanjay Leela Bhansali until he actually delivers.
• Arjun Kapoor too could have a solid 2017 if his two films – Half Girlfriend and Mubarakan – work at the box office. Both films are expected to appeal to a wider section of the audience.
• Aamir Khan only has a cameo in ‘Secret Superstar’, but very little is known about the film. The expectations are quite high because it’s being produced under the ‘Aamir Khan Productions’ banner.